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The UFC heads back to Rio de Janeiro this weekend for a pay-per-view event, and while it isn't as stacked as their previous offering, it's still a solid card overall.
UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg naturally has a strong Brazilian flavor, with a flyweight title main event and the return of a legend in the co-headliner.
With any luck we'll be treated to some fun action in the octagon, then, as well as the trademark hot Rio crowd.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg.
#1. UFC flyweight title: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
It's probably fair to suggest that, no offense to the challenger, this is one of the more perplexing UFC title fights in recent years.
Alexandre Pantoja is obviously at the top of his game right now. He claimed the flyweight title from Brandon Moreno last summer, and then defended it impressively against Brandon Royval in December.
On paper at least, 'The Cannibal' has no real weaknesses. He's a sharp striker with knockout power in his hands, he's a remarkably slick grappler who can often find finishes, primarily via chokes, and he's more than capable of pushing a hard pace over five rounds.
Realistically, the only worry he has is that at the age of 34, Father Time may catch up with him soon. For now, though, that hasn't been an issue.
Had the promotion matched him with No.3-ranked Amir Albazi, No.5-ranked Matheus Nicolau (before his loss this past weekend), No.6-ranked Manel Kape or No.7-ranked Muhammad Mokaev, it would've made a lot of sense.
Instead, Dana White and company have given the shot to No.10-ranked Steve Erceg, a mysterious decision to say the least.
That's not to say that 'AstroBoy' is a bad fighter, per say. In fact, the Australian has looked excellent thus far into his octagon career, going 3-0.
His debut win over the highly rated David Dvorak opened a lot of eyes, as he took the fight to 'The Undertaker' with his sharp striking and also surprised him on the ground with some slick skills, too.
However, it was his nasty KO of Matt Schnell that really opened the eyes of the fans, as Erceg lit 'Danger' up with his boxing and dispatched him violently in the second round.
Despite his skills, it's hard not to believe that Erceg is probably getting this shot too quickly, though. Dvorak is good, but he's nowhere near Pantoja's level on the ground, and while Schnell can crack, he also leaves himself wide open - as we saw when 'The Cannibal' also dispatched him in their bout.
Essentially. unless time really has caught up with Pantoja suddenly - and stranger things have happened in MMA - then it's hard to see what Erceg can bring to the table that the Brazilian hasn't seen before.
Assuming he doesn't make a silly error due to being too pumped up in front of his home fans, then, this ought to be Pantoja's fight to lose. Erceg has never been stopped before, but 'The Cannibal' is a consummate finisher and in the Aussie's first title bout, it's hard to imagine him going five rounds.
The Pick: Pantoja via fourth-round submission
#2. UFC bantamweight bout: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Initially, UFC 301 looked like a relatively weak card from a name value perspective, particularly for the Brazilian fans. That all changed when this fight was announced.
Jose Aldo - known as 'The King of Rio' by some fans during his prime years - had hung up his gloves following a loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2022, and it felt like a good decision. After all, the legendary former featherweight kingpin was in his mid-30's and looked past his prime, and had taken his fair share of damage, too.
In reality, though, Aldo's loss to Dvalishvili came in a non-damaging way, as the Georgian largely stifled him rather than hurt him. The loss also snapped a three-fight win streak.
Given Aldo's victims in that streak were Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Marlon Vera, three fighters who remain ranked in the top 15 at 135 pounds, it's definitely arguable that he still has plenty to offer, making this comeback less ill-advised than it initially sounded.
Assuming he hasn't fossilised during his time away, then, Aldo remains dangerous. His boxing always looked sharp, even in his later years, and he still possesses some of the nastiest leg kicks in the game.
So can he still compete at the top? We should find out this weekend, but the fight isn't just about Aldo. It's also a huge opportunity for Jonathan Martinez to collect his biggest scalp to date.
'The Dragon' has been around for a long time, making his octagon debut back in 2018. He's one of those fighters who flew miles under the radar for years, largely due to a couple of disappointing losses.
