Western Conference Finals: Should Spurs be worried?

Tim Duncan #21 and Tony Parker #9 of the San Antonio Spurs talk during a break in the game against the Memphis Grizzlies in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals during the 2013 NBA Playoffs on May 21, 2013 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Getty Images)

2-0 up in the Western Conference Finals and that probably puts the San Antonio Spurs in the driver’s seat and in total control of the series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Tony Parker is playing his heart out and in his last game managed to rake in a career play-off high of 18 assists. Yes, there is some controversy regarding the obnoxious death threats and also concern about his recent calf injury, but the Spurs, and especially Gregg Popovich, can take a lot of heart from the displays of the 30-year old guard.

Tim Duncan is turning ‘Father Time’ on its toes and continues to amaze the whole basketball fraternity with his amazing drive and desire for the game. Kwahi Leonard looks like a future All-Star providing the rare Spurs highlight moments with his athletic ability and transition plays. Danny Green is suddenly one of the best spot-up shooters in the game and has shown a far greater dedication and effort on the defensive end of the floor. Popovich has been masterful in managing the minutes, and the Spurs have executed their precision game-model to great effect. The ball is moving from side-to-side, the floor is spaced out, the screens and movement off the ball is almost perfect; their defence is even better. And most importantly they are winning.

If I were to judge the Spurs now, I would just stamp a huge A on the report-card and rave about their greatness and the utter simplicity of the basketball spectacle they have showcased. However, this isn’t the time to rave about such things. It is still not time to judge the Spurs yet, simply because the season is still not over. It is time when the Spurs need to salvage whatever has been working for them, work on the things that hasn’t and just do everything necessary to get Duncan and Popovich their fifth ring.

And this is where it gets slightly tricky for the Spurs. Nobody can argue against their pedigree and basketball intelligence. However, one also needs to take into account that the Spurs have actually had the easier run into the Conference Finals.

In the first round they matched up against an injury-ravaged Los Angeles Lakers team, still trying to figure out a way to play the game and adjusting the pieces around the maverick run-and-gun strategies of Mike D’Antoni, the needy Dwight Howard and the talented yet submissive Pau Gasol. Most importantly it was a team without Kobe Bryant. Could Bryant have led the Lakers to an upset win? I’m too big a Bryant fan to answer that question, but the fact that the biggest problems for the Spurs were actually caused by Steve Blake and the D-League Renaissance man, Andre Goudelock, speaks volumes about how easy it was for the Spurs.

Against the Golden State Warriors it did get a bit tricky, with Stephen Curry shooting the lights out and with role-players like Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson making their mark. And it is this series that actually exposed some chinks in the otherwise too-perfect-to-be-true San Antonio Spurs basketball performances.

The San Antonio Spurs celebrate while playing the Memphis Grizzlies in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals during the 2013 NBA Playoffs on May 21, 2013 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Getty Images)

The Spurs maybe are the best team in the league when it comes to moving the ball and spreading the floor. They can afford to do so because they have three shooters who manage to score at an average of over 40% from beyond the arc (Leonard, Green and Matt Bonner). However, it is a long known fact that if you choose to live by the three you also end up dying by that. The Spurs have actually been a victim of the same, because many a time in close encounters and clutch moments the spot-up shooters of the Spurs have failed to produce the efficient shooting that has pumped up their 3-point stats. The Spurs in the play-offs average around 23 three-point shots out of a gross average of 90 field goal attempts. The disturbing fact is that beyond Game-1 when Parker made some clutch corner three’s, the Spurs have mostly failed to deliver beyond the arc in the clutch moments.

