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Left to Right - Kawhi Leonard's Toronto Raptors' jersey, Nick Nurse and Kyle Lowry
The 2017-18 NBA regular season was a record-breaking campaign for the Toronto Raptors, setting a franchise record for wins (59) and winning their fourth consecutive Atlantic division title. Unfortunately, the postseason didn't go as planned for the team from the North.
Despite their success and achievements in the 2017-18 regular season, the Raptors had to slog hard through 6 games in the first round against the Washington Wizards but what transpired in the next round against the Cleveland Cavaliers surprised everybody. They didn't just lose to the LeBron James-led squad but they got swept by the 4th seeded Cavs, bringing an abrupt and far too early end to a season that had legitimate championship aspirations.
Following their elimination, it would have required a very brave front office to stick with the same roster and coaching staff. In fairness to the management, the franchise had already done so, with the core trio of guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, and head coach Dwane Casey for over six seasons which included three seasons with 50+ wins.
But that's all in the past, as the offseason is almost near its end, here's a preview the 2018-19 season for the Raptors:
Offseason Activity
The Toronto franchise's offseason is headlined by their early morning trade on 18th July for disgruntled San Antonio Spurs' superstar Kawhi Leonard. Through the deal, the team also received Danny Green in exchange for 4-time All-Star DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 first-round pick.
But this move still came almost two months after their exit from the 2018 postseason. The first consequence from their elimination was Dwane Casey, who was fired after coaching the team to a 320-238 (57.3%) over seven full seasons. The front office replaced Casey with his assistant Nick Nurse, who was named the NBA D-League Coach of the Year in 2011 and twice led the Raptors' D-League affiliate Rio Grande Valley Vipers to two D-League Championships in 2011 and 2013.
The firing of the coach and trade pretty much summed up the summer for the Raptors but the franchise also added free agent forward Greg Monroe to bolster their frontcourt depth.
Squad Weakness - Defense and Roster Chemistry
Roster chemistry and continuity is going to be a huge issue for the Raptors in the upcoming season. Yes, a majority of their squad is still the same but they were key additions and changes made to the roster. Starting shooting guard DeRozan was a huge part of the team's offense and now that has to be restructured around a new starting All-Star caliber duo of Lowry and Leonard.
Simply by math, the team's roster has changed only by two players but the magnitude of that change will be visible in the early days of the 2018-19 season. In previous seasons through bad games, the guard combo of Lowry and DeRozan had their off-court chemistry to fall back on while Leonard doesn't really have anything of that sort with anybody on the team except Danny Green, who got traded to the franchise with him in the deal.
If the key roster changes weren't enough, the Toronto franchise also has a new coach in Nick Nurse. He has been with the squad as an assistant since 2013 so he's no alien to the structure or functioning of the organization but still.
Let's not forget their defense, especially when it matters the most. Although they were 5th in the regular season for defense, they were torn apart in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. In the postseason, they ranked 14th out of the 16th teams in defensive rating.
Leonard's addition helps that but from a defensive standpoint, they still have nobody who could serve as a reliable anchor amongst their bigs in the paint - Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, Greg Monroe or Jonas Valanciunas.
Team Strengths - Two- Way Wing Depth & A Top 5 Talent
Despite all their regular season success, especially in the past three seasons, the Raptors have consistently failed to deliver when in the Playoffs. Multiple reasons have been cited as the issues and one of them stood out - having a top 5 two-way caliber player.
They were led by Lowry and DeRozan in previous years and it's not making headlines saying that Leonard is far far better than the 4-time All-Star shooting guard. In fact, a case can easily be made, that if healthy, Leonard is among the top 3 players in the league (along with Kevin Durant and LeBron).
His addition along with Danny Green allows the Raptors to boast off about a strong, reliable and deep wing strength in this current era of positionless basketball. Along with second-year player OG Anunoby, this wing trio could wreak havoc defensively and if used right, each of these three players can be very effective on offense as well. In addition to this trio, the Raptors also have CJ Miles and Normal Powell as very useful wing players that they can use.
Opportunities & Threats
The opportunity and threat for the Raptors during the 2018-19 season will be Kawhi Leonard's impending free agency in the summer of 2019. Will he do a Paul George and re-sign with the team based on how well the year goes or will he eventually end up where he's always wanted to - in Los Angeles?
President of Basketball Operations Masai Ujiri has taken the same gamble Sam Presti, President of Basketball Operation for the Oklahoma City Thunder, took last year. Ujiri expects the team's structure, functioning and atmosphere along with the city to convince Leonard to stay and re-sign with the team as a free agent.
If he does, the team has received their next star for a long-term and in a LeBron-less East, they could build around Leonard for a realistic shot at winning a championship. If he doesn't, the team could quickly go into rebuild mode with their books being free of any huge payments to any player from 2020 onwards.
Predictions for the season
Saying the Raptors will have a slow start isn't breaking the internet. In fact, they might surprise everybody if they start the season strong and are leading the Conference around Christmas time. Either way, at the end of the campaign, I predict them to win 50+ games for a fourth straight season.
I believe the number of wins they have above 50 is what will really define their season and give some insight into what their Playoff campaign could look like. Leonard and Lowry will most probably be on the All-Star rosters come February.
The impending Leonard free-agency is going to loom over the team all through the season. It's going to be a talking point after every loss. For the first time in a few years, Leonard's compatibility with the team would be seen as a bigger mission than the team's short-term success in the 2018-19 season. So it matters, how Leonard will get along in Toronto and with the players on the roster.
