NBA Finals: Thunder-Heat Game 4 Preview

Why It Matters:

The Heat have been here before, leading 2-1 in the NBA Finals. And then everything unraveled. Leading by 8 points entering the 4^th quarter of Game 4, a 3-1 chokehold of the series within sight, LeBron James and the Heat simply failed. A Thunder win will bring back memories of the Dallas series meltdown, which might not be the best thing for LeBron’s mercurial nerves. Above all, the Heat need to win because no team in NBA history has come back from a 3-1 series deficit to win the Finals. And the Thunder need to win for exactly the same reason. If the Thunder win this, they regain homecourt and have an opportunity to steal game 5 and essentially finish the Heat. The Thunder are simply electric on their homecourt and the Heat ideally want to take care of things in Miami.

What The Thunder Need:

The Thunder are not a great half-court offensive team. They play their best on the open court and in transition, and that’s the best way for them to win. The key number for the Thunder in Game 3 was 11. That’s the number of assists they recorded. The Thunder is not a team that puts up huge assist totals (dead last of all teams – 30^th – in the regular season). In the four wins against San Antonio, they had 18, 17, 20 and 22 assists respectively. Sometimes it’s that simple. They need to play in transition as much as possible, and move the ball in the half court offensive sets. The Mavericks have already shown how to beat the Heat defense – good passing. Since the Heat play a scrambling, rotation-heavy, sort of helter-skelter defense, the extra pass will always lead to an open shot.

The Thunder need to run more plays for James Harden, especially in the pick-and-roll with Collison/Ibaka. Harden is one of the best pick-and-roll players in the NBA and it’s strange that Scotty Brooks is yet to run more of his offense through Harden. Both Collison and Ibaka can hit the hit the midrange jumper and Harden, as we saw in San Antonio, loves that three-pointer coming off the screen.

And oh, KD needs to be, you know, Kevin “Kobe-who?” Durant. For once, LeBron wasn’t the star that wilted in the pressure of the moment.

What the Heat Need:

The Heat need to put up a giant sized bust of Shane Battier outside American Airlines Arena. No, seriously. The guy has been unconscious from behind the arc. He’s now hit on eleven of fifteen three pointers in the NBA Finals at clip of 73%. SEVENTY THREE PER CENT! Finally, a Miami Heat role player who actually wants to earn his money. Shane Battier is a simply tantalizing example of what the Heat bench could have looked like if the front office hadn’t messed up (the Heat owe Joel Anthony and Mike Miller a combined $ 10 million for next season. Not kidding.)

Spoelstra has to be ready for lineup adjustments from Brooks. This is where Spoelstra can sometimes be caught napping (J.J. Barea says hello, Spo). The Thunder are going to realize sometime that the more they play Ibaka-Durant-Sefolosha-Harden-Westbrook, the more they’re going to outscore the Heat. They will realize. Sometime.

And Wade has got to stop making careless turnovers late in the fourth quarter. He’s been doing it all season and through the playoffs. It’s going to come back to bite the Heat, though they lucked out in Game 3. Fewer Wade isolation plays and more Bosh isos would help the Heat from self-destructing in the few minutes LBJ isn’t on court.

That brings me to – LeBron James. He’s going to choke, he’s so going to choke, wait for the fourth quarter…wait, what?

X-Factors:

Thunder: Everything for the Thunder begins and ends with RW. He’s the Rondo of this team. Every time he comes close to a triple-double on 50% shooting or better, the Thunder will blowout any team in the NBA. When he’s locked in, RW is a top-5 player in the NBA. He gets it done on both ends of the floor. And then there’s the bad RW…the guy who takes a gazillion shots while KD watches silently from the corner. RW is the most important player on this team, and it’s not even close. You know what you’re going to get from KD every game – pure offense, all the time. RW is the guy who pushes this team over the top – from being merely good to amazing. I’m hoping both he and Wade go off in the same game, setting up an epic tag team encounter not seen since the Dudleys- -Hardys era.

Heat: LeBron James. 30p/10r/4r/2s in the Finals. Enough said.

Pick: The Thunder. They’re the more desperate team. And I wouldn’t bet against that Durant guy in such a game.