West Indies tri-series 2013: Five reasons why India will win the final

After a miserable start to the tournament, the Indian team came together to put in two competent performances and now find themselves on top of the table and, more importantly, in the final.

They will be joined there by Sri Lanka, who make the cut in spite of their loss to India in the final group game. Their confidence would have taken a hit after their batting crumbled under testing conditions in the rain-interrupted match that saw India dismiss them for a meagre 96 runs. They have shared a game each now in this series and the final will decide who the better team was in the Caribbean.

India might receive a boost ahead of the final to be played on Thursday as MS Dhoni might be able to participate since he has recovered from the hamstring injury. He will provide the Indian middle-order the required solidity that it has been lacking in this series. The performance of the bowling attack augurs well for India’s hopes as, apart from a major lapse against Sri Lanka earlier in the tournament, they have been on the money.

Here is a list of five reasons why India are likely to defeat the Sri Lanka in the final to clinch yet another trophy:

5. Weakened opposition

Sri Lanka have some major issues to address before the final. Their top-order has been scoring runs, but the middle-order is virtually non-existent.

India’s Bhuvneshwar Kumar has mastered the art of getting early breakthroughs; and if he can do the same in the final, a lot of pressure will be created on the likes of Dinesh Chandimal, Angelo Matthews and Lahiru Thirimanne.

Sri Lanka’s bowling has delivered in this tournament, but the contributions have come from unlikely sources. Angelo Matthews and Rangana Herath have picked up the bulk of the wickets, and have strangled the opposition in the middle overs. However, it is difficult to see them shackling a power-packed Indian batting line-up.

4. The opening partnership

The opening pair of Shikhar Dhawan and Rohit Sharma has not performed at the same level as it did in the Champions Trophy; but between them, the two players have 278 runs in four matches.

Rohit Sharma is India’s highest run-getter in the series so far, and his innings of 48 not out against Sri Lanka in the last group game turned out to be vital as the D/L method came into effect. He averages over 50.00 in this series, but has been unable to get that big innings that lays a game to rest. He will have yet another opportunity in the final.

Shikhar Dhawan, on the other hand, will play his natural game marked by controlled aggression.

3. Spin twins

The effectiveness of India’s spin attack increases manifold when the pace battery is able to get some wickets in the first fifteen overs of the game. The last two games against West Indies and Sri Lanka were proof of that observation.

R. Jadeja and R. Ashwin have shared 8 wickets between them in this series at a combined economy rate of below 5.50 per over. That performance was markedly tarnished in the game against Sri Lanka when they were exposed to settled top-order batsman and failed to provide any breakthroughs.

If India can put a reasonable total on the board, the spinners will mount a lot of pressure in the middle overs, and that should be enough to make the Sri Lankan middle order crumble.

2. Bhuvneshwar Kumar

Bhuvneshwar Kumar has become critical to this Indian attack ever since he made his debut against Pakistan late last year . The bowling attack looked pedestrian without him in the game against Sri Lanka. He has the ability to extract swing from the new ball, and does so even in conditions that do not assist swing bowling.

His performance in the last group game was critical and bore testament to how lethal he can be if there is a bit of moisture in the surface. The swing bowler from Meerut has played just three matches in this tournament and has taken 8 wickets at an economy rate of below 3.50. He has been India’s player of the tournament so far.

1. The leaders

Virat Kohli has lead the Indian side admirably in the absence of MS Dhoni. The team was in shambles after the humiliating loss against Sri Lanka, but they have come back with a vengeance to win the next two matches.

India are at the top of the table, but that would hardly satiate their appetite. Kohli made the turnaround possible with his stunning knock of 102 against the West Indies in the do-or-die encounter. He will have yet another opportunity to make a match-winning contribution in the final.

He might have a little more independence to play his game on the day as MS Dhoni might make a return to the team after recovering from his hamstring injury. As much as we admire Kohli’s stand-in work as captain, there is no doubt that Dhoni’s astute leadership holds a marked edge. Dhoni’s return makes India the favourites to win the tri-nation series.