Indian Wells 2023: Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima preview, head-to-head & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

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Daniil Medvedev (L) and Brandon Nakashima.
Daniil Medvedev (L) and Brandon Nakashima.

Match details

Fixture: (5) Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima

Date: March 10, 2023

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Second round (Round of 64)

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima preview

Daniil Medvedev at the 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships.
Daniil Medvedev at the 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships.

2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev will face off against home favorite Brandon Nakashima in the second round of the 2023 BNP Paribas Open on Friday.

Following a semifinal finish at the Adelaide International 1, Medvedev lost to Sebastian Korda in the third round of the Australian Open. It was his earliest exit from the tournament since 2018. The loss also resulted in his departure from the top 10 of the world rankings.

Medvedev then competed at the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam. He went on to win the title, defeating Jannik Sinner in the final. His winning ways continued at the Qatar Open, where he claimed a second title in as many weeks.

The Russian next featured in the Dubai Tennis Championships. Medvedev made it to the last four with wins over Matteo Arnaldi, Alexander Bublik and Borna Coric. He defeated Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, becoming the first player to inflict a loss on him this year. Medvedev bested Andrey Rublev to clinch his third title in a row.

As the fifth seed at the BNP Paribas Open, he received a first-round bye. He'll now be aiming to make it past the fourth round here for the first time.

Nakashima, meanwhile, faced compatriot John Isner in the first round. The opening set was decided via a tie-break, in which the 21-year-old came out on top after saving a set point.

Nakashima secured a break of serve in the sixth game to go 4-2 up. He solidified his position with a hold of serve to make it 5-2 and soon served out the match to complete a 7-6(7), 6-3 win.


Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head stands at 0-0 for now.


Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets
Total Games
Daniil Medvedev
-1000+1.5 (-3000)
Over 20.5 (-110)
Brandon Nakashima
+550-1.5 (+850)
Under 20.5 (-125)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon Nakashima prediction

Brandon Nakashima at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.
Brandon Nakashima at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Nakashima countered the big-serving Isner quite well in the first round and his own serving stats were pretty good. The young American finished the match with 22 winners, in contrast to just eight unforced errors. It was just his second win of the year.

Nakashima will need to step up big time in order to put a stop to the Medvedev juggernaut from rolling further. The Russian is the most in-form player on the tour right now.

During his recent 14-match winning streak, Medvedev lost just three sets. He's simply too effective from the back of the court and gives nothing away during baseline duels. He also ranks first on the tour with respect to return games won this season.

Nakashima is a talented young player, but is currently going through a rough patch. Given the disparity in their form at the moment, this is likely to be another routine win for Medvedev.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in straight sets.

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