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The 2023 F1 season saw Red Bull dominate from start to finish. It did, however, have one very interesting phenomenon where the closest challenger for the Austrian team continued to change. At the start of the season, it was Aston Martin.
The team raked up six podiums in the first eight races with Fernando Alonso. Then we saw Ferrari, McLaren, and McLaren take turns at being the second-best car on a particular track.
This was never constant and it was something that changed with every race. With the 2024 F1 season now getting ever closer, it does appear that the front of the grid has started to take shape with as many as five teams in this group.
The likes of Alpine are some distance away as the top five teams seem to have broken away from the pack. While one would expect Red Bull and Max Verstappen to still be competitive (hopefully not too competitive), it is interesting to see who would be its closest challenger.
Will it be Mercedes? Or McLaren? Or Ferrari? Or Aston Martin? In this feature, we try to find the answer to this question.
Who could be Red Bull's closest challenger in 2024?
Aston Martin
What works?
The major positive for the team appeared to be the kind of jump that it made from 2022 to 2023. The team has shown that it can build a good car. It has also shown that it can dig itself out of a hole similar to what it found itself in 2023 where the car just lost all performance.
For the 2024 F1 season, Aston Martin has the talented personnel in place that could help build a strong car.
What doesn't?
One of the major issues for the team is that it fell behind in the development race last season. How will it then make up the gap is a question that only has the answer.
To add to this, Aston Martin is essentially a one-driver team with Fernando Alonso being the only reliable option as Lance Stroll continues to struggle. When we have such a scenario, it does make it hard to expect the team to pull out the results that the car deserves.
What are the projections for 2024?
The 2023 F1 season showed that Aston Martin can be a close contender to Red Bull. The overall season has shown that there are gaps within the team that need to be filled.
McLaren
What works?
Arguably the team with the best platform to attack Red Bull as it was the first to change concepts.
To add to this, the team showed an inherent ability to be close to Red Bull on certain tracks, something that is a positive sign for the team going forward.
What doesn't?
This has to be the team's inability to have a strong winter. The last time McLaren had a strong winter, Lewis Hamilton was the champion of the world. This is arguably one Achilles heel that the team needs to be careful of.
What are the projections for 2024?
In terms of foundation, McLaren seems to have the best one. It has already moved to the Red Bull car concept and hence has a decent number of laps under the car.
If the team emerges as the second-fastest car behind Red Bull, then it wouldn't be a surprise.
Ferrari
What works?
For Ferrari, the biggest positive has to be the somewhat Sanguine approach that the team had to the 2023 F1 season. The team figured out a lot of things and found performance with even a flawed concept.
2024 will be Fred Vasseur's second year with the team and his impact will be more prominent this season.
What doesn't?
The fact that 95 percent of the cars for 2024 will be new is both a good and a bad thing. It's good because it means there's a bigger scope for improvement.
However, it's a major negative because the team doesn't have the mileage under the belt to be in the best position from the start of the season.
What are the projections for 2024?
There are signs to be positive about for Ferrari but the shift to a more Red Bull concept car means there's still some catch that needs to be done.
Mercedes
What works?
For Mercedes, arguably the biggest positive has to be the fact that the team now has clarity over what it needs to do with the car. For the first two seasons, the team spent most of the time trying to figure out how to make the car work.
With a more predictable baseline and with James Allison back in the fold, we might see something different this time around, for which the Mercedes fans should be optimistic.
What doesn't?
Similar to Ferrari, Mercedes would be moving to the Red Bull concept this season which means that the team will need to understand the car again. That was a major issue last season which begs the question of whether it has been taken care of by now.
What are the projections for 2024?
For Mercedes, it's a bit of a shot in the dark if we back the German team because some of the signs have not been that positive. Having said that, the team finished second in the championship last season despite an unpredictable car. It could possibly do better with a better car.
