How Novak Djokovic can reclaim the No. 1 ranking from Daniil Medvedev in March

Novak Djokovic will relinquish his position atop the ATP rankings for the first time since February 2020 on Monday. The Serb suffered a shock defeat against Jiri Vesely in the quarterfinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships, while Daniil Medvedev progressed to the semifinals at the Mexican Open to help facilitate the swap.

But Djokovic could return to the World No. 1 spot as early as next month, provided certain things turn out in his favor. As of now, the 20-time Grand Slam champion and the Russian have 8,875 and 8,435 ranking points respectively.

Once the rankings are updated next week, Medvedev will have 8615 points to his name and the 34-year-old Serb will have 8,465 points, amounting to a 150-point difference.

Djokovic will not drop any points in March, while Medvedev is slated to drop 250 points from his 2021 Open 13 Provence title win on 14 March. Interestingly, those 250 points helped him leapfrog Rafael Nadal to become the World No. 2 for the first time ever.

However, the Indian Wells Masters is scheduled to take place from March 10 to 20. As per ATP policy, rankings will not be updated in the middle of ATP 1000 events (or any two-week tournament, such as Grand Slams).

This means that even though Daniil Medvedev's total will slip to 8,215 points, it will not be reflected in the rankings until the week of 21 March.

Both Djokovic and Medvedev are on the entry list for the Indian Wells tournament, but it is still unclear whether the Serb will be allowed to play because of vaccination mandates in the US.

If he does not compete, a quarterfinal run will be enough for Medvedev to hold on to the No. 1 spot as it will give him 180 ranking points.

In short, the Russian is guaranteed at least three weeks as the World No. 1 following which everything is up in the air.

If Novak Djokovic cannot play in Indian Wells, he will likely have to skip the Miami Masters as well

Novak Djokovic may have to skip the Miami Masters as well if he cannot play at the Indian Wells Masters

The tournament immediately after the Indian Wells Masters is the Miami Masters (March 23 to April 3), with the two forming the Sunshine double. If Novak Djokovic is forced to skip Indian Wells, he will likely have to forego the trip to Miami as well.

Daniil Medvedev has 90 points to defend in Miami as a result of reaching the quarterfinals in 2021. The Serb, meanwhile, is defending 45 points from his fourth-round result in 2019. Interestingly, both players lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in the respective editions.