Monte Carlo Masters 2021: Forecast and predictions

The Rolex Monte Carlo Masters makes a return to the circuit this week, after a gap of two years. Widely considered to be one of the most scenic events on the tour, the Monte Carlo Masters was canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19. While the infection remains a concern even today, the first big event on clay in 2021 is going ahead as scheduled.

This year Monte Carlo features its 11-time champion Rafael Nadal and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, both of whom last played at the Australian Open. With Dominic Thiem missing, the top two seeds from Miami - Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas - occupy the second and fourth seeds respectively. And with Roger Federer still out of action, it is Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini who complete the top 8.

Just like Dubai and Miami, we are carrying out a tournament forecast for Monte Carlo using Elo ratings sourced from Tennis Abstract. But before that, here's a look at the Elo ratings for the players missing in the original table.

Elo Ratings for players missing in the original list

Using the same formula as in Miami, and considering their most recent matches on clay (instead of those on hardcourts for Miami), we arrive at the following Elo ratings for the missing players:

1. Gael Monfils: 1376 (through matches vs Dominik Koepfer in Rome, Yannick Hanfmann in Hamburg and Alexander Bublik in Roland Garros, all in 2020)
2. Guido Pella: 1271 (though matches vs Salvatore Caruso and Pablo Carreno Busta at Roland Garros in 2020, and Egor Gerasimov at Cagliari in 2021)
3. Lucas Pouille: 1385 (through match vs Ricardas Berankis in Marbella)
4. Lucas Catarina: 1200 (general base rating for players competing in Challengers)
5. All qualifiers: 1600 (assuming they started qualifying at 1500 and gained 100 Elo points with two wins)

Forecast for Monte Carlo Masters top half

Monte Carlo Draw: Forecast for Top Half

1st Quarter

Novak Djokovic

World No. 1 and top seed Novak Djokovic headlines the first quarter of the draw. While the numbers indicate he is a clear favorite to make the semis, certain names in his draw could raise a question or two.

Djokovic might have to go through Miami runner-up Jannik Sinner, Miami champion Hubert Hurkacz and the man with the third highest Elo for Monte Carlo, Alexander Zverev, just to make the final four.

The favorites from the first quarter to make the semis are:

1. (1) Novak Djokovic: 64.48%
2. (5) Alexander Zverev: 21.64%
3. Jannik Sinner: 3.43%
4. Marin Cilic: 2.69%

Author's pick: Alexander Zverev

2nd Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Ranked fifth and seeded fourth, Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the pack from the second quarter.

Tsitsipas could potentially face the other three toughest names in his section of the draw on his way to the semis. But Aslan Karatsev, Cristian Garin and Matteo Berrettini present a relatively easier challenge than Djokovic's challengers, at least theoretically.

The favorites from the second quarter to make the semis are:

1. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 42.38%
2. (8) Matteo Berrettini: 29.80%
3. (16) Cristian Garin: 9.03%
4. Pablo Andujar: 5.49%

Author's pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Forecast for Monte Carlo Masters bottom half

Monte Carlo Draw: Forecast for Bottom Half

3rd Quarter

Rafael Nadal

The third quarter of the draw features its greatest conqueror; Rafael Nadal enters Monte Carlo as the third seed. Nadal is currently 28th in the race to Turin, but if the entire clay swing gets played this year, few would bet against him overtaking at least 20 people by the end of it.

The tournament's 11-time champion has been nearly invincible on clay for most of his career, and especially at Roland Garros. That said, Nadal has displayed vulnerability in the best-of-three format over the last two clay seasons.

Regardless, the Spaniard is the overwhelming favorite to make the semis from this section. His probable path involves going through Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov and Andrey Rublev.

The favorites from the third quarter to make the semis are:

1. (3) Rafael Nadal: 69.8%
2. (6) Andrey Rublev: 21.34%
3. (14) Grigor Dimitrov: 2.04%
4. (9) Roberto Bautista Agut: 1.97%

Author's pick: Rafael Nadal

4th Quarter

Diego Schwartzman

In stark contrast to the other sections of the draw, the fourth quarter doesn't feature a clear favorite. While World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is the highest-seeded player from this quarter, it is seventh-seeded Diego Schwartzman who tops the Elo table.

Medvedev did defeat Novak Djokovic at this very tournament in 2019, but his general struggles on clay mean that that victory was anomalous instead of expected. Schwartzman, on the other hand, rode high on the dirt last year, defeating Rafael Nadal at Rome and Dominic Thiem at Roland Garros.

But the Argentine will have his task cut out in Monte Carlo, as the fourth quarter features six 1800+ rated players apart from him - including the defending champion Fabio Fognini. Schwartzman will likely have to go through Casper Ruud, Pablo Carreno Busta and Daniil Medvedev in order to make the semis.

The favorites from the fourth quarter to make the semis are:

1. (7) Diego Schwartzman: 28.44%
2. (2) Daniil Medvedev: 18.54%
3. (12) Pablo Carreno Busta: 9.98%
4. Filip Krajinovic: 9.62%

Author's pick: Diego Schwartzman

Monte Carlo Masters semifinals and finals forecast

From the top half, the most favored forecasted finalists are:

1. (1) Novak Djokovic: 52.43%
2. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 15.99%
3. (5) Alexander Zverev: 13.40%
4. (8) Matteo Berrettini: 8.22%

Author's pick: Alexander Zverev

From the bottom half, the most favored forecasted finalists are:

1. (3) Rafael Nadal: 58.87%
2. (6) Andrey Rublev: 13.44%
3. (7) Diego Schwartzman: 8.86%
4. (2) Daniil Medvedev: 4.56%

Author's pick: Diego Schwartzman

The most favored forecasted champions for Monte Carlo 2021 are:

1. (3) Rafael Nadal: 36.37%
2. (1) Novak Djokovic: 33.98%
3. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas: 6.79%
4. (5) Alexander Zverev: 5.74%
5. (6) Andrey Rublev: 4.89%
6. (7) Diego Schwartzman: 2.98%
7. (8) Matteo Berrettini: 2.61%
8. (2) Daniil Medvedev: 1.22%

Author's pick: Alexander Zverev