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Over the last decade, Novak Djokovic has entered most non-clay Grand Slams as the favorite for the title. And his historic Roland Garros triumph last week has made it even clearer that it is stupid to bet against Djokovic at any tournament.
That particularly holds true at Wimbledon, given that most of the Next Gen are yet to find their footing on grass. In addition, Rafael Nadal has withdrawn and Roger Federer is in poor form, thus making the odds even more lopsided.
Many experts are claiming that Novak Djokovic is the overwhelming favorite to lift his sixth Wimbledon trophy this year. And given the Serb's record at SW19 in recent times - he has won four of the last six titles there - it would take a brave person to bet against him.
That said, Novak Djokovic's title runs at this year's Australian Open and French Open have been far from cakewalks. At Melbourne, the World No. 1 endured a difficult couple of sets against Frances Tiafoe before almost losing his way against Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev.
At Roland Garros, the young Lorenzo Musetti was two sets up against No ak Djokovic, while Matteo Berrettini gave him a tough fight as well. It took a superhuman effort on the Serb's part to down King of Clay Rafael Nadal in the semis, before he came from two sets down again to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
These matches indicate that while Novak Djokovic is the man to beat at SW19, he could still face a few problems en route to the title. On that note, here's a look at five players who could make life a little difficult for Djokovic at Wimbledon this year:
#5 Roger Federer has the skills to trouble Novak Djokovic on grass, but his form remains a big question
Roger Federer is one of the two the most skilled and accomplished grasscourters on tour (along with Novak Djokovic) right now.
Federer enters Wimbledon one month shy of his 40th birthday, and on the back of a disappointing Halle campaign where he lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round. Moreover, the Swiss has a poor record against Novak Djokovic at Slams (trails 6-11 in the head-to-head) and even worse at Wimbledon, where he has lost to the World No. 1 in three finals.
Roger Federer's game is still quite rusty in the wake of his double knee surgery, especially on the return. The 39-year-old managed to win only a handful of points in his return games against Ilya Ivashka and Felix Auger-Aliassime at Halle. Moreover, given his fitness concerns, it is unlikely he will be able to outlast someone like Novak Djokovic in the best-of-five format.
But the fact remains that on pure skill alone, Federer has the game to give the Serb a few headaches on the grasscourts of Wimbledon.
Given their respective rankings, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer cannot face each other at SW19 before the quarterfinal stage. The Swiss would likely be a dangerous foe for any player in the second week, but will he be able to get to the second week at all? That remains to be seen.
#4 Next Gen are known to struggle on grass, but Stefanos Tsitsipas could make things interesting this year
Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem theoretically have the game to do damage on grass. But their results so far have left a lot to be desired; none of the four has ever made it to the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
Tsitsipas and Zverev have shown improvement on hardcourt and clay over the last one year, but is either of them ready to beat Novak Djokovic in a best-of-five match, let alone on grass? The answer seems to be a resounding no at the moment.
Having said that, both players have the tools to take a set or even two off the World No. 1 at Wimbledon. Given Stefanos Tsitsipas' recent form and improvement in his return game, he seems to be the best bet to take the next step on grass.
Dominic Thiem, meanwhile, has a title on grass unlike the rest of the three (Stuttgart 2016), and has even beaten Roger Federer on the surface (that same event). But the Austrian has been woefully short on confidence in recent months, which has significantly affected his game.
Thiem failed to make a mark even on clay, which is by far his strongest surface, so it is extremely unlikely he will be able to do much on grass.
#3 Novak Djokovic himself
Yes, you read that right. Factoring in all the circumstances, it might not be a stretch to suggest that Novak Djokovic will be one of the biggest threats to his own title chances at Wimbledon this year.
Djokovic knows he is the favorite at Wimbledon by some distance, and he will also be under pressure to win Slam No. 20 and thus equal the all-time record. The Serb has proven to be borderline superhuman in the past, but could he finally crumble under the weight of expectations this time?
Novak Djokovic merely goes through the motions on the court at times, and he rarely brings out his best tennis until the business end of a tournament. His performance in the first two sets against Lorenzo Musetti at Roland Garros is a fine example of that; the Serb struggled massively against the teenager before turning things around when things got desperate.
Novak Djokovic can also, on occasion, let his temper get the better of him. The infamous linesperson incident at the 2020 US Open is still fresh in everyone's mind.
If Djokovic experiences such emotional upheavals in the first week, he could possibly be given a tough time by a decent opponent.
#2 A big server like John Isner, Marin Cilic or Sam Querrey
John Isner, Marin Cilic and Sam Querrey are not at their peak anymore, but their grasscourt game is still pretty effective - thanks largely to their gargantuan serve.
Novak Djokovic has certainly been troubled by big servers in the past at Wimbledon. Tomas Berdych (2010), Juan Martin del Potro (2013), Marin Cilic (2014), Kevin Anderson (2015) and Sam Querrey (2016) have all given the Serb a tough time with their firepower.
Djokovic's game is incredibly solid and well-rounded, and you need more than just a big serve to get past him. But if the 34-year-old has an off-day while facing a John Isner or Marin Cilic in the early rounds, who's to say the giants can't upset the giant of men's tennis?
#1 Matteo Berrettini
As things stand, Matteo Berrettini seems like the player best-equipped to challenge Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.
The Italian gave Djokovic a fair bit of trouble when the two locked horns at Roland Garros last month. And given how Berrettini has begun his grasscourt campaign strongly by winning the Queen's title, it wouldn't be a stretch to call him the second favorite for the title at SW19 this year.
Matteo Berrettini has two career titles on grass - Queen's this week, and Stuttgart in 2019. The 25-year-old certainly has the game to make good use of a quick surface like grass.
Berrettini is blessed with a colossal first serve that can rival that of the best in the business. Moreover, the Italian is very efficient on the serve + 1, using his missile-like forehand to crunch winners at will.
Berrettini has greatly improved his net play too; he is an adept volleyer now. And in the longer rallies, the Italian can push his opponents out of position with either his heavy topspin forehand or his biting backhand slice.
Berrettini also showed marked improvement in his return game at Queen's, which bodes well for his Wimbledon chances. That said, the 25-year-old still needs to work on his chip-and-charge technique and his backhand drive if he wishes to upset Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.
In conclusion, there are very few players who can defeat or even trouble Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon this year. Sure, a few could maybe take a set or two, but beating the Serb in the longest format is far easier said than done.
Over the last few months Novak Djokovic has proven that he can overcome any injury, any scoreline and any opponent when he really wants the win. And given how strongly he wants to break the all-time Slam record, we can expect him to go all out at Wimbledon and ensure that he finally draws level with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal at the top of the charts.
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