David de Gea: An excellent individual season of saving Manchester United, but did he really save them?

As the popular narrative goes, if not for David de Gea, Manchester United would have had a worse season. But was that really the case? Could it be the actual opposite of him being the problem that’s stopping them from moving upwards as a team rather than their savior? Having looked into the season that he and the team have had, we've attempted to figure out whether the praise is true, or a myth.

It’s key to first define the job of a goalkeeper; their job is to prevent the opposition from scoring goals. A common myth is that their job is to save shots. In a sense, it is true that if you save shots, it does prevent a goal, but the job extends much further than just saving shots.

Another thing that a lot of people speak about is the comparison between shot stopping and shot prevention. Many claim that shot stopping is more important. Think of it as a game of probabilities, if one attempts to stop a shot, there is still a chance that a goal is scored.

Whereas if you prevent the shot, there is no chance that a shot leads to a goal, since there would be no shot. To add some context, Liverpool's Alisson Becker has the best save percentage in the league with 76%. This means that he was unable to save 24% of the shots that he faced this season. However, if he were to prevent these shots, then there is a 0% chance of a shot leading to a goal.

Now onto De Gea, we’ve looked at some of the main aspects of a goalkeeper’s game; shot stopping, shot prevention, and distribution, which is key in a possession-based side (as Erik ten Hag plays).

De Gea's Shot Stopping

De Gea save vs Brighton

We can break shot-stopping down into three main categories: 1 vs. 1s, longshots, and mid-range shots (those that don’t classify as a 1 vs.1 or a longshot). De Gea concedes a worrying number of longshots. He appears to see the flight of the ball too late and dives too late without being able to cover the corners.

This was clearly shown with Moises Caicedo’s goal at the Amex and Granit Xhaka’s at the Emirates. He’s always been weak with long shots, he's seen being subpar with them numerous times in the past and again this season. It is a worrying trend.

Moving onto his 1 vs. 1s, as per the data from @Jhdharrison1 (Head Data Scientist at Goalkeeper.com), De Gea is negative in terms of 1 vs 1 saves – (minus) expected saves per 90 (p90). This shows that he’s conceded more than expected, further proving that his shot stopping isn’t as good as it seems.

@Jhdharrison1: Goalkeeper 1 vs 1 performance

Using his p90 stat, he's conceded around 17 1 vs 1s this season that he shouldn’t have, which isn’t ideal for a goalkeeper of his calibre. It’s important to mention that he does face a lot of 1 vs 1s, but many of the goalkeepers in the positive section face more and save more.

You may ask, why did De Gea concede so many 1 vs 1s then; it’s mostly down to his poor technique. Whenever a forward approaches him in a 1 vs 1, he fails to come out in order to close down the angle. He also positions himself in such a way that his body is very tight, making him very easy to beat.

It's doubtful that this was intentional but it is very worrying that De Gea has regressed so much in his one vs one positioning and performance. Now forwards aren’t even scared of having to go one vs one with him. With this tight body shape, he leaves a lot of space for the forward to shoot at, hence making it much easier for them to score.

This leaves the subcategory of mid-range shots, ones that neither classify as a longshot, nor a 1 vs 1. This is also an area where the xG is much lower, hence he is expected to save a lot more of these shots. This is the category that he performs in due to the lower difficulty of the shots.

Overall, this proves that De Gea is good at one aspect of shot stopping (mid-range), he has conceded 0.2 more goals than expected (based of PSxG – GA), and ranks fourth in this category. Some say that his shot-stopping is world-class, but everything shows that he is in fact just a decent shot stopper.

De Gea's Shot Prevention

De Gea high claim

Shot prevention is the most important part of a goalkeeper’s game, and in De Gea’s case, it is one of his worst attributes. As per the FBref end-of-season report, De Gea faced an average of eight crosses per game, and only stopped 3.3% of them, ranking him in the sixth percentile for crosses stopped and crosses stopped %.

When a goalkeeper stops a cross, they immediately remove pressure off their backline as the defender no longer has the need to contest for a high ball. This is very important against certain sides that are aerially dominant in attack as it reduces the chances of your team’s defenders getting beaten in the air.

