Why South Africa might go on to win the ODI series against India ?

Winning the first game of the series is key to the overall series success of the Proteas

We have just witnessed one match, the first one out of the five, at Green Park, Kanpur. Things already seem to be in the Proteas’ grasp, now that they have eked out the first encounter by a close margin of five runs.

It was a brilliant match, played tooth and nail by both teams, with the visiting side holding onto their nerves when it mattered most to pocket the early initiative which often turns out to be the decider for them.

A good start to the series is key to success for South Africa

We have only witnessed three games – two T20Is and a single 50-over game – all wrapped up by the Proteas so far. But the Proteas’ history suggests they are very much in the series, despite being called ‘Underdogs’ by many pundits. If this very theme is seen through a wider scope, then as per the stats and records, South Africa has a knack of wrapping a series once they pull off the first one of the series, home or away.

Whenever the Proteas have won the first match of their home series, they have always gone on to win the series either by 3-2 or 4-1. Be it against Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India, West Indies, they have always wrapped the series in the end after sealing the opening encounter.

In the last five years, India twice toured the Rainbow Nation and in both occasions South Africa won the first ODI and went on to win 3-2 and 2-0 respectively. Touring abroad did not make much difference to this very subtle trend. In UAE, a De Villiers-led South Africa went on to win 4-1 in 2013 after winning the first encounter of the series. In Sri Lanka, the following year, they won 2-1 having won the first quite easily. In the series against Zimbabwe and West Indies, the same trend followed.

However the last time South Africa toured India, Wayne Parnell’s run out cost them the opening game by a solitary run and they never managed to get into the series; Sachin Tendulkar’s double ton earned India a 2-1 win, with the Proteas winning the dead rubber.

A couple of years later, in Sri Lanka, they even lost out 4-1 after losing the opening two encounters. When they went on a tour Down Under last year in November, they lost the first in Perth (though they won the next in Perth again) and failed to hit back into the series. They ultimately succumbed to an embarrassing 4-1 defeat. Steven Smith’s heavy tons turned out to be the root cause of the Proteas’ downfall.

The only time this trend was reversed was quite recently in Bangladesh where despite winning the first game, they suffered heavy losses in the next two. However, that was under temporary-skipper Hashim Amla’s guidance.

As far as stats and history go, Proteas drawing the first blood might prove to be the secret that paves an easy series win for them.

Off-field distractions reason for India’s recent performances?

Besides the facts, after witnessing the first encounter at Kanpur, it seems quite obvious that the Indian team has not really found any rhythm and is still nervous shifting and sorting players in the line-up.

Barring Rohit Sharma’s magical hundred and fifty, everybody else in the set-up looked out of sorts and really found it hard to chase down the remainder of the runs after the bulk was already done by the Mumbai opener.

The middle order looked rather ordinary in the way they went about their business, playing casually and taking the game until the very end. Raina’s faulty shot selection has to be taken into consideration after this opening loss.

Virat Kohli seems too distracted after failing cheaply yet again. His involvement in various ownership deals – lately that of the co-ownership of UAE Royals, and co-ownership of Pune City FC in ISL – seem to be taking a toll upon his performances.

MS Dhoni consequently might have to take the majority of the blame for the team’s dismal performances. Ravi Ashwin’s absence probably for the next two games would definitely aggravate the situation for the home skipper and subsequently give the visiting side an advantage to really assert their dominance in the series.

Coming to the visiting team, they seem to have already got an early idea how to eke out narrow wins from down and out situations; Kagiso Rabada’s brilliance in the final over might perhaps compel De Villiers to give the youngster another chance.

Farhaan Behardien, who was perhaps the weakest link in the lineup, came to the party at the right time scoring an useful thirty-odd runs as well as picking the crucial wicket of Rahane to give South Africa a much-required opening in the game.

De Villiers own mind-boggling innings would send a strong message to the Indian side ahead of the upcoming matches as well.

So, in all probability now that Ashwin is out of the equation and stats are favouring the visiting side, South Africa are very much on course to win another away ODI series.