Indian Wells 2023: Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino preview, head-to-head & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

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Dominic Thiem (L) and Adrian Mannarino.
Dominic Thiem (L) and Adrian Mannarino.

Match details

Fixture: (WC) Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino.

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open.

Round: First round (Round of 128).

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA.

Category: ATP Masters 1000.

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt.

Prize money: $8,800,000.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video.


Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino preview

Dominic Thiem at the 2023 Kooyong Classic.
Dominic Thiem at the 2023 Kooyong Classic.

2020 US Open champion Dominic Thiem will square off against Adrian Mannarino in the first round of the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Thiem started the year with a first-round defeat to Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open. He was up for Davis Cup duty after that, but lost both of his singles ties to Croatians Borna Coric and Borna Gojo.

Thiem's first and so far only win of the year was over Alex Molcan in the first round of the Argentina Open. He was stunned by qualifier Juan Pablo Varillas in the next round.

The 29-year old slumped to consecutive opening round exits in his next two tournaments. He lost to Thiago Monteiro and Cristian Garin at the Rio Open and Chile Open respectively.

Thiem is a former champion at the BNP Paribas Open and is competing here for the first time since his title-winning run in 2019. Back then, he defeated Roger Federer in an exciting three-set final.

Meanwhile, Mannarino kicked off the new season by representing France in the United Cup, but failed to get past the group stage. Alex de Minaur knocked him out of the Australian Open in the second round.

Mannarino then reached back-to-back quarterfinals at the Dallas Open and Delray Beach Open. He lost to eventual champions Wu Yibing and Taylor Fritz respectively. At last week's Mexican Open, the Frenchman failed to get past the first round.


Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino head-to-head

Thiem holds a commanding 8-1 lead over Mannarino in the head-to-head. The latter, however, won their previous encounter at the Mallorca Open after the Austrian retired due to an injury.


Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets
Total Games
Dominic Thiem
-115+1.5 (-300)
Over 22.5 (-120)
Adrian Mannarino
-110-1.5 (+200)
Under 22.5 (-120)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino prediction

Mannarino at the 2023 United Cup.
Mannarino at the 2023 United Cup.

Thiem managed to conclude the previous season on a positive note and was expected to ride the momentum wave this year as well. Unfortunately, for him, that hasn't been the case.

With just one win under his belt, Thiem has struggled mightily this year. His return position hasn't done him any favors in matches, while his forehand lacks the usual consistency as well.

Mannarino's only win over Thiem came courtesy of a mid-match retirement. The former US Open champion has been quite dominant against the Frenchman otherwise. He also hasn't been past the opening round here since 2019. With a 8-9 record at the venue, the conditions here don't favor his brand of tennis.

However, with Thiem's current form, the Frenchman should be able to progress further this time around.

Pick: Adrian Mannarino to win in straight sets.

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