Australian Open - Suspects, Spoilers and the Supporting Cast

The calm of December has been swept away by the storm in January. The tennis fan is back in the pond to drench herself in the delirium of being awash in an avalanche of tennis activity that ushers in a fresh season. The familiar experience of feeling quenched even as we drown in it is an expression beyond the reach of the mortal word. Adelaide, Auckland, Brisbane, Chennai, Doha and all the way down to Sydney – the action is pouring in from all directions, leaving us sniffing for clues about what might lie ahead when the Australian Open begins in Melbourne in three days time.

A sudden burst of explosive pleasure, the first Grand Slam of the season comes riding to us from the deep outback with an eagerness normally associated with an impatient groom in search of his elusive bride. So it is this season too – even before we could fathom the import of the relentless action this past week, the Grand Slam of the Asia Pacific is busy dressing up for the dance that is to follow.

With the draw out tomorrow, it is time for us to dive in and gaze deep inside the waters of the Yarra to try and figure which star might bring us the most joy and which of them might leave us devastated in pain. After all, we swell immediately with victory and delve for long in defeat – for we are men and women that haven’t walked out of a Robert Frost poem.

Suspects

Will it be a hat-trick for Novak Djokovic? Despite the jet-lagged defeat at the hands of a seemingly sobered down version of Bernard Tomic, the defending champion is yet again the red hot favourite going into the first major event of the tennis calendar. The world No.1 is a daunting competitor and his willingness to remain defiant till the very last moment is proving to be a decisive factor in helping Novak Djokovic keep matches alive even from the most hopeless of situations. One of the big factors in the sustained success of Djokovic has been the ability to attack his opponent’s serve – he built a formidable reputation by winning 43% of the return points through the 2012 season – effectively breaking his opponents once in every three games.

Djokovic needs to be weary about the gap between points – the strict enforcement this year is a direct result of the finals in Melbourne last year that lasted over six hours in part due to the fact that both Nadal and Djokovic were consistently taking 30 – 35 seconds between points. An untimely decision from the chair – server can be docked a fault, returner stands to lose the point – can irk the champion and result in a loss of rhythm and concentration. Besides that, it is difficult to imagine who might upend the Serbian’s march into the semi-finals for a third straight year. The last two matches could be the real contests that determine whether he can clinch his sixth major title, and do justice to his stature as the overwhelming favourite.

Andy Murray has come of age with his exploits last year – finally walking the last mile under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl to claim a memorable Gold Medal in London before going on to clinch the first Grand Slam title of his career. The successes are bound to embolden the multi-skilled Scot, who is second only to Federer in his all court skills. Last year, the Scot had three break points to serve for a spot in the finals, but failed to nail Djokovic. Do not expect anything similar this year from Murray – he has finally discovered the mental edge that Lendl has been urging him to find and it could now be sharp enough to shred opponents in the moments that truly matter. The backhand and return remain his main weapons, but from the little on offer at Brisbane, it appears that the forehand has received some special attention over the holiday break. If Murray is any lesser the favourite compared to Djokovic, it is only because the Serbian is a two time defending champion.

Even at 31, Federer remains in top shape and among the main bunch of contenders. He is certainly more vulnerable than in the past and the ride could get considerably tougher for the Swiss from the quarter-final stages. Federer made remarkable recoveries last year to pull through in five sets – first against Julien Benneteau in Wimbledon and then against Alejandro Falla at the Olympics, but these are the kind of contests that could make Federer vulnerable in the early stages of Grand Slam tournaments during this phase of his career. Every great champion has that ghastly second round nightmare knocking on the door and Federer is due one soon. The fact that he hasn’t played any preparatory event could cut both ways – while he will benefit from the rest, he could also fall victim to the rust. If the Swiss can ward off the evil spirits, his considerable experience in the second week will be his steadfast companion against his formidable competitors. With Rafael Nadal out of the way, a lot could depend on the draw – if Murray and Djokovic end up in the same half, this could be Federer’s best chance to make another finals in Melbourne.

Federer himself picked Djokovic for the title bet - “He’s been the best hard-court player in the world for the last couple of years,” Federer said. “Andy Murray is playing great and only going to get stronger in the next couple of years. Unfortunately Rafa is not going to be there.” Pressed about his reasons for continuing, the former world No. 1 said, “I love the pressure of playing and, with the new generation coming up, I have to work harder to stay at the top with the best,” Federer said. “Everyone has to fade away eventually, but I’m not 89 yet,” before signing off with a chuckle.