Right now, though, he's on a lengthy six-fight win streak, including leg kick TKO wins over Cub Swanson and Adrian Yanez.
Martinez is a sharp striker by trade, but the fact that he loves to utilise leg kicks so often is what makes this bout interesting. Obviously Aldo is perhaps the most effective leg kicker in UFC history. So can 'The Dragon' outdo him in those stakes?
In all honesty, this should depend on what version of Aldo shows up. If the Brazilian legend is anywhere near as sharp as he was against Font and Munhoz, he should win.
He's a better technical striker than Martinez, hits harder, and in all honesty, his durability isn't a massive issue given only Petr Yan really outright hurt him on the feet at 135 pounds.
However, there is word that Aldo is simply taking this fight in order to complete his contract with the promotion, and he's outright stated that he's turned down a long-term deal offered to him by Dana White.
If Aldo is going through the motions so to speak, this might be an extremely dangerous bout for him. However, it's hard to see him doing that in front of his home crowd, and the style matchup does favour him. Therefore, the pick is a fairytale ending of sorts.
The Pick: Aldo via decision
#3. UFC 301: The Main Card
In a light heavyweight clash, Anthony Smith faces Vitor Petrino. This is a great fight and it's hard not to respect Smith for taking the bout.
Petrino is one of the hottest prospects in the 205 pounds division, with four octagon wins to his name. It would've been easy for Smith, who is still ranked at No.10 and still has some name value, to dodge such a bout. However, if he'd done that, he wouldn't be 'Lionheart'.
Worryingly for him, though, this does look like a bad match for him. 'Icao' has shown pretty deadly skills in all areas, most recently comfortably outpointing Tyson Pedro, and while Smith was an excellent fighter in his prime, his toughness now appears to be waning at the age of 35.
Smith is still capable of winning fights, as he showed when he beat Ryan Spann in 2023, but his durability appears all but gone now, and that might get him into trouble here. The pick is Petrino via second-round TKO.
In a middleweight tilt, Michel Pereira takes on Ihor Potieria. Initially, this would've seen Pereira taking on Makhmud Muradov, but with 'Mach' injured, Potieria has stepped in on less than a month's notice.
That could well be bad news for 'The Duelist'. He isn't really the explosive athlete that Pereira is to begin with, and since moving to 185 pounds, 'Demolidor' has looked fantastic, dispatching two opponents in style with finishes.
Potieria can definitely crack and so he's got a chance here, particularly as Pereira still leaves himself open. However, the same can definitely be said for the native of Ukraine, too, and fighting openly isn't the best idea against Pereira. The pick, therefore, is Pereira via first-round KO.
Finally, in a middleweight tilt, Paul Craig takes on Caio Borralho. This should be a chance for the underrated Borralho to break out somewhat. 'The Natural' is 5-0 in the UFC and has climbed into the top 15 at 185 pounds, but his perceived dull fighting style has really kept the promotion from pushing him.
If he's going to win this one, then it'll likely be in more flashy style. Craig is willing to push the pace and go against any opponent without caution, and he's more than happy to engage standing and on the ground, too.
Where 'Bearjew' might be in trouble here though is with Borralho's takedowns. He looked excellent against a high-level grappler in Andre Muniz in his middleweight debut, but he's also been beaten on the ground, too, largely due to his willingness to play from the guard.
Craig's reckless nature and aggression should make this one fun, but the more likely outcome is that Borralho keeps top position, works him over and eventually finds an opening. The pick, therefore, is Borralho via third-round submission.
#4. UFC 301: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC featherweight bout: Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito
UFC strawweight bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo
UFC lightweight bout: Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai
UFC featherweight bout: Jean Silva vs. William Gomis
UFC lightweight bout: Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose
UFC lightweight bout: Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey
UFC flyweight bout: Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite
UFC lightweight bout: Vinc Pichel vs. Ismael Bonfim
UFC flyweight bout: Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas
