Marin Cilic brings winds of change in men's tennis

Change of guard?

As Marin Cilic was crowned US Open champion for the first time, he may not have been aware of the magnitude of his achievement. For several years, the tennis world has been dominated by “The Big Four” – namely Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. In Grand Slam tournaments, a final involving 2 of these 4 was quite common, sometimes inevitable. The quality of tennis of these 4 players was significantly higher than that of their peers, reaching heights that were apparently unachievable. But with this victory for Cilic, ranked 12 in the world currently, does this signify a change in the tide of men’s tennis?

The Big 4 – Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray

Men’s tennis has seen several outstanding players in the open era; players that will go down in the anals of history. Players like Borg, Lendl, Becker, Edberg, Agassi, and Sampras, to name a few, have all enjoyed periods of dominance at the top. However, even during these periods, there were more Grand Slam winners, perhaps because each surface had different players who called the shots.

Dominance by other players

Let’s take a look at the period between the mid 90s and early 2000s. At this point, on the grass of Wimbledon, there was one man who stood on a different level – Pete Sampras. Only Richard Krajicek could break his winning streak at Wimbledon, and went on to win in ‘96. The clay courts of Roland Garros saw a few different champions, with Sergi Brugera winning a couple, while players like Thomas Muster, Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Carlos Moya winning a title each. Gustavo Kuerten was, for a while, the king of clay, and he won 3 titles at Roland Garros.

The hard courts at the US Open, and Rebound Ace surface saw several different champions, both clay court players as well as grass court players. The feeling is that during this period of time, there were more players fighting for the top spots in the rankings, and more people capable of winning Grand Slam tournaments. Today, it seems there are only a few who you would say are likely to win Grand Slams. Let’s have a look at some statistics to see if this makes sense.

Pre-Wimbledon 2005

Let us consider two periods of time – between 1996 and June 2005, when Nadal won his first French Open, and the period after, till present day. During the period between 1996 and 2005, before June 2005, the number of players who had won Grand Slam tournaments was 19. This is a fairly large number, and shows a large amount of competition. In fact, when Goran Ivanisevic won his only Grand Slam title, he did so as a wild Card. Will we see something like that in today’s game? Maybe not. Let’s not forget that during this period of time, there were still players who were very dominant, such as Pete Sampras, who was world number 1 from 1993 to 1998. In addition to the 19 who won Grand Slam tournaments, there were also several other players who definitely had a good shot at winning one.

Post-Wimbledon 2005

Moving on, we look at the following period, from the point of time Rafael Nadal won at Roland Garros in 2005, till today. During this period the number of Grand Slam champions is 7, with Marin Cilic being the latest addition. That is a significant drop from the period before. In fact, till the Australian Open in 2014, when Stanislas Wawrinka was crowned champion, the only player to have won a Grand Slam during this period who was not a part of “The Big Four”, was Juan Martin del Potro, who won the US Open in 2009. This clearly shows that the competition for Grand Slam tournaments is extremely intense at the top, but without too many contenders.

End of the Big 4?

So what does all this mean? Has the quality of tennis dropped? Certaintly not. In fact, some of the tennis played today is of an unbelievably high standard, with players pulling out all kinds of shots. What it does mean, is that there is a gulf between the men at the top and the rest; or at least there has been till the beginning of 2014.

But with the wins of Wawrinka and Cilic this year, one can’t help but get the feeling that something has changed. Moreover, what was particularly notable about the recently concluded US Open final was that it was contested between the 14th seed, Marin Cilic, and the 10th seed, Kei Nishikori, both outside the top 10 in the rankings. This was the first final since the 2005 Australian Open which did not feature any of “The Big Four”; a significant achievement. But does this signify a new era in tennis? Are the 4 kingpins slowly being removed from their throne?

It is probably too early to jump to any conclusions on this matter, as each of the 4 still look likely to win more trophies. But with the onset of new players, who have what it takes to win big matches on big stages, there are interesting times ahead for the tennis world.