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After a regular season that can be summarized in one word - patchy - the Oklahoma City Thunder ended up as the fourth seed in the Western Conference and will now face Utah Jazz after they were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers in their final game and lost homecourt advantage.
After acquiring Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the offseason, the sky was the limit for the Thunder, with the OK3. But they started off the regular season rather poorly, falling to a losing record of 8-12 at one stage of the competition. OKC finally picked up momentum from there and several winning and losing streaks later, ended the season at a much respectable 48-34 record.
The Jazz, on the other hand, have an even better comeback story. Reeling at 19-28 and occupying one of the dreaded lottery spots, the Salt Lake City outfit won a clutch game against Detroit Pistons on 24th January and what followed hence was completely unheralded.
Quin Snyder's team won a total of 29 of their last 35 games and were favorites to land the third seed until Damian Lillard and Co. decided to spoil the party. They too ended with a 48-34 record. Notwithstanding the fact that the Jazz lost their best player in Gordon Hayward at the beginning of the season, they have certainly defied all odds.
Without further ado, let us have a look at what we can expect from the two teams in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
#1 Strengths
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC's biggest strength this season has been their hustle. Be it on the boards, on defense plays, on offense, or in transition, the ballers from Oklahoma City have always played hard.
This has been the case thanks to the impeccable athleticism of reigning MVP Russell Westbrook, the two-way play of Paul George, and a late addition in the form of an always-sprinting Corey Brewer.
The Thunder are a force to be reckoned with in the rebounding department, being the 5th best in the league on the boards. Things get better on the offensive side of things as OKC have grabbed a league-best 12.5 offensive rebounds and correspondingly lead the NBA in second-chance points per game with 14.9 of them.
On the defensive end of the court, the Thunder leads the league in deflections per game. You've got to be extremely careful with the ball or chances of PG13 and Westbrook picking your pocket are extremely high with both the players ranking in the top five of the league in steals. If you're caught in transition, Brodie is simply a wrecking force topping the NBA's fastbreak points chart.
The fact that OKC are one of the top 10 teams in both offensive and defensive rating signifies their all-round capabilities.
Utah Jazz
If there's one thing that Utah really excel at, it's playing hardcore defense. Make no mistake, this team can really break the flow of your sets with lockdown plays. Not only are the Utah Jazz the best team in the league in terms of opposition points allowed at 99.8, they also rank second in the league on the defensive rating chart.
If the Thunder excel at rebounding, the Jazz have just the perfect set of players to counter that as they yet again lead the league in lowest opposition rebounds allowed per game at 41.6. You want to move the ball around to find the empty man for an uncontested shot? not happening. Utah Jazz allows only a league-best 20 assists per game to their opposition.
Utah owe their defensive prowess mainly to frontcourt player Rudy Gobert, who has an outstanding defensive rating of 97.7.
As a scorer, you'd really have to think twice before trying to get into the paint as Utah are the second best team in the NBA in terms of points allowed in the paint and chances of your shot getting blocked by the burly Gobert are really high.
On the offensive side of things, Salt Lake City's basketball team has a scoring duo in Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles. The former is leading the 2017 draft class and the Jazz in scoring with 20.5 points per game while the latter was the fourth best 3-point shooter of the regular season, converting 44% of his 5.7 3-point attempts.
#2 Weakness
Oklahoma City Thunder
While Oklahoma City Thunder may boast of several qualities on the court, their bench remains their Achilles heel. Scoring only 26.4 points per game, OKC's bench is the second-worst in the league in terms of bench points. Not a single Thunder bench player is averaging double digits in terms of points.
It is a rather normal occurrence for Oklahoma to see their lead getting reduced/surrendered once the bench takes over. To counter this situation Billy Donovan has made sure that one of their big three plays with the bench but this strategy will eventually tire out their big name players because of the additional minutes raked up.
The charity line is not OKC's favorite spot on the court either, as they are second-worst in the league in this department as well converting only 71.5% of their free throws. Russell Westbrook averaging a career-low free throw percentage of 73.7% doesn't help the cause either as he is one of the most fouled players on the roster.
Free throws can decide the result in close games and OKC have been on the losing side of many thanks to their poor results in this department. Their choking loss to the Boston Celtics in late March is the first one that comes to mind
Utah Jazz
The biggest weakness of the Utah Jazz has to be the lack of featured scorers. Apart from Donovan Mitchell who is accounting for 20.5 points per game, Quin Snyder's side has no other player to turn to for scoring points on a regular basis.
In fact, no other player apart from Mitchell is averaging over 15 points a game for the Jazz. The one other player who did so, Rodney Hood, is now a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Utah have genuine problems on the offensive end of the court. While they have a decent field goal percentage of 43.2, the Jazz are still 19th in the league in terms of points scored per game.
