5 low-risk high reward players to consider in NBA fantasy drafts

With the NBA season right around the corner, fantasy basketball drafts are in full swing. The top of the draft is fairly standard, with the three picks typically being Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic. Even beyond that point, the rest of the first round and into the second includes a list of names with little variance aside from outliers.

If your top player happens to get injured, the season could be screwed from the jump but that is part of the luck that comes with fantasy sports. Where players can really separate themselves are the late picks in their NBA drafts where value can be found.

There is minimal risk when you reach the seventh round or so and onwards since there are likely to be undrafted players who emerge and become similarly or even more valuable.

Here are five NBA players I view as low-risk, high reward fantasy basketball picks in a standard points league.

#5 Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield is projected around the eighties in most NBA fantasy drafts from what I have seen. At that point in the draft, there are not many 20 points per game scorers on the board.

Not to mention that many leagues grant additional points for each three that are converted, and Buddy Hield is regularly one of the top three marksmen from beyond the arc in the association. He usually trails Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard, who are both easy first round selections.

While Hield does project to come off the bench behind Tyrese Haliburton in the 2021-22 NBA season, his entire focus this season will be on scoring when he steps in. Despite his vocal unhappiness with the role, Hield has previously thrived when coming off the bench and could even find himself in the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year conversation.

Buddy Hield's scoring output isn't going to slow down significantly to the point where he's not worth a pick in the eighties.

#4 Klay Thompson

For the splash brother, it's all about how far he falls in your individual NBA fantasy league. He is returning to the Golden State Warriors from a torn ACL after nearly two full seasons of being sidelined.

The seventh round, or earlier, would be a stretch for a player returning from injury who is not scheduled to be available for the NBA season opener. But if the tenth round or further comes around and one of the best shooters of all time is still on the board, I would give it some serious consideration.

While returning from injury, I would expect his defense to take the most significant toll. Three-point shooting and scoring holds significant value in fantasy NBA basketball, and Klay Thompson is known to do that at an elite level.

Taking a flier in the late rounds on Klay Thompson could pay off handsomely if you are willing to be patient.

#3 Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey during the 2021 NBA Rookie Photo Shoot

In standard leagues that reset every season, rookies are not typically valued very highly. Maybe Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green will garner some mid-round consideration because of their likeliness to be a focal point of their teams from the jump.

Josh Giddey is a name that most people will overlook, but he has proven to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of categories. During his time in the NBL, the 19-year-old 6'8" point guard averaged 12.2 points, 8.4 assists, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in 32.1 minutes of playing time.

Expecting those averages to settle down is somewhat understandable, but take into account the NBA team he was drafted to and their current focus. The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to fully intend to develop their young talent through any growing pains.

Players that do a little bit of everything reward fantasy owners kindly, and Josh Giddey fills that mold. He could also be available in the final rounds or as a free agent.

#2 Jonas Valanciunas

Valanciunas during New Orleans Pelicans v Utah Jazz

I fail to understand why most people are predicting a significant dip in production from the Lithuanian big man this NBA season. He was traded from the Memphis Grizzlies to the New Orleans Pelicans and the most common argument seems to be that he will be less of a focal point on offense.

The Grizzlies still rostered Ja Morant last season and Valanciunas averaged 17.1 points and 12.5 rebounds a night. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the focal points alongside him now in New Orleans, along with some young perimeter talent.

Zion Williamson's health concerns are being overlooked, though. He is coming off underdocumented foot surgery with no timetable to return, but an update and re-evaluation is scheduled for two weeks into the NBA season. Those type of numbers are repeatable for Jonas, and for some reason I have seen him sliding into the sixth round or later in some fantasy NBA drafts.

If Jonas Valanciunas is available in the sixth or seventh round of your draft, I would recommend scooping him up in a heartbeat.

#1 Kevin Porter Jr.

Indiana Pacers face off against the Houston Rockets

I understand the hesitation with Kevin Porter Jr. Some character concerns and complications have led to unexpected benching or needed confidence boosts in the G-League.

The Houston Rockets are in full rebuild at this point, and he may be the one initiating the offense for them on nearly every possession. Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will be the two-headed monster in Houston along with big man Christian Wood.

Porter's averages of 16.6 points, 6.3 assists and 3.8 rebounds throughout 26 games with the Rockets last year is encouraging, and there is reason to buy into the 21-year-old taking another step up in his production.

I was shocked to see Kevin Porter Jr. available in some fantasy NBA drafts as late as the final round.

Edited by Arnav Kholkar