NZ vs SL: 3 reasons why Sri Lanka can upset New Zealand in Test series

Sri Lanka is battling it out against New Zealand in the first fixture of a two-match Test series at the Hagley Oval in Christchurch and find themselves in a dominating position at the end of Day 1. They remained strong at 305/6 in 75 overs, with Dhananjaya de Silva and Kasun Rajitha at the crease.

Kusal Mendis top-scored with a free-flowing 83-ball 87 as they took the attack to a very expensive and somewhat toothless Kiwi attack, with Tim Southee and Matt Henry the only bowlers with a semblance of control over the match.

Sri Lanka are third in the WTC points table and it looks likelier that they might, against all odds, qualify for the WTC final if India doesn't win the ongoing fourth Test against Australia.

Here are three reasons why Sri Lanka can stun New Zealand in this series.

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#1 New Zealand has had trouble combating opponents showing intent with the bat

The Black Caps couldn't handle the pace and intensity of the 'Bazball' style of Test cricket as they almost lost 2-0 to a touring England side

Put simply, they have more often than not been blown away by Bazball. New Zealand was the first real victim of England's ultra-positive style of cricket championed by one of the Black Caps' greats, Brendon Mccullum. In their first time returning to England after winning the WTC Final in June 2022, England went all guns blazing against the Black Caps, and secured a 3-0 clean sweep.

Last month, they came extremely close to another whitewash by England on their home turf, especially in the absence of Boult, which seemed powerless to repel the advances of someone like Harry Brook. While an inspired Neil Wagner and a short-ball plan helped them win an absolute cracker of a Test match, they still remain extremely vulnerable to attacking cricket from their opponents.

Sri Lanka has done their homework and came out playing their shots quite freely, led by their No.3 Kusal Mendis. To finish the end of the day's play at 305/6, scoring at a run rate of more than 4 RPO is something the visiting side would've taken any day of the week. They'll want to continue showing good intent with the bat and give themselves a chance to win this Test match.

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#2 New Zealand hasn't been in form in Test cricket for quite a while now

Since winning the inaugural WTC final against India in Southampton in 2021, the New Zealand Test side has absolutely fallen off a cliff. They're second from bottom in the WTC points table, with only two wins and six defeats in eleven matches, and that's despite more than half of those matches coming at home.

Kane Williamson's return from a massive injury layoff didn't produce the performances that neither he nor the team wanted, across formats. He handed over the reins of the Test side to Southee, who has to bowl without his new ball partner Boult.

There's a lot going wrong for this side who have very little to play for. Up against a spirited Sri Lankan side who have the chance to defy the odds and set up a date with Australia in the WTC final, they'll have their task cutout.

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#3 Sri Lanka is a much-improved side than they were a couple of years ago

Dinesh Chandimal scored a memorable double-hundred to help Sri Lanka beat Australia in what was a much-needed pick-me-up for the entire nation.

After a golden generation of Sri Lankan cricket all pretty much retired eight-nine years ago, the national side saw quite a dip, but it seems to be on the way back up with a new set of talents emerging. Under Dimuth Karunaratne, Sri Lanka is managing to slowly make opponents take them seriously and it shows in their performances and stats.

They're genuinely in the running to make the WTC final and you don't do that if you don't win Test matches, and Sri Lanka has. Since the start of the new WTC cycle, they have won five out of the 10 matches they've played, which includes victories against Australia and Pakistan. In comparison, they only had three wins in 14 matches in the previous WTC cycle.

Clearly, this is a better cricketing side in Test cricket, let alone in other formats, and they could really attack at this vulnerable point they're at.