Stephen Curry to hit 4,000 career 3-pointers? Here's why you shouldn't bet against it

The 2021-22 NBA season will be Wardell Stephen Curry's 13th year in the league. It has been an absolute privilege to watch this singular talent play in the league and dazzle fans all over the world with his incredible shooting from the outside over the last 12 seasons. As Curry enters the new season, he remains only 142 threes shy of overtaking Ray Allen as the NBA’s leading all-time three-point scorer.

Stephen Curry has 2,832 three-pointers against his name. The question of whether he will overtake Allen (2,973 triples), therefore, remains a mere formality. This also holds true for Curry being able to break the 3,000 threes mark, a record that no NBA player has achieved before Curry.

The more interesting question, therefore, to ask is whether Stephen Curry will become the first NBA player to cross 4,000 threes over the course of his career?

Context is important

There are only 10 NBA players to record more than 2,000 threes. Hall-of-Famer Reggie Miller was the first NBA player to record more than 2,000 triples. Miller then went on to record the most three-point shots made by an NBA player. Miller recorded 2,560 threes by the time his career came to a close at the end of the 2004-05 season. Miller’s record stood for a little over five whole NBA seasons.

Ray Allen then came along and broke Miller’s record in 2010-11. Allen splashed 2973 triples over his career and is now the holder of the NBA’s all-time three-point scoring record. Allen has held the record since he made his 2,561st three-pointer on February 10, 2011.

But coming back to Stephen Curry, it took Reggie Miller 14 NBA seasons and 1,077 games to reach the 2,000 threes mark. Curry accomplished the same feat in just his ninth NBA season, in 2017-18. Curry needed just 597 games to achieve this feat. Ray Allen, by comparison, needed 824 games to hit the 2,000 threes threshold.

Previously, Curry was also the fastest to reach the 1,000 threes (369 career games) and 1,500 triples (477 career games) mark. The 1,000 threes record has since been bettered by Buddy Hield, who's done so in 350 games.

The math of it all

Stephen Curry has made 2,832 threes over 12 NBA seasons at an average of 236 triples per season. Critics would argue that this average is inflated simply because it includes the 402 threes from Curry’s unanimous MVP season in 2015-16. The closest he's gotten to that mark thereafter was in 2018-19 when Curry hit 354 shots from long range, 48 fewer than the historic 402 mark.

However, this argument against Stephen Curry does not take into account the two seasons he made only 55 (2011-12) and 12 (2019-20) long-range shots because he was mostly injured. Subtracting these two seasons means that he averages a much-improved 277 triples per season, as against his average of 236 triples.

Assuming we subtract all three seasons with large variations: the one season where Stephen Curry nailed 402 triples and the two seasons where he was out due to injury, Curry would still average 263 threes over his other nine NBA seasons. This would be 27 triples more than his career average of 236 shots from long range.

The verdict on Stephen Curry

Reggie Miller played 18 long seasons in the NBA. He was a few months shy of 40 by the time the 2004-05 regular season came to a close. Ray Allen, too, played 18 NBA seasons. He was almost 39 when he hung up his playing sneakers.

Ray Allen (second from left) during the 2014 NBA Finals

Looking at point guards specifically, John Stockton played 19 years in the league. He was 40 at the time of his retirement. Having played 18 seasons, Steve Nash was 39 at the time of his retirement.

Of the 10 names on the list of players who have made more than 2,000 career triples, the least number of years anyone has played among the retired players (seven) is 17 seasons (Kyle Korver). Vince Carter, who ranks sixth all-time on the three-point shots made list, played the most number of seasons (22).

Stephen Curry is 33 at the moment. Assuming he plays for only five more years (which would give him the same number of NBA years as Korver, a player who came off the bench for a substantial part of his career), he would still be younger than Miller, Allen, Stockton and Nash at the time of his retirement (38). Interestingly, Curry signed an extension with Golden State only last month, which would keep him with the Warriors until 2025-26 (for precisely five more years).

Steph Curry will extend his contract off his $45.8 million salary for 2021-22, which means he’s now guaranteed $261 million over the next five seasons. pic.twitter.com/hYiBpI6Eo4

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) August 3, 2021

Assuming he makes his triples over the next five NBA seasons at an average of 263 per season (the number which he averages minus the extreme variation seasons), Stephen Curry should be able to knock down an additional 1,315 long-range shots. Adding that to his existing 2,832 triples would comfortably take him past the 4,000 threes mark.

The more exciting question is whether Stephen Curry would be able to break the 4,000 barrier if he were to make his three-point shots over the next five years at his career average of 236 triples per season? Given that he is currently at 2,832 made threes, Stephen Curry is shy of the 4,000-mark by 1,168 triples. Splashing it from deep at a rate of 236 for the next five seasons would give him, hold your breath… 1,180 threes, 12 more than the 4k mark.

Stephen Curry fans can, consequently, breathe easy. Even if Curry plays only five more seasons, the fewest any of the retired players have played on the all-time top 10 list, he would still go somewhere no NBA player has gone before him.

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