French Open men's final preview - Rafael Nadal vs David Ferrer

(3) Rafael Nadal vs (4) David Ferrer – H2H Nadal leads 19-4 (16-1 on clay)

You would have to be a brave man to bet against Rafael Nadal winning an eighth French Open title in Paris on Sunday. And that has as much to do with Nadal’s overwhelming track record at Roland Garros as it has to do with his opponent’s underwhelming track record at the major tournaments.

For all the consistency that Ferrer has displayed over the years on the tour (he’s been ranked between 4 and 6 for every week in the past two years and in the top 10 since October 2010), he will be playing his first Grand Slam final and has only one Masters Series title to his name. And while that may have a lot to do with the dominance of the Big Four in the game, it also has a lot to do with Ferrer’s belief whether he truly belongs among the elite of the game. Ferrer’s goal at the beginning of the year was to remain in the top 10! Even the mental midgets from France have more self-belief and higher goals than that.

Three of Ferrer’s wins against Nadal have come on hard courts and his only win over Nadal on clay came in their first meeting in 2004. Since then, Nadal has beaten Ferrer 16 times in a row on clay, 12 of those in straight sets. The pair has already met thrice this year – all on clay. In Acapulco, Nadal dropped just two games against Ferrer and called it one of his best performances. But in their two most recent meetings – Madrid and Rome – Ferrer has pushed Nadal to three sets each.

Ferrer may never win a Grand Slam but he certainly enjoys immense respect from his peers, Nadal included. “Tennis is a fair sport, and if somebody deserves to win titles, to be in the finals of a grand slam, it’s David,” said Nadal. “It’s like Andy at the US Open. He deserved to be the winner of a Grand Slam because he was in that position to be the winner a lot of times. The person who is not respecting David as one of the greatest players of the world – and not for one year, for a long time – it’s because that person doesn’t know anything about tennis.”

As usual, both players are saying the politically right things in their pre-match press conferences.

“I don’t feel favourite,” said Nadal. “I feel that I am a finalist. I arrived in the final playing well. I improved a little bit in every match during the tournament. So that’s important, to arrive to the final with the right feelings. But he didn’t lose a set during the whole tournament, so he’s a player that brings you to the limit. He’s a player that if you are not playing perfect, you will be in big, big trouble. I’m going to try tomorrow [Sunday]. Tomorrow [Sunday] will be a great day for the sport in Spain. It’s very difficult to make that happen, two Spanish players in the finals of a Grand Slam.”

Ferrer knows beating Nadal on clay is going to be a mammoth challenge when he says, “I’m very, very happy. This tournament is very special for me and to be in the first final of a grand slam at Roland Garros is amazing. It’s a very important match and I want to do well. I want to play a great match at the standards of a final of a Grand Slam. So I don’t want to celebrate right now saying, ‘Okay, I made it to the final.’ No, I want to be well prepared and I want to get to the final with a lot of dynamism and I’m really willing to win. It’s very difficult to beat Rafael on all the surfaces, but on a clay court it’s more difficult. I think I need to play my best tennis to beat him. I need to play very aggressive all the match.”

There’s a good chance of rain on Sunday in Paris and that would once again favour Nadal, who has been in these situations before. For Ferrer, everything about Sunday will be new. At the age of 31, this is likely to be his only shot at winning a Slam. But he would need his opponent to be physically tired to have a realistic chance to win the title. Ferrer has not dropped a set to reach the final whereas Nadal has needed four sets in two of his early rounds and five sets to take down Djokovic in the semis. If Nadal is fit, he’s going to be too mentally strong and hungry to let this one go.

Prediction – Nadal in straight sets