'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,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'%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
Winning a football match not only requires effort, but luck as well. Throughout the decades, many epic moments on the football pitch have been influenced by one side's gift of good fortune.
There is no definite way to say when a football team deserved to win the match. The usual metrics used are to check gameplay stats, but those are not always accurate. Modern football has evolved in playstyle, and things like possession or passes have become redundant to an extent.
The most important measurement is the attempts of a team to score goals to win. But shots are not the only proper metric and expected points are a better one at judging how good a team has been.
The next five clubs have had the maximum difference between their expected points per match and the actual points they have earned per game. In a certain sense, these teams have been lucky and have earned more points than what their performances deserved.
Disclaimer: Considered for matches until 05/01/2022 and for league fixtures only.
#5 Montpellier SC : +0.45
French club Montpellier SC had a golden run when they managed to win the Ligue 1 title in the 2011-12 season. Since then, the club have struggled to hit past highs.
Montpellier have been clinical and offensive, which has propelled them to sixth position in the Ligue 1 table this season. They're in contention for a European spot courtesy of their goal-scoring antiques. However, Montpellier has definitely earned more points than what their performances say about them so far.
Stephy Mavididi has been the top scorer for the side this season with eight goals. However, Teji Savanier has been the standout performer as the midfielder has been instrumental in the side's success. He has assisted six and scored five goals, including a brilliant free-kick.
Montpellier average 1.63 points per match against an expected point of 1.18 per match.
#4 Sevilla FC : +0.50
Sevilla have been one of the most consistent sides in La Liga, who are traditionally known for their attacking brand of football. They haven't had the domestic success they wanted, but they have been extremely successful in the Europa League. They have won the competition six times since 2006.
Sevilla have been a consistent side under Julen Lopetegui and their brand of football in recent times has been quite attractive to watch. They are second in the table and are just four points behind league leaders Real Madrid.
Sevilla's main goal-scoring has come from striker Rafa Mir this season, who has scored six goals across all competitions. Lucas Ocampos has been the main lynchpin, raking in the top five for goals and assists. Full-backs Marcos Acuna and Gonzalo Montiel have been influential as well.
In reality, Sevilla has an expected point of 1.66 points per match but has obtained 2.16 points per match.
#3 Eintracht Frankfurt : +0.51
Eintracht Frankfurt hasn't performed too well in the current season. The German club may be present in the top 10 at the time of writing, but performances haven't been as expected.
However, just three points separate them from the European places, and a bright run of form will see them with an outside chance of qualification. Frankfurt have managed together more points than their performances perhaps deserve despite the league position. T
hey have managed to earn 1.59 points per game, while the expected points per game have been just 1.08.
The defense has been a cause of the problem for the club, while the attacking returns for the side have been decent. Filip Kostic is the best player in the club with seven assists and three goals in the campaign so far. Forward Rafael Santos Borre has complimented well, with six goals and five assists. However, Frankfurt will aim to improve things at the back to help them raise the table.
#2 AC Milan - +0.71
After years of underwhelming performances, AC Milan has found redemption under manager Stefano Pioli in recent times. The club is yet to win a Serie A title for over a decade now, but there have been signs of improvement in recent years.
AC Milan mounted a title challenge last season but fell short. They are in the third position on the table for the time being with the same points as second-placed Napoli.
While AC Milan's performances have been good, they have certainly achieved more points than they deserved. They have achieved 2.21 points against an expected 1.50 points per game.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has shown no signs of slowing down with 10 goals involvement so far across all major competitions. Rafael Leao has supported him in the attack, while Theo Hernandez has been a revelation. It remains to be seen if AC Milan can consolidate their position to lead the title charge.
#1 PSG - +0.77
Paris Saint-Germain have one of the strongest squads on paper, if not the strongest. The Parisienne club boast Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar, arguably the best front three in the world.
The major difference between achieved and expected points could be the players. Great players often shoot once and can make the difference. But PSG haven't been at their potential best, and there are significant areas for improvement. The club have achieved 2.42 points against an expected 1.65 points per game.
Messi might be the new addition to their arsenal, but the Argentine has yet to score as usual, scoring just once in the league. Instead, French superstar Mbappe has led the side from the front, scoring 19 goals and assisting 16 in 28 games in all competitions.
Incidentally, PSG have a huge lead (11 points) at the top of the table, and it's almost certain that they will win the league once again. However, it remains to be seen if the French club can muster up a challenge for the UEFA Champions League.
