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With the 2022-23 NBA season about to come to a close this week, this year’s MVP race is still neck and neck.
Most would agree that the race has been narrowed down to three candidates - superstars Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. In ESPN's Tim Bontemps’ latest straw poll, Embiid finished in first place by just two points.
Meanwhile, NBA.com’s latest Kia MVP ladder has Jokic in first. So on that note, let’s take a look at the case for each superstar.
Joel Embiid’s MVP case
Embiid is leading the league in scoring with a career-high average of 33.0 points per game. He's also averaging 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 3-pointers per game on 54.2% shooting.
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The big man has played in 64 of the Sixers’ 78 games. Philly (51-27, third in the East) is 42-22 with Embiid. The Sixers have fared pretty well without him, going 9-5.
Embiid has a team-best on-court net rating of 8.9. The Sixers’ net rating drops to a team-worst -1.7 with him on the bench. That's the difference between the league's best and 24th-best team net ratings.
For his defense, Embiid is holding opponents to 47.5% shooting (2.3% below their average). Embiid is also the only player still in contention for MVP who has never won the award before. Both Jokic and Antetokounmpo have won two MVP awards apiece, which could give Embiid an advantage in a close race.
Nikola Jokic’s MVP case
Jokic is averaging 24.9 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 9.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.7 bpg and 0.9 3pg on 63.4% shooting. He's 0.1 apg away from averaging a triple-double for the season on 60.0%-plus shooting. Jokic has a league-leading 29 triple-doubles, with the next-highest player having just 12. The Serb is also second in double-doubles (56).
The big man has played in 67 of the Nuggets' 78 games. Denver (52-26, first in the West) is 48-19 with Jokic and just 4-7 without him. The Nuggets are also on track to finish first in the Western Conference for the first time.
Jokic has a team-best on-court net rating of 13.3. The Nuggets’ net rating drops to a team-worst -11.7 with him on the bench. That's the difference between the best and worst team net ratings in the league by a wide margin.
However, Jokic is the weakest defender of the three MVP contenders, as opposing players shoot 50.8% (0.4% below their average) against him.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP case
Antetokounmpo has been the best player on the best team in the league for most of the season. He's averaging a career-high 31.1 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 5.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.8 bpg and 0.8 3pg on 55.3% shooting.
He has played in 62 of the Bucks’ 78 games. Milwaukee (56-22, first in the East) is 46-16 with Antetokounmpo but have fared pretty well without him, going 10-6. Antetokounmpo has an on-court net rating of 6.9, the second-best on his team behind co-star Jrue Holiday. The Bucks’ net rating drops to -0.7 when Antetokounmpo is on the bench. That's the difference between the league's best and 22nd-best net ratings.
When it comes to defense, Antetokounmpo is easily the best defender of the three MVP contenders. He's holding opponents to just 41.7% shooting (7.0% below their average) and remains a legitimate contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Final verdict
In the end, most would agree that there's no right or wrong answer for MVP this season.
There's a strong case for Joel Embiid to win as the NBA’s leading scorer and someone who has never won the award. There's also a strong case for Nikola Jokic as the NBA’s leader in triple-doubles, having a hyper-efficient season.
Jokic has also made the biggest impact on his team’s success in terms of advanced stats. Then there's a strong case for Giannis Antetokounmpo as the best player on the best team in the NBA. So fans will just have to wait and see which candidate voters end up going with.
