Will Baylor make the March Madness 2024? Breaking down Bears NCAA tournament odds

Baylor kicked off the 2023-24 NCAA men's basketball season with a bang, winning its first nine games.

However, its 9-0 start was snapped with back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke before bouncing back in the next five games, winning all of them to move to 14-2.

Baylor's five-game winning streak was halted, though, as it lost its next three games to Kansas State, Texas and TCU. The Bears seemed to respond pretty well with losing streaks this season, as they won five of their next six games to go 19-6 overall (8-4 in Big 12). They are No. 11 in the AP Top 25 rankings.

Their next six games will be critical for their aspirations of securing a higher seeding in the NCAA Tournament. They face four Top 25 teams - No. 25 BYU, No. 2 Houston, No. 9 Kansas and No. 23 Texas Tech.

Finishing the regular season strong will help Baylor impress the selection committee and get an easy journey in the tournament.

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Will Baylor make the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

Baylor has two choices in its next six games: finish with a winning mark to impress the selectors or play lackluster ball and be relegated to a lower ranking.

As their record stands, they have a great chance of making it to the tournament proper. The question is what will be Baylor's position when the regular season draws to a close.

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Baylor NCAA tournament history

The Bears have 15 NCAA tournament appearances, including in 2021, when they won the National Championship, beating Gonzaga in the final, 86-70.

Last year, the Bears were one of the four No. 3 seeds in the NCAA tournament. They manhandled No. 14 UC Santa Barbara, 74-56, in the first round but fell to No. 6 Creighton in the second.

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Baylor March Madness odds

Baylor Bears RayJ Dennis reacts to a big play.

Baylor is ranked 11th in the AP poll and is No. 3 in the Big 12 rankings, behind No. 6 Iowa State and No. 2 Houston.

RealGM has placed Baylor's odds to win the championship at +3500, while its preseason national championship odds are at +4000. Meanwhile, its pre-new year national championship odds are +2000.

Bracketology projections from TeamRankings.com give Baylor a 100% chance of making the NCAA tournament. The Bears have a 30.0% chance of making the tourney as tge No. 2 seed.

They have an 11.7 chance of grabbing a Final Four spot and a 2.0% chance of winning the tournament.

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Baylor strengths

Offense

Baylor is the 26th-best team in the NCAA in points per game (83.0). The Bears are 47th in 3-pointers made, at 9.0/contest, and are 67th in assists per game, at 16.7.

Steals

Baylor's 7.0 steals per game is ranked sixth in the Big 12.

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Baylor weaknesses

Rebounding

The Bears are not a good rebounding team, as they are ranked 10th in the conference in rebounding (35.1 boards per game).

Blocks

Baylor is in the bottom half of the conference when it comes to blocks per game, at 3.4.

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Baylor's quadrant records

According to bballnet.com, Baylor is 6-4 against Quadrant 1 teams. They are a lot better against Quadrant 2 teams, with a 4-2 mark. The Bears are a combined 8-0 against Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 opponents, though.