US Open 2021: Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald

Date: 2 September 2021

Tournament: 2021 US Open

Round: Second round (Round of 64)

Venue: Flushing Meadows, New York

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $40,560,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel & ESPN/ESPN 2 | UK - Amazon Prime Video | India - Star Sports / Disney+ Hotstar VIP

Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald preview

Kei Nishikori is currently ranked 56th in the world, which isn't a position you would normally associate with a former US Open finalist. But Nishikori, who is no stranger to injuries, has been struggling for fitness for most of the last year.

The Japanese barely played in 2020, and that saw him plummet down the rankings. In fact, even in the lead-up to this year's US Open, Nishikori had to pull out of the second round of the Toronto Masters, citing the need to rest a sore right shoulder.

But while the 31-year-old might not be at the peak of his powers right now, he is not an easy man to put away by any stretch of imagination. Most of his defeats this season have come either against top players or to those in a rich vein of form.

In his first-round match at Flushing Meadows, Nishikori overcame a stiff challenge from Salvatore Caruso. The Japanese created 14 break point opportunities and converted nine of them, and even though he did drop the third set, he looked in control for the most part.

Mackenzie McDonald in action against David Goffin in the first round of the 2021 US Open

Mackenzie McDonald, on the other hand, is having a career-best season. He has already notched up 15 victories on the main tour this season, surpassing his previous best of 10 wins in 2019.

The 26-year-old has also been one of the more in-form players heading into this year's US Open. He recently made the first final of his career in Washington, where he lost to Jannik Sinner.

As an unseeded player in the draw, McDonald drew 27th seed David Goffin in his opening round. But the American, currently ranked 61st in the world, could have been touted a slight favorite in that match given Goffin's poor recent form.

McDonald made that difference in form count as he dispatched the Belgian in straight sets. The 26-year-old saved five of the six break points he faced and broke Goffin five times to set up the second-round clash against Nishikori.

Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald head-to-head

Mackenzie McDonald and Kei Nishikori have squared off against each other just once before on the ATP tour. The meeting came in the lead-up to this year's US Open itself - on an outdoor hardcourt in the semifinals of Washington - where the American prevailed in a tight deciding set. McDonald, therefore, leads their career head-to-head 1-0.

That said, Nishikori did score a victory over McDonald on the Challenger tour in 2018, on an indoor hardcourt in Dallas.

Kei Nishikori vs Mackenzie McDonald prediction

Elo ratings provided by Tennis Abstract were used to generate a tournament forecast prior to the start of the US Open.

Kei Nishikori entered the tournament at 1858 Elo and his tournament-adjusted Elo is 1872. Mackenzie McDonald, on the other hand, entered the tournament at 1738 Elo, and his tournament-adjusted Elo is 1752.

The difference in their scores equates to a win probability of 66.61% for Nishikori.

Nishikori is expected to win around 61% of his service points, while McDonald is expected to win around 57% of his.

Prediction: Kei Nishikori to win in four sets.