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The expectation surrounding England in the final of the ICC Champions Trophy is reasonably meek. Not only do the English view this tournament as a second rate warm-up tournament for the huge Ashes series just 18 days away, they see a side that has scraped through to the final thanks to rain delays and a South African side suffering the traditional semi-final capitulation.
There have been some plus points of course but compared to the supreme progress of their opponents, India, England seem almost snail pace in comparison. This is not the same Indian side that were utterly shambolic when they last visited these shores two years ago. The new generation of Shikhar Dhawan, Virat Kohli and Bhuvneshwar Kumar have reinvigorated a jaded fielding side to one of gusto and spring and have carried that into their batting and bowling.
India have been the form side in the tournament since day one whilst England’s pragmatic approach has got results albeit without turning almost any heads barring their home fans. Their recent record is also dismal against India, which stands at an 8-2 losing record in their recent meetings. So just how can England pull off what seems like an improbable task tomorrow? These three things almost need to happen.
Anderson removes Dhawan early
Whilst England’s batting has sometimes needed extra impedance, their bowling attack – as per usual- has been exceptional. Stuart Broad, Ravi Bopara and Tim Bresnan have offered good workmanlike support to the two star performers, James Tredwell and James Anderson. Tredwell has often been overshadowed by Graeme Swann but this tournament has showed just effective his economic and minor turn actually is. Anderson has been sensational opening the bowling for England this tournament. He’s the second highest wicket taker of the campaign and has a economy rate of 3.84, which for an opening bowler is fantastic.
This is going to be a key battle for England to win if they have any chance of winning this match. Dhawan has been the best batsman of the tournament by far and has offered India a huge platform from which they have been able to build almost all of their innings on. If Anderson can remove him early then India might struggle to recover from this massive blow. With the extensive batting lineup they have with Kohli, Raina and a largely unused Dhoni waiting, this is still a big leap of faith but removing a batsman of Dhawan’s quality early is always a good start.
England’s middle order fire
When a team has finishers like the calibre of Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler in their side, you would expect them to have scored more than 66 runs between them. Ravi Bopara has been a jack of all trades with a better strike rate than Steven Finn and Tim Bresnan and has shown what he can do with the bat with his brilliant 46 and 33 in the first two matches. But with an Indian attack that has four bowlers inside the top 10 wicket takers, England need more than Bopara to fire if they want to win.
England’s safety first approach to batting may get them runs but it does leave a lot of pressure for the middle order to score runs quickly in the final third of the game. When you have bowlers such as Ravi Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja bowling at that time, this is a much more difficult proposition. Morgan and Buttler have all the talent in the world but now they need to deliver and not leave all the burden on Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott to keep scoring runs at the top of the order.
The Weather
One of the most interesting aspects of this tournament is that English conditions have been few and far between. Now that the rains are returning for a showery day in Birmingham, the conditions would suit England. They – Anderson in particular – would pray the new ball to swing plus a bit of seam movement so guys like Broad and Bresnan might impose themselves.
If there is a sublime batting surface with the low bounce and carry that has been surprisingly common this tournament and prolonged period of sunshine, then India are the clear favourites. India have not faced true seam bowling yet in the tournament so far with South Africa’s sub-par attack the closest they’ve come. Admittedly, Dhawan and Sharma treated them with absolute disdain but if weather conditions favour them and Anderson can once again swing the ball with the joyfully destructive power only he possesses, this might be India’s undoing.
