Rodgers' Liverpool are dark horses for the title - no more, no less

Liverpool an outside bet for the title?

Watching Liverpool stutter and claw their way across the finish line at Craven Cottage, most Reds fans were struck by an irritating sense of nostalgia. The team has changed, the continental core has been replaced by a British presence and they now score for fun; but as attack after attack broke down in the Fulham half and the SAS combination looked toothless, there was a definite Benitez-era feel to the proceedings. This was the old Liverpool we all knew and loved (?), delivering a blockbuster performance against the table leaders one day, then making a hash of things against the bottom side four days later.

It took 40 minutes for Liverpool to turn up, and only Fulham’s impotency in attack had kept the margin down to 1-0 till then. The 3-2 come-from-behind scoreline and injury-time penalty were evocative of the grit shown by Manchester United at their title-winning best, and getting these 3 points should be a confidence booster. With each difficult win, however, comes the burden of expectations : if they are truly title contenders, they must match these high standards week after week.

Among the many animal metaphors unleashed during this title race, the one employed by Steven Gerrard on Wednesday is perhaps the most accurate – Liverpool are dark horses for the title; no more, no less. They’ve earned the tag, consistently averaging around 2 points per game since the start of the season, but would prefer to be seen on the periphery of the title race.

Pellegrini’s jaguar and Mourinho’s rich little horse continue to furiously pound their way forward, with Wenger’s Arsenal (yet to be thus baptized) still ahead of the Reds; whose foal/chihuahua has grown into a formidable foe but has some apparent weaknesses.

There are still doubts over the squad depth : the first choice back 4 have all been out with injury for several weeks now, and Kolo Toure is clearly struggling to recapture his start-of-season form. Jordan Henderson’s wrist injury could see him miss a few games in the run-in, potentially leaving the team without its most important midfielder. Should Liverpool overcome Arsenal at the Emirates on Sunday, an FA Cup campaign running in parallel could be an added distraction.

Additionally, they have probably the toughest run-in of any contender. The home advantage has been of immense importance to Liverpool this season, with only 5 points dropped at Anfield. But of their 6 remaining home matches, 5 are against sides in the current top 9; the away matches are at relegation battlers like Palace, West Ham and Cardiff. All these sides are likely to shut shop and defend stubbornly, a tactic that Liverpool have often struggled to deal with over the last few years.

A standard Liverpool tactic in big games this season has been the early set piece. They have scored 19 goals from free-kicks, penalties and corners this season – the highest in the division. Against Man United, Chelsea, Everton (twice) and Arsenal, they have used set pieces to wrest a lead in the first 20 minutes, going on to win three and draw one of these five games.

Taking an early lead allows them to sit back and soak up the pressure before counter-attacking through the sheer pace of Suarez, Sturridge or Sterling, benefiting from Gerrard’s excellent long balls.

Against defensively well-organized sides, like Tony Pulis’ Palace or Sam Allardyce’s West Ham, these tactics will be harder to use – especially away from home, where Liverpool have been mediocre this season, winning 5 and drawing 4 of 13 games on the road.

To give their title aspirations a genuine shot in the arm, they will have to start defending better on the road : they haven’t kept a clean sheet in an away match since the 5-0 win at White Hart Lane in mid-December. They have also been rather open at the back, preferring to use their firepower up front to outscore most opponents.

For all those travails, Rodgers’ side are visibly improving with every match – as is their manager. They are as yet unbeaten in 2014, during a month and a half that has seen several tough matches home and away; adding a first EPL win at the Britannia and two major scalps at home to their tally. And they are two favourable results away from leading the table. Of their 48 EPL goals this season, 25, or just over half, have come from their two lead strikers – hardly a sign of overdependence.

On current form, Raheem Sterling is arguably the league’s best winger and Daniel Sturridge inarguably its best striker. Luis Suarez has tailed off from his brilliant December form, but is still a menacing presence in midfield. And Liverpool have coped well with the absence of Lucas Leiva in central midfield, with Gerrard and Philippe Coutinho stepping up in a deeper role.

It is that ability to react to adversity that has seen Rodgers’ second season at Liverpool pan out extremely well. And as it draws to a close, his team will continue to shoot for the moon. Whether they make it or not is a different story.