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Kawhi Leonard went off in the final few minutes against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 of the first round of the 2021 NBA playoffs and kept the LA Clippers' season alive. There will now be a Game 7 at the Staples Center, where the Clippers haven't won a single game this postseason. It is the first series in NBA history where the road team won the first six games.
With the LA Clippers getting off to a very slow start, it seemed as if the Dallas Mavericks would close the series out. But the tables turned in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot poorly from the three-point line but got to the rim with authority. LA Clippers' coach Tyronn Lue spoke to the press after the game, saying:
"We're due for a great shooting game."
Another factor that is making the news is the time of the Game 7 tip-off. The LA Clippers aren't good in afternoon games, and several analysts have pointed that out.
The LA Clippers are 3-4 in afternoon games at home. The last time they faced the Dallas Mavericks in an afternoon Sunday game was in December 2020, when they were blown out by 50 points at half-time.
Game 7s tend to be some of the most exciting games in the league. The pressure is amped up, and no matter which team starts strong, both teams enter the game with their seasons on the line.
On that note, let's take a look at five factors that could determine the outcome of Game 7 between the LA Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks:
#1 LA Clippers' defense on Luka Doncic
It is no secret that the entire Dallas Mavericks' offense is centered around Luka Doncic. He is the primary ball-handler and assists or scores the majority of the team's field goals.
Although he is just 22, Doncic's ability to read the defense and find openings is top-notch. It has reached a point where whenever he goes to the bench for rest, the Dallas Mavericks fans panic. The 'Luka-less' minutes see a massive drop in production and the offensive rating drop by a drastic 7.8 points.
In Game 5, Luka Doncic scored or assisted 83.7% of his team's field goals, the highest-ever in NBA playoff history.
Hence, it is only natural to assume that Tyronn Lue will focus his entire defensive attention on stopping Luka Doncic. The LA Clippers have to decide whether they want Doncic to beat them and shut everyone else down, or they shut Doncic down and make the others beat them.
The Portland Trail Blazers employed a similar defensive strategy on the Denver Nuggets to get the win. They guarded everyone on the floor but Nikola Jokic, who ended up with 30+ points but was restricted to only one assist.
Luka Doncic's ability to find the open man is incredible. If the LA Clippers double Doncic, he will, more often than not, find the right teammate. If the LA Clippers guard everyone else and not allow Doncic to make assists, they might find it easier to beat the Dallas Mavericks. No matter what strategy coach Lue decides on, the LA Clippers' defense on Luka Doncic could arguably be one of the biggest factors to determine the outcome of Game 7.
#2 Kawhi Leonard's ability to penetrate Dallas Mavericks' zone defense
Kawhi Leonard was severely limited in Game 5 and also started Game 6 slow, particularly because of the Dallas Mavericks' zone defense. Rick Carlisle's men stuck to their tactics and didn't let the LA Clippers get in any sort of rhythm. They limited Leonard to just three points in the first quarter while Doncic and co. started to get going.
However, the Dallas Mavericks made the mistake of continuing their zone defense even after it was evident that it was no longer working. The Miami Heat had made a similar error in their first-round series, where they stuck to zone defense despite the Bucks having figured their way around that.
The Dallas Mavericks must find a way to employ or drop that tactic as and when the situation demands. Kawhi Leonard eventually broke out of the Mavericks' defense in Game 6 and dropped 45 points. If Leonard can figure his way out of the defense that coach Carlisle throws at him in Game 7, the LA Clippers could have a significant advantage.
#3 Paul George's ability to perform under pressure
LA Clippers' Paul George has often struggled in big playoff games. His inability to perform under the bright lights has often cost his team. He collapsed in the 2020 NBA playoffs, earning the nickname 'Pandemic P' due to his subpar numbers in the postseason. He shot just 39% from the field in the 2020 NBA playoffs and had three abysmal outings, scoring 9, 11 and 10 points, respectively.
George might not struggle in every game, but when the pressure is amped up, like in an elimination or closeout game, more often than not, he doesn't show up. In Game 7 of the 2020 Denver series, he shot 4-16 from the field and 1-11 from the three-point range, eventually ending up with just ten points, including none in the fourth quarter.
In Game 6 of the first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks, when the LA Clippers' season was on the line, Paul George scored just nine points on 37% shooting in the second half of a close game. Every time it seems he has shaken the name 'Pandemic P' away, he ends up air-balling a shot or missing a free-throw in the final quarter.
In Game 7, the lights will be brighter than in any other game so far, so George will have to deliver if the LA Clippers wish to progress to the semi-finals.
#4 Both teams' supporting casts
The supporting cast around both teams' stars has been inconsistent this series. For the Dallas Mavericks, Tim Hardway Jr. has been lights out, averaging 18 points per game on a ridiculous 45% from beyond the arc. He dropped 28 points in Game 2, shooting 64% from the field, including 75% from downtown.
Hardway Jr. has been the go-to guy for Luka Doncic when the team needed a bucket. Boban Marjanovic has been incredible in the paint as well, but he doesn't see too many minutes. Moreover, Kristaps Porzingis and Dorian Finney-Smith have been very unreliable. Also, the Mavericks' bench, which includes Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, Josh Richardson and others, have been on and off as well.
For the LA Clippers, Luke Kennard is not even seeing significant minutes, while Rajon Rondo and Marcus Morris Sr. are not showing any decent production. Reggie Jackson has stepped up of late, while the coach has benched Patrick Beverly. Terrance Mann, Nicolas Batum and Ivica Zubac have been unreliable as well.
The supporting cast of either team needs to step up to the challenge and play their best to give their team a chance to win the game and, with it, the series.
#5 Turnovers and foul trouble
The Dallas Mavericks are one the best teams in terms of taking care of the ball. They are averaging one of the least turnovers (under ten) per game in the 2021 NBA playoffs.
In games 3, 4 and 5, the Dallas Mavericks had just eight turnovers in regulation in each game. However, a lot of their turnovers often come in the final quarter, which could be detrimental to their chances. If they manage to take care of the ball for three quarters, they cannot let the pressure get to them in the final one.
On the other hand, the LA Clippers have turned the ball over a lot. They are averaging 10.5 turnovers a game but had three games with more than 12 turnovers. Just like the Dallas Mavericks, they also need to take care of the ball better.
Finally, foul trouble is something that can catch any player in a high-leverage game. The pressure is amped up, and everyone is overly excited and on their feet, which leads to careless fouls at the beginning of the game.
That forces coaches to bench their stars and allow the opposition to get in rhythm. Often the opponents target and draw fouls on purpose to get key opposition players out of the game. So the stars in both teams will need to maintain their composure and ensure that that doesn't happen.
Also Read: Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers - Prediction and Match Preview - June 6th, 2021 | Game 7, 2021 NBA playoffs.
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