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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Iga Swiatek vs (2) Aryna Sabalenka
Date: May 4, 2024
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Final
Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €7,877,020
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN2
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka preview
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek will lock horns with defending champion Aryna Sabalenka for the title of the 2024 Madrid Open on Saturday.
Swiatek defeated Wang Xiyu, Sorana Cirstea and Sara Sorribes Tormo in straight sets to reach the quarterfinals. She then rallied from a set down to oust Beatriz Haddad Maia to make the semifinals, where she was up against Madison Keys.
Swiatek claimed the opening set dominantly as she conceded just a single game in it. Keys raised her level in the second set but it was nowhere near enough to stop the Pole, who won the match 6-1, 6-3.
Sabalenka commenced her title defense with three-set wins over Magda Linette, Robin Montgomery, and Danielle Collins. She next scored an easy 6-1, 6-4 win over Mirra Andreeva to reach the last four, where she took on World No. 4 Elena Rybakina.
Sabalenka was completely outplayed in the first set and lost it quite tamely as she bagged just one game for herself. She went down a break twice in the second set and was just a couple of points away from defeat.
Rybakina missed an easy putaway shot at 5-4, 30-30 while she served for the match. Sabalenka managed to break her serve and bagged the next couple of games as well to take the set.
Both players put on a solid display of their serving prowess in the third set. Sabalenka led Rybakina 5-1 in the ensuing tie-break but the latter narrowed the gap to make it 6-5. However, the Belarusian held her nerve to score a 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (5) comeback win.
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka head-to-head
Swiatek leads Sabalenka 6-3 in the head-to-head. The Pole won their most recent encounter at the 2023 WTA Finals in straight sets.
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction
Swiatek has won most of her matches in an emphatic manner during the tournament. She has dropped just one set en route to the final and has won at least one set by a margin of 6-0 or 6-1 in each of her matches.
Sabalenka's form took a nosedive after her successful title defence at the Australian Open. She has found her footing after a tough couple of months in the Spanish capital. Unlike Swiatek, the Belarusian had to fight for her life time and time again.
Sabalenka has won just one of her matches in straight sets and trailed by a break and a set twice, against Collins and Rybakina. However, her fighting spirit got her over the hump on both occasions.
Swiatek and Sabalenka have been the tour's most consistent players for quite some time now. The two fought in last year's Madrid Open final as well, with the Belarusian edging past her younger rival.
Swiatek leads their rivalry 6-3 and also has a 3-1 edge on clay. Sabalenka's record in Madrid is something to behold. She has won the title twice but has left the tournament without a win on all other occasions.
Sabalenka is quite close to maintaining her all-or-nothing record in Madrid. However, Swiatek's superior form and overall record on clay make her the favorite to capture her first title at the venue.
Pick: Iga Swiatek to win in three sets.
