ATP Cincinnati Draw Analysis - Which of the Big Four will triumph this week?

The second of the back-to-back Masters Series events heading into the US Open is underway in Cincinnati. Heading into last week’s Rogers Cup in Montreal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray were the clear favourites for the final Grand Slam of the year.

But Rafael Nadal has put himself back in the mix with his stunning title run in Montreal. Roger Federer is also back this week for his only hard court tune-up event before New York, setting the stage for an exciting week ahead. Here’s our preview of the men’s draw at the Western & Southern Open.

Novak Djokovic reacts to a lost point while playing Rafael Nadal during the semi-finals of the Rogers Cup at Uniprix Stadium on August 10, 2013 in Montreal, Canada. (Getty Images)

First Quarter:

World number one Novak Djokovic is the top seed in Cincinnati and will be aiming to win his first title here. The Serb has some dangerous names in his section – after a first round bye, Djokovic has a second round meeting with either Juan Monaco or Jurgen Melzer and a third round with possibly 15th seeded Gilles Simon or Montreal semi-finalist Vasek Pospisil.

Djokovic’s scheduled quarter-final opponent is the Frenchman Richard Gasquet. But the eighth seeded Frenchman has trouble lined up every step of the way before he can get another shot at the defending champion. American John Isner could await in the second round, and there’s Montreal finalist and the newest member of the world’s top ten, Milos Roanic, in the third round.

After reaching his first final at a Masters Series event, Roanic has taken another step towards claiming his spot in the elite of the game. But after playing six matches in seven days, it would be interesting how he sustains this form and his physical conditioning.

First round matches to watch out for – (12) Roanic vs. Jack Sock; Sam Querrey vs. Janko Tipsarevic

Prediction – Djokovic to beat Isner

Second Quarter:

Djokovic catches a break here as Murray, Nadal and Federer are all in the bottom half of the draw. This quarter has third seeded David Ferrer and seventh seeded Juan Martin del Potro. Ferrer lost his first match in Montreal last week and could be marked out for another early exit as he meets the winner of the Ryan Harrison/Alexandr Dolgopolov match in the second round, and possibly the big-serving Jerzy Janowicz, seeded number 16, in the third round.

After winning in Washington, Potro went down to Roanic in a controversial third round match in Montreal, which means he should be fresher than some of the others for this event. Potro will meet either Benoit Paire or Nikolay Davydenko in the second round and possibly Kei Nishikori, who is aiming to become the first Japanese player to break into the world’s top ten, in the third round. If del Potro is fit, he is the favourite to emerge from this section.

First round matches to watch for – (10) Nishikori vs. Feliciano Lopez; (16) Janowicz vs. James Blake

Prediction – del Potro to beat Janowicz

Rafael Nadal celebrates with the winner’s trophy after defeating Milos Roanic during the final of the Rogers Cup at Uniprix Stadium on August 11, 2013 in Montreal, Canada. (Getty Images)

Third Quarter:

While their projected quarter-final at Wimbledon never happened, Nadal and Federer have been placed in the same section once again. The Spaniard has won both their encounters this year. And when you consider that Nadal has just won the Montreal Masters and Federer is coming back from a back injury with a newish racquet, the Spaniard will be a clear favourite if the two rivals meet once again.

Nadal’s road to the quarters looks pretty smooth with only 13^th seed Nicolas Almagro and Grigor Dimitrov likely to put up some resistance (those two meet in what should be an entertaining first round match).

On the other hand, Federer gets the winner of Phillipp Kohlscreibber and Mardy Fish in the second round and possibly 11^th seed Tommy Haas or in-form South African Kevin Anderson in the third round (Haas and Anderson also meet in the first round).

There will also be some eyes on American Brian Baker, who plays his first ATP level event since January due to knee surgery.

First Round matches to watch for – (11) Haas vs. Anderson; (13) Almagro vs. Dimitrov

Prediction – Nadal to beat Anderson

Fourth Quarter:

After a disappointing show in Montreal, world number two Andy Murray has a chance to redeem himself and rack up some wins and confidence in Cincinnati. The bad news is that he could meet Ernests Gulbis, who knocked him out of Montreal last week, in the second round. Should Murray get past Gulbis this time around, he should be able to beat the charismatic Italian Fabio Fognini, who won 13 matches in a row on clay after Wimbledon to break into the top 20.

Murray’s projected quarter-final draw is the sixth seed Tomas Berdych. The Czech is always dangerous on hard courts and is in a relatively easy section of the draw, with ninth seed Stanislas Wawrinka or Tommmy Robredo lined up in the third round.

First round matches to watch for – (14) Fognini vs Radek Stepanek; Gulbis vs. Mikhail Youzhny

Prediction – Murray to beat Wawrinka

Semi-Final Predictions – The last time Djokovic and del Potro played, they put on one of the best shows this year, before the Argentine ran out of steam in the Wimbledon semis. This is going to be a best-of-three sets, which will favour del Potro. The Argentinean should face Murray in the final, who should get past a tired Nadal in his semi-final.

Finals – Murray to beat del Potro