2023 F1 Italian GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of running in the 2023 F1 Italian GP ended with a Ferrari on top of the standings with a very closely contested top 6. Carlos Sainz secured the fastest lap from Lando Norris in P2 in the McLaren, surprising many.

Red Bull was in contention once again as both Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen found themselves in the top 5. The race weekend will continue on Saturday with FP3 followed by the all-important qualifying session. So, what can we expect from the 2023 F1 Italian GP qualifying? Here are a few predictions.

#1 The chaotic nature of the track will catch a few out

For reference, fans need to go back and watch the ending of the 2019 F1 Italian GP qualifying or the F2 qualifying on Friday as well. Tow is a major contributing factor for a laptime in Monza and that has not changed. Every driver will be trying to steal one over a lap because the gains are tangible to a large extent.

This is exactly why, in a compressed field like the one we have right now, the drivers that get a tow on their qualifying lap will benefit massively while the others will struggle.

To add to this, the new qualifying format that will be trialed in the 2023 F1 Italian GP is going to cause further confusion as well. Drivers will be forced to use Hard tyres in Q3, Medium tyres in Q2 and Soft tyres in Q1. All in all, we're looking at a session that is going to spring a surprise or two.

#2 Charles Leclerc will secure pole position for the 2023 F1 Italian GP

This is almost wishful thinking because there are clear pitfalls in the way of Charles Leclerc getting a pole position for the Tifossi in attendance. The biggest of them all is Red Bull, a team that pulls off something special whenever it needs to. Then we have the somewhat quirky qualifying session where tow is going to play a major role.

For Charles Leclerc, things do start to go haywire when the team's role increases and that's exactly what's needed on Friday. Having said that, we're being Ferrari fans today and backing Charles Leclerc to overcome all the obstacles to secure a pole position for the 2023 F1 Italian GP.

#3 Mercedes will be unable to secure a top 5 qualifying slot

This prediction might just have a tinge of underestimation of what Mercedes can achieve with Mick Schumacher working away in the simulator but early indications do point towards it.

Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren look out of reach while Williams is a bit of a dark horse here. Alex Albon is in stunning form and he's putting the car in positions that are somewhat inconceivable. In all of this, while Mercedes could make some progress, a top 5 slot looks unlikely for either of the drivers.

#4 Alex Albon will be in the top 10

Alex Albon's recent run has been very impressive. The Williams driver has put together one impressive performance after the other. This weekend, he seems to be a contender for points and the laptime in FP2 on mediums should raise eyebrows. The upper bound limit of the car is still hard to fathom but a top 10 in the 2023 F1 Italian GP qualifying won't be a surprise.

#5 Lance Stroll and the Alpines will not reach Q3

Lance Stroll has essentially not completed a single lap during the 2023 F1 Italian GP weekend. The first session went to Felipe Drugovich and the second session ended prematurely with a reliability issue. With no running on a track where Aston Martin is not super competitive, Stroll might struggle in qualifying.

Alpine on the other hand are expected to struggle this weekend as the sub-par power unit and its deficiencies have been exposed. The team will be hoping for points this weekend but even a top 10 slot in the 2023 F1 Italian GP qualifying seems a stretch at the moment.