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Another installment of my 2018-19 season preview. So far, I have ranked the top 10 players in the East, the West, and the Eastern Conference playoff picture prediction, and now the most difficult piece I have written has arrived.
There will be a lot of debate of where teams will rank in the West, and that's because some teams made moves, others lost some key players, but overall it remains the stronger conference. You could argue that there are four teams contending for the 7th and 8th seed.
Throughout the season there are going to be many conversations and discussions of ending the two conferences and just doing the 16 best teams in the league. For now, the playoff format remains unchanged.
I have the Trailblazers and Pelicans not making the playoffs next year. Them not making it is not because I don't believe they have talent. The Pelicans have in my opinion the best big man in the game, and the Trailblazers have one of the highest scoring backcourts in the league.
The reason I don't believe they will make it is because of the talent ahead of them. The Pelicans lost Rajon Rondo, who was a big part of their playoff run last year and helped control the offense. He has one of the highest basketball IQs in the league and will hurt the Pelicans by not being there.
The Trailblazers weaknesses were exposed in the playoffs, and rather than fixing the problem, they remained in the same team. They increased their depth in the backcourt with their draft picks and the signing of Seth Curry, but it was neither enough nor what they needed to do during this offseason. These two teams would make the playoffs in the East no question, but they are victims of the tough West.
#8 San Antonio Spurs
The 8th seed was tough. I had the Trailblazers, Pelicans, and Spurs competing for the spot. In the end, I trusted Gregg's coaching and ability to get the best game out of all of his players above the other two.
The Spurs are the predicted 8th seed. Last year they finished as the 7th seed with 47 wins. A lot of people commented on how ridiculous this is, considering the team was comprised of LaMarcus Aldridge and no other star, but some quality role players.
Adding DeMar DeRozan is already an upgrade for their team from last year because the Spurs won those 47 games without Kawhi. I'm not saying DeMar is going to play at an MVP level and lead this team far into the playoffs, but his addition is enough for the Spurs to stay relevant in the talent growing Western Conference.
Gregg Popovich is arguably one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, he has found a way to get the best from his players and stay competitive. It may take some time to adjust with the loss of Green, Parker, and Leonard, but this team should win around 44+ games. It is less than last year, but the conference is tougher than getting a better roster does not necessarily translate to more wins.
It will be interesting to see Dejounte Murray's development this season, I believe he has a great future in the NBA and can be a quality point guard of the future for the team. Chip Engelland is one of the best shooting coaches in the league and is an assistant for the Spurs. He reshaped Kawhi's form to go from a weak shooter to being respectable and being deadly on any given night.
Chip will help Dejounte and DeMar improve their shot, which in theory is the biggest weakness for the Spurs right now. They may play an older style, with Aldridge going to work in the post, and DeMar being one of the best mid-range shooters in the game, but you must trust Pop.
#7 Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will be one of the more interesting teams to follow this coming season. They grabbed a potential steal of the draft with Michael Porter Jr. at pick 14 and were able to sign Isaiah Thomas to a cheap deal. They are winners of the offseason for the bargains they were able to snag.
The Nuggets could have made the playoffs last year if Paul Millsap hadn't missed a significant portion of the season. Obviously, we don't live in a world of hypotheticals, but as a result of last year, this team should be playing with a chip on their shoulders. The development of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris will be vital for the team going forward. The two of them averaged around 17 points per game last season.
If they can push that to over 18 for each of them, alongside Will Barton and Isaiah Thomas' scoring off the bench, and Michael Porter being what scouts originally thought he could be, the Nuggets could be one of the highest scoring teams in the league. They have the pieces, its just a matter of if they fit.
Role players like Tyler Lydon and Trey Lyles will be a good bench frontcourt presence if Millsap and Porter need rest. It is a very deep team and could run multiple rotations. The Nuggets do lack a traditional playmaking point guard. Jamal Murray is a good player and has the potential to be a great one, but he isn't a playmaker.
