2018-19 NBA Season Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a lot of noise last summer with the acquisitions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony via trade. They seriously thought they were going to be able to contend for an NBA championship.

Soon after, their hopes faded.

They started with an 8-12 record, followed by a good two-month run, which ended with Andre Roberson's season-ending injury. OKC finished the season with a single additional win compared to 2016-17 and an embarrassing first round exit in the playoffs.

Entering this season, the Thunder set the bar much lower. They worked on constructing a more balanced roster to keep them in the playoff picture of a very competitive Western Conference, hoping to advance through the first round, at least. They also made economical moves to avoid the daunting $300M payroll.

Let's see how their team is set up for the 2018-19 season:

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Offseason Activity

Thunder GM, Sam Presti

The first thing on Sam Presti's agenda this summer was to re-sign Paul George. He hoped the team would achieve something during the 2017-18 season and it will act as their free-agent pitch to him. Of course, the Thunder failed to do so, but apparently, his strong relationship with Russell Westbrook convinced him to stay and sign a 4-year/$136.9M deal.

Second, he had to deal with Carmelo Anthony, after his disappointing performances last year. In order to dump his $27.9M salary, they had to get some salary back, so they acquired Dennis Schröder, who will earn $15.5M in each of the next three years, and sent Melo to Atlanta.

OKC also re-signed forward Jerami Grant, who showed great improvement, to a 3-year/$27M deal, and stocked on wing players, adding Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot from Philadelphia, former Kentucky standout Hamidou Diallo, and Boston's Abdel Nader. To finish up the roster, they signed Nerlens Noel to be their backup center, hoping he will live up to his college-days potential, and last year's surprising jackpot, Raymond Felton.

Squad Weaknesses

Roberson mirrors the Thunder's roster: great defense, poor shooting

OKC's biggest weakness is shooting. The Thunder ranked 24th in the league last year in three-point percentage. They were also one of just five playoff teams to have three players or less who shoot better than 36% from beyond the arc.

They didn’t really seem to solve this problem, since none of the players they added this offseason has a reliable shot. Both Schröder and Luwawu-Cabarrot averaged less than 34% from three-point range for their careers so far and Diallo has to adjust to the NBA's three-point line. Nader did shoot just under 36% for the Celtics last year, but he averaged less than 1.5 three-point attempts per game.

Another problem OKC had last year was bench scoring, averaging 26.4 points per game, second-worst record in the league. Grant, who was the primary scorer off the bench, will likely be a starter for the team this year, meaning someone else will have to take his job. It will most likely be Schröder, who averaged 11 points a-night as a backup PG for the Hawks in 2015-16, but will have to re-adjust after playing as a starter for the past two years.

Team strengths

OKC's defense and Adams' offensive rebounds were crucial last year

One of the things OKC showed consistently through most of the previous season was defense. Until the injury that prematurely ended the season of defensive anchor, Andre Roberson, the Thunder had the fifth best defensive rating in the league. They also held their opponents to just 101.8 points per game, fourth lowest in the NBA. Roberson's rehabilitation is going well and he should be back before the end of 2018.

Additionally, OKC made a living off scoring in the fast break. The Thunder were ranked fourth in the league in fast-break points with 15.2 a night. With the addition of some fast-paced players and removal of Carmelo Anthony, OKC should continue to enjoy fast break scoring this year as well.

Another crucial feature to the Thunder is offensive rebounds and second-chance points. OKC led the league in both categories last year, mostly thanks to Steven Adams, who averaged 5.1 offensive rebounds per game. The Big Kiwi is constantly improving and his size and strength will play a big part in the Thunder's success next year.

Opportunities and Threats

Billy Donovan has a younger team, but has to find an offensive scheme that works

This summer, the Thunder rejuvenated their roster. After trading Melo, waiving Singler and the retirement of Collison, OKC added an abundance of new and young players, aged 25 or younger. Their average age dropped from 28.2 last year to around 26 before the start of this season. For a team that depends on energy and pace, this mix of young and hungry players and the veteran leadership of Westbrook and George should give them the potential to run teams to the ground.

The biggest threat to the Thunder might be the inability to score in an organized offensive possession. What characterized OKC's offense last year was the lack of strategy from Billy Donovan's side; it seemed like the Thunder improvised every time they went up the court. Donovan's entire offensive tactic was built on his defense creating easy chances the other way. Even though the team is more balanced defensively this year, it is still too little for a team to count on come game time.

If Billy Donovan could fix his problem on the offensive end, his defensive tactics will come through more efficiently.

Predictions for the Season

The Thunder will grind their way to the playoffs

The Thunder finally have the roster Billy Donovan thought he had last year, before the Melo trade. A team built from hard-working players, led by two All-Stars who can push them through the postseason. What they did earn during that year is the development of players like Steven Adams and Jerami Grant, who both will play a big role for the team this year.

Overall, OKC looks like a more talented and fast-paced version of the "Grit 'n Grind" Grizzlies; a tough defensive team, yet limited offensively. That Memphis team was good enough to have three +50-win seasons and make a conference finals appearance. Even though they will battle through a tough Western Conference, they should return to the playoffs and try to make amends for last year.

I predict the Thunder will have an OK start, at least until Andre Roberson is 100% healthy. They will finish with 50-52 wins and have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, which they will use to advance this time. Making the Western Conference Finals won't be a stretch, but only if everything lines up perfectly.

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