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Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) will take on Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tonight. The Parisians will travel to the Allianz Arena in the hopes of overturning a 1-0 deficit.
PSG were outplayed at the Parc des Princes but there was not much to choose between the two sides at the end of the night as far as the scoreline was concerned. Kingsley Coman's 53rd-minute strike gave Bayern Munich a valuable one-goal lead to carry to the second leg.
As PSG prepare to square off against the Bavarians in the second leg of this Round of 16 tie, Christophe Galtier's job hangs in the balance. A triumphant run in the Champions League is viewed as necessary among PSG's top brass and Galtier's men have a mountain to climb tonight.
Without further ado, let's take a look at five reasons why PSG will lose to Bayern Munich tonight despite having Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe.
#5 Bayern Munich's impeccable home record
The odds are in Bayern Munich's favor as they prepare to welcome PSG to the Allianz Arena. The Bavarians have failed to progress just twice on 22 previous occasions where they've managed to win the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie.
Bayern Munich are a powerhouse on their own turf. They are unbeaten in 23 successive competitive matches at home. Their last loss in a competitive game at home came all the way back in January 2022. Bayern have also won 15 of their past 17 home games in the UEFA Champions League.
#4 PSG have looked vulnerable in their recent matches
Paris Saint-Germain were steamrollering opponents in the first half of the season. The trio of Messi, Mbappe and Neymar were firing on all cylinders, and Galtier's side showcased wonderful free-scrubbing form. But they seem to have lost some of that momentum since the World Cup break.
Paris Saint-Germain have lost five of their past 14 matches in all competitions in 2023. They only lost four games in the entirety of 2022. The Parisians' record away from home is also rather suspect, having lost four of their eight competitive away games in 2023.
In their past six matches across all competitions, PSG have scored and shipped in 13 goals each.
#3 PSG are without Neymar
Neymar has been ruled out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. It is a huge blow for Paris Saint-Germain. While the Brazilian hasn't been at his best since the 2022 FIFA World Cup, he has a knack for coming up clutch in high-profile affairs like these.
Without Neymar in the lineup, Galtier will need to shuffle his pack and alter his tactics. He will use a three-man defense to mirror Bayern's setup. Galtier is likely to deploy Messi and Mbappe in the frontline and will hope that they don't get starved of service tonight.
#2 Bayern Munich midfield way more dominant and creative than PSG
One of the main reasons why Bayern Munich were able to take the game to Paris Saint-Germain at the Parc des Princes was their dominance in midfield. Galtier started with a midfield of Warren Zaire-Emery, Danilo Pereira and Marco Verratti.
Bayern Munich, on the other hand, had Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich bossing it in midfield. Although the young Zaire-Emery is unlikely to start tonight and Pereira is more likely to slot into the three-man defense in the absence of Presnel Kimpembe, Paris Saint-Germain are likely to struggle in midfield.
Fabian Ruiz and Vitinha are expected to start in midfield alongside Verratti and they will do well to not get overrun at the center of the pitch.
#1 PSG overreliant on Messi and Mbappe for goals
In the first leg defeat against Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain failed to create much of note until Mbappe was introduced in the 75th minute. A fresh Mbappe was too much to handle for Bayern's tired legs but Paris Saint-Germain still couldn't get the goal they needed.
Bayern Munich will be wary of Mbappe's threat and will be prepared to keep him at bay. They will also look to isolate Messi as the Argentinian legend has been Paris Saint-Germain's creator-in-chief.
If Bayern can handle Messi and Mbappe, half their job is done. With Neymar ruled out, PSG don't have any other reliable goalscoring outlets and that could prove to be a huge problem for them tonight.