Isaiah Thomas has always been a score-first guard as well. The playmaking will come from their All-Star caliber talent in Nikola Jokic. I predict Jokic is going to have a great season with his team getting better around him. It will be tough to make the All-Star team with how many players can make it, but he should have a big year.
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves
The chemistry problems that were exposed this summer will hurt the Timberwolves. I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs, but I trust when the game is on the line Butler and Thibodeau will focus on the game and the game only.
If Butler is able to stay healthy the entire season, the team will win a lot of games, he is a difference maker with his strong two-way game and his intense work ethic. After he got injured last year, the Timberwolves' level of play dropped drastically and were fortunate to grab the 8th seed. Andrew Wiggins needs to be consistent. If you watch Wiggins play, you will notice his lack of aggression attacking the basket and his one-dimensional game.
He needs to develop other aspects of his game to help the Wolves. He has talent, no one is denying he is a talented player. He just isn't showing it, and as a result is getting a lot of backlash from analysts and media for not being the "Canadian Lebron" that was dubbed in high school. Obviously those expectations were ridiculous, he's only 23 and still could become an All-Star at some point, but for now, he needs to become a better defender, passer, and rebounder.
Karl Towns has the potential to be one of the best big men in the league, but he will never achieve that potential if he doesn't improve defensively. Many expected the additions of Butler and Thibodeau to rub off on him defensively, but it hasn't happened....yet. Towns have shown flashes that he could be a good defender, but he needs to work harder and become a more two-way player.
The team can't only rely on Butler to carry the defensive load. Overall the team has talent and All-Star names on their roster, but they need to stay healthy, be consistent, and improve defensively.
#5 Utah Jazz
We go from one of the worst defensive teams in Minnesota to a team who has the best defender in the game with Rudy Gobert.
The Jazz are going to be tough to play with Gobert hopefully playing the full season. He is a top 5 center in the league right now, some may argue he's top 3. He is the best defender in the game. Quinn Snyder was a coach of the year candidate and was able to coach his team to a surprise playoff run after many experts predicted the Jazz missing the playoffs before the 2017-18 season had begun.
Donovan Mitchell is going to be a star, and it's hard to predict how much of a jump he will experience between year 1 and 2 in the league, but should provide 20+ points for the team. After his big playoff run, he could average 23 to 24 points per game if he carries that same momentum for all 82 games. Joe Ingles is one of the best 3 point shooters in the league after he shot 44% from behind the arc this past season.
There are two questions that will be holding the Jazz back this season. Who is going to provide secondary scoring behind Mitchell and how Dante Exum will play next year. Exum just signed a big contract, that shows the team has faith in his ability.
However health has been a huge problem for the Australian point guard, his large size will be a defensive advantage when guarding smaller guards. Offensively we are still yet to see what he can contribute on a healthy and consistent basis.
#4 Los Angeles Lakers
They added the King. Easily it is the biggest signing of free agency and helped propel the Lakers from the lottery-bound post-Kobe era to a potential four seed in the playoffs next year.
This has become a meme team. The additions of Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, JaVale McGee, and Lavar Ball around the corner is going to help improve the publicity of the team. Whether it is good or bad will depend on team performance. LeBron is still the best player in the game, he led a struggling Cavs team to the finals. His playoff play will be seen as one of the greatest single-person playoff performances of All-time.
Now he has talent around him. The problem is that the talent isn't established yet, the team is young and still improving with Kuzma, Ingram, Hart and Ball. All four of those players will improve this coming season to varying amounts.
Brandon Ingram and Kuzma have shown they can be quality scorers in the league, they just require more time, in Ingram's case he may want to look to become stronger too. Lonzo had a good rookie year, it wasn't great and not up to par to what his father had predicted, but averaging 10, 7, and 7 is good for a rookie point guard.
