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The Netherlands still have a narrow chance of making it to the 2023 ODI World Cup semi-finals and they will have to topple defending champions England to keep the dream alive.
The Scott Edwards-led side have certainly exceeded expectations by securing two wins so far, against South Africa and Bangladesh, and could make their statement even better with more wins.
The Netherlands are scheduled to take on England in their penultimate 2023 ODI World Cup league stage fixture at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Pune on Wednesday.
While the World Cup semi-final is an intact dream for the Dutch, it is of a far-fetched nature. The Netherlands can only finish with a maximum tally of eight points, that is they defeat both England and the unbeaten India. Even after that, the net run rate will come into the picture, and the likes of Pakistan and New Zealand have far better odds of claiming the final spot.
Both sides are looking at the upcoming contest as an opportunity to finish in the top eight, which gives them a spot at the 2025 Champions Trophy tournament in Pakistan. The Netherlands and England are currently placed outside of the top eight, with two points separating them.
On that note, let us take a look at three things the Netherlands can do to defeat England in the 2023 World Cup.
#1 Top order has to shoulder responsibility on a batting-friendly wicket
One of the Netherlands' biggest drawbacks, if not the biggest, in their 2023 ODI World Cup campaign has been the performance of their top order. The opening combination of Max O'Dowd and Vikramjeet Singh did not work out, leading to the team dropping the latter and promoting veteran Wesley Baressi up the order.
Max O'Dowd scored a solid fifty in the loss against Afghanistan and will be hoping to play in the same manner against England as well. The Netherlands top order are expected to have a solid test up against them with David Willey and Chris Woakes improving considerably as the tournament has progressed, and the duo are highly likely to make the new ball talk.
The Netherlands cannot afford to expose the middle order earlier than necessary and the responsibility of the same will be down to the top order. To make their task easier, the Pune wicket has been largely batting-friendly and the batters just need to weather the storm at the start and make the most of the start.
The Dutch would ideally prefer one of the top three to compile a large score and hold up one end so that the batters down the order can play freely as the match progresses.
#2 Seize control of the middle overs with pace and spin
The Netherlands have been exceptional with the ball over the course of the campaign, asking some serious questions to some of the best batting units in the world. The task of early breakthroughs will be down to Aryan Dutt and Logan van Beek, but it is the middle order where things get interesting.
England's middle order, despite being one of the strongest on paper, has been a total train wreck. Joe Root and Jos Buttler are unable to score a run to save their lives in the recent set of matches, while the rest of the unit looks equally lost as well.
This is where the trio of Paul van Meekeren, Bas de Leede, and Roelof van der Merwe can chip in. England have not unlocked how to navigate through the middle overs in the subcontinent, and are low on confidence and form as well.
Van Meekeren can use his tall frame, much like South Africa's Marco Jansen did at the same venue in the same fixture. Although not entirely comparable, the Dutch pacer can extract some bounce off the surface to unsettle the English batters.
Bas de Leede has not had the blockbuster tournament that several expected of him. The all-rounder began the tournament with a fifty and a four-fer against Pakistan but has fallen a long way since then, including a record-breaking most expensive ODI spell against Australia.
However, the talent is there and if there is a fixture ideal for a comeback, it is this one.
#3 Trust pressure to work its magic
England look like a side in utter disarray, with a lot of outside chatter dominating the proceedings. The defending champions have hit an all-time low as they head into the closing stages with the prospect of a total white-ball reset, Joe Root exiting the ODI setup and the futures of Jos Buttler and coach Matthew Mott hanging in the balance.
England are also in the midst of a five-match losing streak while David Willey has announced his retirement midway through the campaign. The all-rounder was far from pleased after he was not named in the list of players for the central contract.
Amid the chaos, all the Netherlands have to do is pile on more pressure and watch England crumble. Buttler and company are not even close to being mentally or tactically ready.
The match being played in Pune presents itself as yet another venue that England have to adapt to, and it is something that they have been horrible at over the course of the campaign.
What immense pressure does is - conjure up an illusion where a below-par total looks like a par score, and a par score - a match-winning total. Even while batting first, losing a single wicket can lead to the thoughts of a collapse, with England already having endured a load of it so far.
Will the Netherlands gift the cricketing world yet another upset in the 2023 ODI World Cup? Let us know what you think.