And then we have the usual bunch that have been soldiering on, trying in vain to chip away at the fortress built by the big four of tennis. David Ferrer is as consistent as a German engine, but it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to find the extra gear needed at the fag end of a demanding fortnight. As expected, he is busy at the deep end of the tournament in Auckland which means he will reach Melbourne at the last minute. Ferrer is used to the workload, but the weather in Melbourne is a substantial challenge and the heat and humidity could leave him vulnerable as the tournament progresses. Injury-marred Juan Martin Del Potro has to be in the reckoning – the Argentine is fully fit and that brutal forehand of his can cut the finest players in two. His serve is working well and the tower from Tandil moves far better than his frame would normally allow him to. Delpo’s strength is also his Achilles’ heel – the flat forehand is built for precision and with barely any margin, its master often pays the price for the slightest shift in trajectory.

Tomas Berdych is another of those men with the potential to upend the hegemony but lacking in the intensity and purpose needed to complete the mission. He is a menace when he can keep the points short, but for that to happen he will need his serve to be at its full glory, enabling the Czech to amble inside the court and bring his effective volleying skills into play. Even as the next generation is snapping at their heels, Berdych, Ferrer and to a lesser extent Delpo and Murray have limited time to fill their trophy cabinets or run the risk of being counted among an eclipsed generation of players that were most affected by the sustained brilliance of Federer, Nadal and later Djokovic. Let us not leave out Richard Gasquet – world No. 7 in 2007, the Frenchman lost his way before finally mending the script last year. Gasquet is ranked 10th in the world and yet it would surprise many if he were to make a significant run. Such has been his errant path on the high road of professional tennis - Gasquet out duelled Nikolay Davydenko in Qatar to herald his season with the title in Doha and announce his intentions to finally step it up to the next level.

There are a host of promising young men too – Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Bernard Tomic and Alexandr Dolgopolov among them. Japanese Kei Nishikori and American Ryan Harrison have also made significant progress this past year. The Bulgarian Dimitrov is called “Baby Fed” for his all round skills and his flair on the court. He had Murray on the ropes in Brisbane, but his lack of experience cost him dearly as he failed to lock the doors after leading by a break in both the sets. But there was just enough time for the upcoming star to showcase his steady serve and the ability to clip winners off either flank in a manner reminiscent of Federer in his prime.

Raonic is a service machine, reliant too heavily on his serve to see him home – who can forget that match against Juan Monaco in the French Open last year, when the Canadian fought to the bitter end before losing in five sets. The most interesting statistic from that match – Raonic did not break serve even once during the course of it. The booming serve could see the power-horse through to the second week, but the going will get significantly harder from the round of 16 unless he is able to take advantage of the easy hold to pile pressure on his opponents whilst returning it.

After a rather troubled 2012, Tomic has a new girlfriend and it seems a calmer disposition. He has beaten Djokovic in the Hopman Cup and is now through to the semi-finals in Sydney as he inches toward what might turn out to be his first career title. When you count the fact that he has won 17 of his last 19 matches in Australia, there is no doubt that he could do some harm next week and beyond. If the Aussie can rein in his volatile mind and focus on bringing his game to bear, there is no question even in the mind of his harshest critic that the 20-year-old is capable of causing some serious damage.

There is danger lurking too in the form of Lleyton Hewitt and Gael Monfils – two floaters who could inflict some serious damage. Both players are currently ranked at levels that brook no value to their pedigree and these will be two names that will be cause some trepidation when the draw is out on Friday. Hewitt is ranked 82nd, but just to remind everyone of his desire – handed a crushing 6-3, 6-2 defeat to Berdych and reach the AAMI Classic final in Kooyong. Milos Raonic also suffered similar ignominy this week at the hands of the veteran Australian, who would happily trade a limb to go one better than he did in 2005 when he reached the finals in Melbourne.

The acrobatic Monfils is only ranked 77th, but on the evidence of his run in Auckland, the Frenchman could be a disastrous draw for one of the seeded men in the first week at Melbourne. Monfils made the most of a wild card in Auckland, where he is about to take on Ferrer in the semi-finals. Soaring temperatures, sweating players, throw in the early season vulnerabilities into the mix of variables and the first Grand Slam of the year could take off to a blistering start. Buckle up and stay tuned to these pages for some cracking tennis action.