What will the additions of Stephenson, Beasley, and McGee bring? Who knows. It will be interesting to see how they fit with the team. Beasley can score the ball and he provides that scoring off the bench for the second unit. Stephenson has struggled to play on any team that isn't the Pacers, but he will bring intensity which helps motivate the younger players. McGee is a positional need, he's a decent center in the NBA and center is the weakest position on the Lakers roster, so he will add some depth.
Rajon Rondo is the most interesting addition. His basketball IQ is off the charts and brings a high intensity to the game that will challenge Lonzo Ball. Rondo has had trouble getting along with coaches and it is unclear whether he will get along with a perfectionist like player in LeBron James.
Chemistry will be the biggest issue for the Lakers. Magic and LeBron have discussed a 3-year plan, so they may not need to make a big playoff run this year and will wait until next year to try to sign Kawhi Leonard.
#3 Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder made some small moves that will help their team. Obviously, the biggest move was resigning Paul George. However, the additions of Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel will help the team win a few more games and possibly be the difference makers in the playoffs.
Noel did not have the best season last year, but that is a result of the reduction minutes he experienced in Dallas. A couple of years ago, he was seen as a potential defensive anchor for the Mavericks, and if he can unlock that potential this year, he will tremendously help the Thunder's defense.
Last year, the Thunder clearly faced a problem of lack of depth. By trading for Dennis Schroder, they have a quality sixth man of the year candidate, who can play alongside Westbrook and George in close games. Schroder is a good starting point guard who showed his scoring and playmaking ability last year with the Hawks after he took the reigns once Teague had left. As a scorer off the bench, he will allow Westbrook to get some rest while keeping the Thunder competitive and not losing any momentum when the starters need rest.
Losing Carmelo is a positive for the Thunder. It is not a shot at Carmelo, but it just wasn't the right situation for him. He struggled in Billy Donovan's system and to co-exist with Westbrook. Statistically speaking, the Thunder are better without Carmelo. Stats aren't everything, so we will have to see.
Andre Roberson will be healthy next year, some analysts have argued his injury in the playoffs was when the playoff tide had turned. His defensive intensity will cause havoc for other players, but he still remains a liability on offense. The Thunder have improved their depth and assuming Paul George and Russell Westbrook remain strong and play at an All-Star level, the team will improve last year.
#2 Houston Rockets
The Rockets suffered significant blows to their team with the loss of Ariza and Mbah a Moute. These two players were great two-way players that helped the Rockets a lot on the defensive end of the floor.
The Rockets were the second best team in the league last year and were the greatest threats to the Warriors. While the Warriors stayed atop this offseason, the loss of those two quality role players will put the Rocket back.
They did add Carmelo Anthony. It still remains unclear about how he will help. He had a bad year with the Thunder last year, and some analysts have said that by adding Carmelo the Rockets will be worse. That sounds harsh, but there are stats that show that to be true.
However, stats aren't the entire picture, yes it is important but maybe a change of scenery and culture will push Carmelo to work harder and take the necessary steps to help the Rockets push for the NBA finals.
The Rockets still have their All-Star level backcourt with Chris Paul and James Harden. Harden is still in the prime of his career and will be in the running for MVP as he has been every year for the past few seasons. Chris Paul did have a good year last year and could have been an All-Star, but he is getting older and his health still remains a concern. The Rockets did take a step back, but they will still be contenders for the championship.
#1 Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are winners of the offseason because they remained atop of the league. They are possibly the greatest team of All-Time. They still have the defensive intensity and leadership of Draymond Green, the best 3-point shooter of All-Time with Steph Curry, one of the best scorers in the game in Kevin Durant, and one of the best two-way guards in the game in Klay Thompson.
Signing DeMarcus Cousins has been overreacted by fans. When he was healthy, Cousins was the best center in the game, but he's going to miss a big chunk of the season. He will be coming off a torn achilles, which is one of the worst injuries a basketball player can have.
The Warriors are again the favorite to win the championship and for the first time, they won't be seeing LeBron in the finals. Their finals will be between most likely the Celtics, who will put up a very competitive final and they are the best chance of pushing the Warriors off the championship run.
