Indian Wells 2022: Naomi Osaka's projected path to the final

Naomi Osaka will return to action at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells following her unsuccessful title defense at the Australian Open in January. The Japanese will be making her first appearance in the WTA event since 2019.

Osaka won her maiden career title in the California desert four years ago. Since then, she has won four Grand Slam titles and risen to the World No. 1 spot. However, the Japanese heads into the 2022 edition of the event in poor form.

To make matters worse, Osaka has been handed a rather tough draw in Indian Wells. On that note, here's a look at her projected route to the final.

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Naomi Osaka's 1st-round opponent - Sloane Stephens

Osaka will kick off her 2022 Indian Wells campaign against 2017 US Open winner Sloane Stephens. The American recently won her fourth title and owns a positive head-to-head against the former World No. 1 (2-0).

Naomi Osaka's 2nd-round opponent - Veronika Kudermetova

If Osaka beats Stephens, she will face Kudermetova, who has received a bye into the second round.

The Russian has reached two finals this year, at the Melbourne Summer Set and the Dubai Open. She has also done quite well in doubles, winning the title in Dubai and reaching the final in Qatar.

Kudermetova is an aggressive baseliner like Osaka, but she's not as consistent as the Japanese.

Naomi Osaka's likely 3rd-round opponent - Jessica Pegula

After starting the year with consecutive losses, Pegula made it to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. She lost in the second and third rounds in Dubai and Qatar respectively, but has fared well in doubles, winning two titles.

Pegula defeated Osaka the last time they met, but that was on clay, a surface the the 24-year-old Japanese isn't comfortable on.

Naomi Osaka's likely 4th-round opponent - Anett Kontaveit

Osaka could face her biggest test in the fourth round against Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian has been in red-hot form over the last seven months, winning five titles and reaching two finals.

Aside from a second-round exit at the Australian Open, Kontaveit has made it to the business end of every tournament she has competed in.

Unless Osaka summons the form that led her to four Grand Slam titles, it's difficult to see her finding a way past the Estonian.

Naomi Osaka's likely quarterfinal opponent - Jelena Ostapenko / Leylah Fernandez / Paula Badosa

If Osaka gets past Kontaveit, she is likely to face one of Jelena Ostapenko, Leylah Fernandez or Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals.

Badosa is the defending champion in Indian Wells and made a strong start to the season, winning the title in Sydney and reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open. However, early exits in tournaments in the Middle East have halted her momentum.

Fernandez, meanwhile, successfully defended her title in Monterrey over the weekend. The Canadian was also responsible for cutting short Osaka's title defense at the 2021 US Open and will fancy her chances against the Japanese once again.

Ostapenko is also in great form. She won the title in Dubai by defeating four Grand Slam champions and made the semifinals in Qatar and St. Petersburg.

Naomi Osaka's likely semifinal opponent - Maria Sakkari

If Osaka reaches the semifinals, she will likely face Maria Sakkari, who snapped the Japanese's 23-match winning streak at the Miami Open last year. But the former World No. 1 still holds a 3-2 advantage in the head-to-head.

Naomi Osaka's likely opponent in the final - Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek at the 2022 Qatar Open.

Iga Swiatek has been the second-best player on the WTA tour this year, behind only Ashleigh Barty.

She made the semifinals in Adelaide and the Australian Open, before winning the WTA 1000 event in Qatar. She's among the favorites to win the title in Indian Wells too.

Osaka owns a positive head-to-head record against Swiatek, having beaten the Pole in straight sets in the Canadian Open three years ago.