Saquon Barkley fantasy outlook: How much impact will disgruntled Giants star have in 2023?

Discussing Saquon Barkley’s fantasy football impact for the 2023 NFL season won’t matter if he wouldn’t play for the New York Giants.

Skipping the season is an option after the contract negotiations between both sides fell through. The Giants reportedly offered a three-year extension worth up to $11.5 million annually, with total guarantees of up to $23 million.

However, Barkley disagreed with the terms because it was around $2 million below his asking price. The two-time Pro Bowler wanted to be paid according to his impact on offense. After all, he accounted for nearly 30 percent of the team’s yards on offense.

He also tweeted after the impasse:

“It is what it is”

Without a new deal in place, Saquon Barkley has two options left. First, sign the $10.1 million franchise tag and play for the Giants in 2023. Second, skip the 2023 season and return to the negotiating table next year.

If he chose the second scenario, he wouldn’t have any fantasy football impact for 2023. Worst yet, not having him will also impact whatever bite they have in the passing game. The Giants’ offense becomes one-dimensional, and opposing teams would rather have Daniel Jones beat them with his passing.

Barkley sitting out 2023 will be an unfortunate follow-up to a bounce-back season wherein he helped the Giants make a postseason return after five years.

The Pennsylvania native had 1,312 yards (fourth among running backs) and ten touchdowns. He also added 338 receiving yards from 57 catches. The former Penn State standout also finished second behind Josh Jacobs in total touches with 352.

Image credit: Next Gen Stats on Twitter

Those numbers translate to 284 points last season, per NFL Fantasy. He ranked fifth at his position behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Derrick Henry.

Meanwhile, his 227 fantasy points in standard formats put him in sixth place behind Jacobs, McCaffrey, Henry, Ekeler, and Nick Chubb. His 284 points in points per reception (PPR) ranks him fifth, while his 255.5 points in Half PPR makes him sixth.

Therefore, Saquon Barkley is a significant contributor regardless of the fantasy format. It won’t be surprising if he gets drafted in the first round of leagues with 14 to 20 participants.

Saquon Barkley is primed for another stellar season

The projections for Saquon Barkley’s statistics for 2023 by NFL Fantasy and FantasyPros are not far off. The former has him at 1,163 rushing yards, 399 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. Meanwhile, the latter predicts his numbers at 1,142 rushing and 352 receiving yards, to go with nine scores.

The Giants’ 2023 season looks imposing, considering that two of their three division rivals made last year’s playoffs. This season, they will also play AFC East teams and the San Francisco 49ers.

While the Niners were ranked second in rushing yards allowed, the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New England Patriots were ranked fourth to sixth, respectively.

But based on last year’s numbers, those are the only top-ten rushing defenses Saquon Barkley and the Giants will face in 2023. In their division alone, the Dallas Cowboys ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed, while Eagles ranked 17th. The Washington Commanders were at 11th.

Facing these teams twice in the regular season would allow Barkley to rack up many yards. He can also put up big numbers against the New York Jets (ranked 16th), Las Vegas Raiders (19th), and New Orleans Saints (24th).

Barkley may also have a heyday against the Green Bay Packers (26th) and the Seattle Seahawks (30th).

However, dreaming of solid numbers from Saquon Barkley can only come true if he signs on the dotted line and commits to the Giants’ cause.