It also affects a team’s set piece strategy. If they know that the goalkeeper is poor at dealing with high balls, they will look to target the six-yard box where the defense is most vulnerable and the goalkeeper has little chance of saving a shot. Having a strong, commanding keeper prevents teams from doing this, as instead they will need to work their set pieces differently due to the keeper coming out to claim the high ball.

Cross stopping mostly depends on the goalkeeper. Alisson is in the 46th percentile for crosses stopped, and 75th percentile for % crosses stopped. It is crucial to Liverpool’s side as he looks to ease the pressure off the back line.

Further, goalkeepers in a defensively-worse side are also able to stop crosses, Nick Pope is a key example of this; Burnley have been relegated this season yet Pope has completed 46 high claims, which is almost six times the number that De Gea completed. The lack of cross stopping hurts our side and constantly puts us under pressure aerially.

The other main part of shot prevention is sweeping. Sweeping is necessary in a high line as the goalkeeper has a lot of space that they need to command. There will be a lot of chances created by the opposition, from simple long balls to pacy forwards, and a goalkeeper must deal with these.

Sweeping is the task of rushing out to clear away the ball, or closing down the angle for a shot by making their body bigger. Having said this, even in a low block when the defence is beaten, the goalkeeper is expected to sweep instead of staying on his line.

De Gea is terrible at sweeping, and it’s also one of the main reasons why he concedes so many one vs one goals. As per FBref, he has completed 0.24 sweeping actions p90, ranking him in the sixth percentile, these actions aren’t very far off from his goal. We can compare this to the number that Alisson completes, 1.75 p90 ranking him in the 96th percentile.

Alisson arguably has the best defense in the league, yet he has to sweep a lot every game, why’s that? Liverpool play a high line, hence they need a proactive goalkeeper. As long as United continue to attempt to play a high line with De Gea, they will fail. De Gea is not a proactive keeper and relies too heavily on his defense to deal with every ball.

Both measures of shot prevention aren’t in De Gea’s favour whatsoever. They show that he is a timid goalkeeper who cannot command his area and does not help his back line at all due to the lack of crosses that he deals with.

Having such terrible shot prevention means that you have to make up for it in other categories, but that is not the case as again with his shot stopping. He’s conceded more than he should have, making him an overall net negative in the "primary job of a goalkeeper".

De Gea's Distribution

De Gea taking a goal kick

In different systems, distribution can mean different things. The goalkeeper should be able to complete most of his short passes and not be turning over possession in dangerous areas due to his poor distribution. Then, in a possession-based system, a goalkeeper may be expected to play line-breaking passes, as Ederson, Alisson and Robert Sanchez all do.

In the Goalkeepers Distribution model, De Gea ranks right at the very bottom, showing that he is the worst performing goalkeeper in terms of distribution. As per FBref, he has attempted around 16 passes p90, ranking him in the second percentile amongst Premier League goalkeepers.

Alisson attempted 33, ranking him in the 87th percentile. In a possession-based side that both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick attempted to play, the goalkeeper must be adept with the ball at his feet, almost playing as a third centre-back. De Gea is quite the opposite, being one of the key reasons why both managers failed.

As Steve McClaren (Manchester United’s assistant manager for next season) has described, "with one pass, the goalkeeper can eliminate the whole team". De Gea is not able to do that, which is a major worry as he is practically unsellable at this point.

Further, the goalkeeper must instil confidence in the side as he should always be a player who’s available for the pass and be a calming prescence in the side.

There have been numerous occasions this season where a defender has passed the ball back to De Gea, and he has kicked it away for a turn over in dangerous positions. This is terrible as it constantly leads to the team being under opposition pressure, which increases the volume of defending required, and the chance of a goal being scored.

It also limits the ability to play the way a team wants to. It cannot implement this possession-based style of football when it has a player who constantly gives the ball away in the defensive third under no pressure.

Even when you ignore advanced distribution, De Gea is incredibly poor at doing the basics. He’s not good with his feet, and he’s not a calming influence on the side, defenders aren’t able to pass the ball back to him as they do not trust him with the ball. In order for Ten Hag to implement his possession football, he must either train De Gea to be better with the ball, or use a different goalkeeper.