Italian Open 2022: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final

Rafael Nadal made it to the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open following his return from an injury layoff. In his first tournament on clay this season, he made a winning start by defeating Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets. He had to save four match points in the round of 16 against David Goffin, but eventually won in three sets.

Nadal then lost to his compatriot Carlos Alcaraz in three sets. The Spaniard now heads to the Italian Open, where he's the defending champion. Seeded third in the tournament, he's seeking a record-breaking 11th title at the Foro Italico. On that note, let’s take a closer look at Nadal's projected path to the final of the Italian Open.

Rafael Nadal's likely 2nd-round opponent - John Isner

Big-serving John Isner has won just one of his eight encounters against Nadal. His solitary victory came at the 2017 Laver Cup. This will be their first meeting since 2017. The Spaniard has won all four of their matches on clay.

Isner did push Nadal to five sets at the 2011 French Open, but came up just short. Even if the American plays at his best level, the former World No. 1 will likely find a way past him once again.

Rafael Nadal's likely 3rd-round opponent - Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov provided a stern test when they met in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year. However, the Canadian has suffered a bunch of early losses over the past two months, failing to win consecutive matches since the Indian Wells Open in March.

Should Shapovalov falter in the early stages, Nadal could find himself up against Dan Evans instead. Neither player is likely to trouble the Spaniard in their current form.

Rafael Nadal's likely quarter-final opponent - Casper Ruud or Hubert Hurkacz

If the seeds hold, Casper Ruud would be Nadal's opponent in the quarterfinals. The Norwegian hasn't been at his best since reaching the final in Miami. Even if he does make the quarterfinals in Rome, it is unlikely he'll be able to trouble Nadal.

Hubert Hurkacz, on the other hand, has been playing extremely well of late. He made the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo and Madrid. Nadal hasn't faced off against the Pole yet, so it could be an intriguing contest. The 35-year-old is likely to get past his younger opponent, but he'll need to be at his best.

Rafael Nadal's likely semi-final opponent - Novak Djokovic

Nadal's old foe Novak Djokovic will likely await him in the semifinals. They've squared off nine times at the Italian Open over the years, with the Spaniard winning on six occasions.

Djokovic has found his form after a slow start to the clay season and is getting better with every match. Nadal will have his task cut out for him if he wants to get the better of his archrival.

Rafael Nadal's likely opponent in the final - Carlos Alcaraz

Teen sensation Carlos Alcaraz scored his first win over Nadal at the Madrid Open. The youngster has played incredibly well this year and seems primed to make yet another deep run in Rome. After what went down in Madrid, it's anyone's guess which way their next meeting will go.

Should Alcaraz not make it to the final, Nadal could face either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Alexander Zverev for the title. Both players have had good results on clay, with the Greek winning the Monte-Carlo Masters and Zverev making the final in Madrid. The duo have beaten the Spaniard on clay and have the potential to stop Nadal from winning a record 11th title at the Italian Open.