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The NCAA Tournament draws to a conclusion this weekend. The national semifinals will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Saturday.
The No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs (31-6) take on the No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic Owls (35-3) in the second semifinal. The game tips at 8:49 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS. It will also stream on March Madness Live.
It is the first time either team has made the Final Four. This is also the first NCAA Tournament appearance for FAU. San Diego State had never advanced past the Sweet 16 previously.
Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher is in his sixth season at SDSU. He has led the team to four NCAA Tournaments and was 30-2 during the 2020 season that ended short due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He has won three regular-season Mountain West championships and three tournament titles. He has never been a head coach at another school. He played college basketball at Minnesota.
FAU coach Dusty May skipped playing basketball at a smaller school to attend Indiana, where he was a team manager under the legendary Bob Knight for the men’s basketball team. May is in his fifth year at FAU.
Game preview
Both teams ended the season ranked and were two of the winningest teams in the country this season. FAU is on a 11-game win streak. SDSU has won eight games in a row.
FAU has been an underdog in almost every tournament game this season but continues to survive and advance. The Owls have come up clutch all season, going 5-0 in one-possession games.
The Owls love to shoot and play NBA-style with a lot of 3-point shots and drives to the basket. FAU’s guard Johnell Davis leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game. He is also shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc.
It could be a tough matchup for FAU as San Diego State plays at a much slower tempo. The Aztecs emphasize their defense more than their offense. Their opponents have averaged 58.3 ppg in the past 10 games. They are fourth in KenPom’s adjusted defense.
San Diego is the second-best in the country in 3-point defense. Teams are shooting 19% from the 3-point line in postseason play, which includes the NCAA and conference tournaments.
Game odds
Spread: San Diego St. (-3)
Total (O/U): 131.5
Moneyline: SDSU (-155) vs. FAU (+130)
Game prediction
San Diego State has the defense to run the Owls off the 3-point line and make them change their style. The Aztecs will slow the game down and force FAU to play their way. The defense will frustrate the Owls, and the Cinderella run will end.
San Diego State 61, FAU 55
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