They are also one of the slower teams in the league, slotting in at the 25th position in pace rankings. This pretty much explains their inability to move the ball well enough as they rank only 21st in the league in terms of assists. This, coupled with the fact that the Jazz turn the ball over a relatively high 14.7 times per games implies unhealthy scoring runs.
#3 Opportunities and threats
Oklahoma City Thunder
We've already discussed how Utah lack players who can score big points on any given night. Thus, the biggest opportunity for OKC will be the ability to focus their attention on a few players, especially Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles.
Given the quality of defense that Oklahoma City boasts of, playing lockdown defense against the two aforementioned names is absolutely possible and this would hurt Utah's offensive prowess to a great extent.
On the other hand, if OKC continue their brand of hustle, they might cause the Jazz into committing costly turnovers - something that they do more often than not - and score some crucial second-chance points.
OKC's bench is averaging 26.4 points per game whereas Utah's bench is managing 34.9 of the same. This means a points differential of 8.5 points between the second units of both these franchises. Hence, Oklahoma City's biggest threat would be falling behind when the bench comes in to play.
Playoffs games are bound to be closely contested ties and that puts OKC at risk. They have a poor efficiency of 40.6% in clutch situations - 22nd in the league - and this means that they might fail to close down games, something that has been a recurring problem for the franchise throughout the regular season.
Utah Jazz
Utah have brilliant rim protectors and paint defenders in the form of Jae Crowder and Rudy Gobert. This means that the Salt Lake City outfit will have the opportunity of forcing OKC to settle for jump shots which will definitely hurt the cause of the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder have an efficiency of 38.3% and 35.4% for mid-range shots and 3-pointers respectively. This makes them the 7th-worst team in the league in both categories. Defense is Utah's primary weapon and it will make things easier for them if they are able to halt the flow of points for the Thunder.
While Utah have good defenders, they are not foolproof. With a stout Steven Adams slotting in the paint and a blazing fast Russell Westbrook participating in pick-and-rolls with him, OKC might just unlock Utah's paint area.
I'm going to say this out loud yet again. Utah don't have enough scorers. Offensive breakdowns are very likely to happen. OKC's fastbreak prowess coupled with a turnover-prone Utah Jazz spells disaster for Donovan Mitchell and Co.
In such a scenario, the Thunder might go on scoring runs with the Jazz failing to answer them back. And if the Thunder manage to find a permanent solution to restrict the dexterity of the Rookie of the Year contender from Utah, may the Lord help them!
#4 X-factor
Oklahoma City Thunder - Steven Adams
Ask any Oklahoma City Thunder fan who their third-best player on the roster is and most of them would pick Steven Adams over Carmelo Anthony in a heartbeat. The big man from New Zealand has been winning hearts all over with his contributions for OKC.
Be it his supporting role on offensive plays, his beastly presence in the paint, his hustle on the glass or his insightful screening, Adams is always in action when on the floor. His matchup with Rudy Gobert would be critical to Thunder's prowess in the paint.
The Kiwi wrecking force would be expected to create space for his OKC teammates to operate from. His offensive rebounding - where he is the joint leader in the league averaging 5.1 offensive boards - would come in handy. Adams could be a useful scoring weapon from close range as well, given his 62.9% field goal accuracy.
Utah Jazz - Joe Ingles
While he is still averaging only 11.5 points per game, Joe Ingles has a good scoring accuracy of 46.7%. He drained 44% of his 5.7 3-point attempts in the regular season and led the league in precision from beyond the arc until early March.
Ingles can be the second big scoring option for the Jazz. He is averaging his career-high points per game and field goal percentage and it is only justified that he takes things up a notch from here. He needs to take more attempts and if he keeps up his field goal percentage, he might just end up averaging close to 20 points in the playoffs.
However, don't take Ingles to be only an option on offense. He is one of the rather underrated defenders on the Jazz roster with decent mid-range and paint defense skills as signified by his defensive rating of 102.3.
#5 Prediction
Utah Jazz might as well be the giant killers in the NBA right now, having defeated many big teams in the recent weeks. However, Quin Snyder's side might just fail to do this in a seven-game series.
For OKC, they have backup options on both ends of the field to come to the fore in case one fails to turn up. Thus, the 2012 NBA Finalists are well rounded in all departments.
Utah, on their end, are too reliant on Donovan Mitchell to score their points and on Rudy Gobert for their stops. In today's age, where hundreds of hours of video footage of players' performances are available, it would take a maximum of two games to decipher a player if plans are executed correctly.
Let us not forget the fact that good offense is always more effective than good defense. While OKC are considerably ahead in the former department, they aren't much behind in the latter.
Utah Jazz have done enough for the rest of the league to "Take Note" of them but it's time for OKC to "Thunder Up". Hence, I predict a win for the Oklahoma City Thunder inside six games.
Guess the Lakers players!