The problem may have been accentuated slightly due to the much-maligned play-off performances of Manu Ginobili, who in many NBA circles is decorated as one of the best play-off clutch scorers in the league. Ginobili however hasn’t been the same player who was a prominent clutch go-to-guy for the Championship winning Spurs team of the last decade. He hasn’t shot the ball well enough, averaging a career low in points/game at 11.3 ppg, while shooting only 38.3% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Worse still he hasn’t been himself on the charity stripe either, averaging a shoddy 66.7% from the line. The Spurs have managed to do enough to get the job done without Ginobili being at his belligerent best, but can the Spurs win a Championship with a Ginobili who averages only 67% from the free-throw line? Can they manage to win with their most clutch player giving up the ball in the vital moments of the game? Can they rely on their prodigious yet unseasoned duo of Leonard and Green to shoot the clutch threes, when Ginobili decides to share the ball rather than be himself and create his own offense? No, No and NO!

So should the Spurs be worried about Manu not being the player that was the lynch-pin of all successful Spurs play-off campaigns in the last decade? Yes.

My second argument would be on the rebounding and shot-blocking of the Spurs. Tim Duncan is amongst the best rebounder’s and paint anchors to have ever played the game. He just understands and reads the game better than anybody else; one of the major reasons why he was able to contest the imposing duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the first two games of the Conference Finals. However, the worrying fact is that beyond Duncan the second best rebounder for the Spurs team is Leonard, who is averaging around 8 rebounds per game in the play-offs. Exceptional numbers from a player who just stands 6’7”, but comparing the same to the combined rebounding numbers of Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter gives a very disillusioning picture. The two big-men combined average around 5.2 rebounds over an average of 40 minutes of play-off basketball. Maybe Diaw does his role well with his ability to stretch the floor, and Splitter with his ability to play the screen and roll, but the rebounding numbers from the duo are just way too less to be deemed satisfactory. The Grizzlies did exploit the same in Game 2, wining the rebounding battle 60-48, and earning several vital second-chance opportunities. They may have failed to make the most out of it, but this is one deficiency that may hurt the Spurs dear in the next few games.

On the topic of rim-protection and shot-blocking the Spurs lack any legitimate shot-blocker beyond Duncan, who doesn’t have the same pop in his legs, but at 1.5 blocks per game is still a force to reckon with. The Spurs certainly do a great job with their defensive rotations and are great with their help-defence, but the same can be easily disrupted by a good three-point shooting team. Any good three-point shooting team can stretch and space the floor, leaving the paint anchoring and rim protection solely dependent on the bigs’. This is where the Spurs can be hurt on the defensive end of the floor. When Duncan isn’t on the court, the opposition can try and go to a small line-up with two spot-up shooters. The result is that now the Spurs are vulnerable to dribble penetration and specially with Parker not being the best perimeter defender and Splitter and Diaw being incapable of affecting or blocking many shots, the Spurs can be scored on easily inside. The rotation can’t be too aggressive because the wing defenders need to keep the shooters under check. This philosophy was adapted admirably by the Warriors, who allowed Jarrett Jack to try and take on Parker with Leonard and Green busy trying to keep Curry and Thompson off the ball. Jack torched and tortured Parker and scored at will against the rim-protection offered by the Spurs sans Duncan.

The Grizzlies maybe lack the perimeter shooting to bother the Spurs, but if the Spurs do make it through the Conference Finals, there is a great possibility that they may be faced up against the Miami Heat team boasting of a shooting arsenal of Ray Allen, Shaun Battier, Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers. The dribble penetration then will be executed by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Scary, isn’t it?

Head Coach Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs speaks in a huddle with his players while facing the Memphis Grizzlies in Game One of the Western Conference Finals during the 2013 NBA Playoffs on May 19, 2013 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Getty Images)

So should the Spurs be worried about the inactivity and lack of depth inside? Yes.

There are also other issues that may be bothering Popovich, specially the ineffectiveness of Gary Neal, the health and the durability of Duncan and Parker etc. However, in my mind the above stated reasons should actually ride very high on the list of worries for Gregg Popovich.

The Spurs team does look destined for greatness, but it has to be earned because it certainly isn’t owed to anyone and the Grizzlies are no easy team to swat away. The series may actually just evolve in the next two games at Memphis, a place where the Grizzlies are unbeaten in the post-season.

Should the Spurs be concerned now? Yes.