Sergio Perez vs Max Verstappen at Red Bull: Delusion or Reality?

Much has been written about the supposed rift between Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen as the Mexican won the second race of the season in Jeddah. There have been reports and comments made by multiple pundits that neither Max Verstappen nor his father were too happy after the race as Sergio Perez won convincingly.

To add further fuel to the fire, we had Sergio Perez delete a tweet in which he mentioned that he wanted to be a world champion. With all of these things happening, much has been said about how Red Bull could have a headache when it comes to handling its two drivers this season.

In this feature, what we'll try to do is answer one key question: Is Red Bull heading for a Max Verstappen vs Sergio Perez rivalry this season, or is all of this just the imagination of some over-eager F1 pundits?

For a possible rift to exist between Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen, the Mexican has to prove himself to be a worthy contender for the 2023 F1 title. If he's able to do that, there is a possibility that we could see friction between the two Red Bull drivers. Can we see a possible title battle between the drivers and hence a rift between the two?

To answer this question, first, let's take a look at how something like this could happen and if there is any historic precedence to it. In all fairness, we don't have to look too far back as Mercedes was faced with a similar situation between Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton from 2014 to 2016. Both drivers were fierce competitors and they came to blows on multiple occasions. Lewis won the titles in 2014 and 2015, while Rosberg won the title in 2016 and retired soon after.

When trying to answer the Sergio Perez vs Max Verstappen debate, what we are trying to answer is whether there is a possibility that we will see a repeat of what happened at Mercedes from 2014 to 2016.

Now, to do this, first, let's take a look at some of the factors that contributed to a Nico Rosberg vs Lewis Hamilton showdown. We will try to extrapolate these factors to the Max Verstappen vs Sergio Perez rivalry and see how many of these sticks. If we see a trend emerging, then we can say that a potential rivalry between Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez could materialize.

Lewis Hamilton vs Nico Rosberg: Factors that contributed to the rivalry

#1. A dominant car, hence no other rival

From the very first race of the season, it became clear that the title battle was going to be fought between Hamilton and Rosberg. No other rival could even come close to these two. Mercedes was so far ahead of the rest of the grid that the team could score a '1-2' finish every race weekend and the only driver that either Rosberg or Lewis had to beat was their teammate,

As a matter of fact, Mercedes had 11 '1-2' finishes in 19 races in 2014, 12 in 19 races in 2015 and eight in 21 races in 2016. Such dominance meant that the only rival for each driver was going to be their teammate and hence tensions soared between the two.

#2. Reliability issues hurting the more established driver

Lewis Hamilton bore the brunt of reliability issues early in 2014 and 2016 that left him playing catch-up to Nico Rosberg in the championship. More often than not, Lewis had to complete a flawless four-five race run where he won everything to establish himself in the championship.

This kind of stakes meant any small mistake was punished and hence the championship went to the last race of the season.

#3. Rosberg's competitiveness against Hamilton meant the margins were small

Arguably the most important factor that led to tensions between the two Mercedes drivers was the fact that while Hamilton was clearly better, Rosberg stayed within touching distance of him. To add to this, on Rosberg's day, even Hamilton struggled to beat him.

This was the status quo that the two drivers had when they were heading into the 2014 F1 season. In their first season together, while Lewis outscored Nico, there wasn't much of a gap. In fact, if we dig deeper, we will find that the two drivers were extremely close even in 2013.

The 2013 F1 season saw Lewis score 189 points while Nico scored 171. Lewis out qualified Nico 11-9 while Rosberg outraced Lewis 8-7. The fact that there was nothing to choose between the two drivers was what ultimately led to the two drivers falling out when the F1 title was at stake.

Sergio Perez vs Max Verstappen: How do these factors stack up?

Now, let's take a look at how these factors stack up in the potential Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen rivalry this season.

#1. A dominant car, hence no other rival

For Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez as well, this factor does hold true. The kind of advantage that Red Bull enjoys over the rest of the field, the two drivers could be possible title contenders this season. In the first two races, we've already seen two '1-2' finishes for Red Bull, that too in dominant fashion.

There is a major possibility that this season we will end up having a Max Verstappen vs Sergio Perez battle for the title primarily because there is no challenger for Red Bull. In terms of sowing seeds for a potential conflict, there's certainly potential.

#2. Reliability issues balking the more established driver

We've already seen reliability issues hamper Max Verstappen's weekend in Jeddah where he could have won the race. Due to this reliability issue, Perez finds himself only one point adrift of Max Verstappen.

Even last season, if we look at the championship standings after the first three races, Sergio Perez found himself ahead of Max Verstappen. Having said that, this was primarily because Verstappen had suffered DNFs in two of the three races.

If Verstappen suffers from reliability issues in the next race and Perez wins, he will have a more than 20-point lead at the top of the standings. In terms of a potential championship challenge, that is huge and could sow the seeds of conflict between the two drivers.

#3. Perez's competitiveness?

Now, this is where things take a turn. While Rosberg and Hamilton had always been competitive against each other even before they got a dominant car, the same can't be said about Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen.

In the past two seasons, apart from the race in Monaco last season where Perez won, every other race has seen reliability or some other issue play a major role. The race in Saudi Arabia this season was arguably the first time that Perez beat Verstappen fair and square and even that race weekend saw Max suffering from a reliability issue. The kind of competitiveness that was present in the Nico Rosberg-Lewis Hamilton rivalry does not exist here.

Conclusion

Now once we go through all these points, it's safe to say that there are elements that could make things ugly between Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez. However, there is one gaping hole and we have to address it.

Sergio Perez has not shown the ability to sustainably challenge Max Verstappen. The qualifying speed is not there and the race pace more often than not is missing if we compare it with his teammate. Could Perez turn this all around and be far more competitive against Max? Yes, he can. But looking at the data, it looks highly unlikely.

The only possible scenario in which Max ends up getting challenged by Perez is if he suffers from a string of DNFs that help Perez build a gap in the championship standings. Expecting that does fall under 'wishful thinking' though and that's where we stand, unfortunately.

For a 'Max Verstappen vs Sergio Perez' battle to materialize, there needs to be a championship at stake and a level of competition, and on evidence of what we've seen, that's not the case.