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The 2023-24 NBA season will start in two weeks, and fans cannot contain their excitement for the return of the best basketball league in the world.
The new season also means that fantasy basketball leagues have started drafting. There would be some who want to wait until the end of the preseason to get an updated rankings of players.
So, what does a breakout player mean? It's a type of fantasy player, who's usually early in his NBA career and has not had a great season, fantasy-wise. Breakout players are those who have not been in the Top 75 or Top 50 rankings to end the season.
Breakout players are also different from sleepers, who are established players likely to exceed their season expectations. Breakout candidates are those who're likely to exceed their average draft position or ADP at the end of the season.
Small forwards who are breakout candidates in 2023-24 NBA Fantasy Basketball
Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic was supposed to be the top breakout candidate from last year.
He continued to be a solid fantasy player last season and just finished outside the Top 75. However, he has already established himself as a great fantasy option and won't be on this list.
On that note, let's take a look at five small forwards who are primed to have a breakout campaign for the 2023-24 NBA season.
#1 Paolo Banchero
Banchero was arguably the best rookie in the NBA last season. He rightfully won the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year, averaging 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. However, he was not a top fantasy basketball option due to his poor shooting and lack of defensive stats.
Fantasy basketball managers should expect something different from Banchero this season. He will likely improve his efficiency and defense, especially considering what he showed at the 2023 FIBA World Cup for Team USA. He will be a good pick around the seventh round.
#2 Cameron Johnson
Johnson averaged 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.4 steals per game in 25 games for the Brooklyn Nets last season. He started the season on the injured list and the Phoenix Suns but was traded to Brooklyn as part of the Kevin Durant deal.
The Nets signing him to a four-year, $108 million extension, which means he will play a key role for them this season. Johnson is a valuable player from the middle rounds due to his efficiency at small forward, point, 3-point shots and defensive stats.
#3 Ausar Thompson
The No. 5 pick in the 2023 NBA draft could start the season behind Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey in either guard position. However, Thompson is capable of playing small forward and might start a few games there alongside Cade and Ivey.
It would not be surprising if the Detroit Pistons prioritized the improvement of Thompson ahead of vets like Alec Burks, Joe Harris and Killian Hayes. He could provide a lot of counting stats as a late-round pick, but his field goal and free throw shooting might give fantasy managers headaches.
#4 Deni Avdija
Avdija has the chance to have the best season of his NBA career this campaign. The Washington Wizards traded Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal in the offseason, which means he will have the chance to shine alongside Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma.
Avdija should be a late-round target for fantasy managers due to his potential and versatility. He can provide out-of-position points, rebounds and assists, which is difficult to get in the later rounds.
#5 Amen Thompson
The twin brother of the Detroit Pistons' Ausar Thompson, Amen was drafted No. 4 by the Houston Rockets.
Amen has better defensive potential than Ausar, who is described as the better scorer of the two. He could be a good source of points, rebounds, assists and steals as a late-round flier.
Amen will have a lot of competition with the Rockets as a starter and as a player off the bench. However, his upside is too great to pass up. He shot poorly in his first preseason game but had nine rebounds, three assists and one steal in 21 minutes.
