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Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
The early kick-off on Saturday has a few storylines running through it. The master and the apprentice relationship between Jose Mourinho and his former assistant Andre Villas-Boas being the main one. They have not exactly been the best of friends since their parting of ways and they bring two of the league’s best side’s so far to this match. Tottenham have somewhat slipped under the radar for their good start, probably due to not blowing sides away as yet.
I always put emphasis on defensive attributes now, having been stung previously when preferring attacking stats. Tottenham have so far only conceded a single goal this season and have also not lost a match. The signings made over the summer with the Gareth Bale money, for me, make them a much stronger side and I certainly wouldn’t rule out a serious push towards the peak of the table the way they’re going. If they sign another reliable striker in January, they would have almost a perfectly balanced squad. AVB also seems to be handling the rotation of players well in these early days.
Chelsea haven’t started as well under Jose Mourinho as many expected. You could even argue that Rafael Benitez had them playing better towards the end of last season. That being said, Mourinho is not doing terribly. The main gripe people have is with his, now typical, side-lining of formerly important players. The fact he has done this at seemingly every club he has managed has made his decision to keep Juan Mata and David Luiz away from the side seem a little childish to some observers. Chelsea look to me to be a typical Mourinho side currently, just without a reliable goalscorer. The decision to let Romelu Lukaku go out on loan and to be stuck with Fernando Torres and Demba Ba shows up the paucity of Chelsea’s options. I think Mourinho would happily leave this match with a draw and his side look a bit short for a win to me.
Hull City v West Ham, Saturday 1500
I’m struggling a little bit to find anything that stands out as a bet in the Premier League at the weekend to be quite honest. It’s never easy anyway, but only this and the Fulham v Cardiff match seem to represent anything like value for me. I’m going to plump for this as the payout will be bigger.
Hull have started the season better than many expected under Steve Bruce following promotion. I have mentioned before that I am not at all sold on Bruce’s abilities as a manager and think he’s often wasted a lot of money on not improving Birmingham and Sunderland. However, he can certainly get a side to a position of safety in the Premier League, I just wouldn’t expect any more. With Hull, he looks to be going the same way. To give him some more credit, I also believe the signing of Tom Huddlestone may well be one of the best bits of business this summer. Whilst he never lived up to his early billing at Tottenham, he showed that even in the higher reaches of the league he can be a valuable player. His early passing and settling influence in Hull’s midfield have been a huge boost to the side. Unfortunately with only Danny Graham as a striker, Hull do look a little light on goals.
West Ham are still after a first away win in six months in the Premier League. This didn’t harm them too much last season as they finished tenth and could be put down to a definite tactical approach by manager Sam Allardyce. Allardyce has always been a pragmatist and will know that his side aren’t going to crack Europe any time soon and that mid-table is about their position. With this in mind, their best chances is to avoid relegation scraps and hope for a good cup run or surge up the league. This will be done on the back of not losing many away matches and making the Boleyn Ground something of a fortress. So the set-up for away matches is damage limitation. They also lack a goalscorer, especially with Andy Carroll again suffering from an injury.
Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100
Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded 12. I think they’re worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.
Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side, you wouldn’t necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They’ve only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on match day one.
Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they’ll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest, this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.
I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit its peak in last weekend’s 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he’s been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter’s best player so far as a play-maker. They’ve already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari’s tactics are worth backing again.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730
Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on smaller squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six matches and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.
Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad, I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion, having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
The two big boys of the Bundesliga have flown out of the marks this season and currently Borussia Dortmund are impressing more. There was huge disappointment at the club when it was announced that Mario Gotze would be moving to Bayern Munich, but they seem to have improved the side with the money brought in. Henrik Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have slotted in seemlessly and have added more goals and pace to an already formidable attacking line. Even the decision to let Robert Lewandowski see out his contract seems to not have affected his form, with him putting in no less effort for the team. And then there’s Marco Reus. He’s becoming more and more appreciated outside of Germany, but I consider him to be one of the finest attackers in Europe. His constant running and positive movement have fitted right in at Dortmund and he is thriving again this season. The team have scored 16 in six already and whilst there are issues at the back, they’ll be unlikely to be exploited this weekend. It’s going to be a two horse race in Germany, but with two fine horses!
Freiburg were probably the surprise package of the Bundesliga last season, but were taken apart by bigger clubs over the summer. They finished fifth in the league and qualified for the Europa League and are another side ill-equipped for the extra competition. The German DFB Pokal was also on this week and this will add another match to their diaries before the league’s form side turns up. It doesn’t look good for Freiburg.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1400
My Turkish tips have not come up great so far this season. Whilst I still think there’s value in the draws in such a low scoring league, I may move away from that particular shout as it’s prone to leave you very disappointed if a late winner is scored for either side!
Elazigspor were promoted last season and did well to finish safely in lower mid-table away from the dangers of a relegation scrap. As many sides in Turkey do, they relied upon home form to drag them through and only lost four matches in their own ground all season. They drew seven too as well as winning six with a brilliant goals against record of 17. Their problems lay in the fact they only managed to score 14 in those 17 matches. That they have already scored four in two home matches for a win and a draw, is therefore an encouraging sign of improvement for them. They are unbeaten so far and look a strong team.
Sivasspor so far have a very stereotypical record for the SuperLig with two wins and a loss at home and two defeats from two away. They’ve conceded six in those two away matches and look short odds to get anything out of this match.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1700
Kasimpasa are shaping up to be the Super Lig’s entertainers so far with them scoring in every game after their season opener. In their other four matches, they have been involved in two matches with three goals and matches with four and five goals. What this backs up is that their defence leaves a lot to be desired, but that their attack is good and they seemingly keep plugging away, possibly without learning! The Turkish matches seem to often be priced up as though all matches are even and that means low on goals.
Eskisehirspor are often to be found nearer the top than the bottom of the table. Their away form last season was actually okay by Turkish standards with seven draws, six losses and four defeats in total. The best part was that they only conceded 20 goals in those matches, a fine record for anyone outside the Istanbul giants. They have already conceded four away from home in this season’s two matches though. They have in fact been involved in a 2-1 and a 3-2 in their last two matches, showing that at present the balance between attack and defence is off.
