IPL 2014: Fantasy Guru - Don't lose your plot; reserve transfers

The game has just started. I see too many worrying about their points and rank; don’t even look at them till you reach the 30-game mark. Having gone the distance, I can assure you that this particular version of fantasy cricket isn’t child’s play. It is not about how many right moves you make; instead, it is about how many wrong moves you avoid. The transfer count matters. Use them only where you can get the maximum return.

Evaluating the Sunil Narine and Jacques Kallis omissions:

Guru’s team after the RCB vs. KKR match

Regular readers of this blog will be left wondering whether the decision to leave Sunil Narine and Jacques Kallis out of the team for the Royal Challengers Bangalore match, despite them not doing anything worthy as predicted, was a gamble worth having taken.

This is how you evaluate the move or, for that matter, any move that you do in a fantasy game.

In addition to Narine and Kallis’ possible ineffectiveness against RCB, there was one more reason why I did not push for their inclusion: the players that he would have replaced – Brendon McCullum, David Warner and Darren Sammy – all play a match before KKR play their second one against Kings X1 Punjab (one in which the 4th foreign player Glenn Maxwell is also a part of).

Coming back to the method to effectively judge a move,

Points scored by Sunil Narine (72) = Points the player he would have replaced would score in his respective match (in my case, McCullum vs. Mumbai Indians) + the points the new replacement scores in his match(es) (new replacement – who I replace McCullum with after the CSK match)

Assuming you have gone against what I had said, i.e., brought in Narine, all you are left with is 72 points, and, as per my calculation, with KKR not fitting to the ‘Schedule Mantra’ criteria – a 3-match repetitive round ideal for IPL 7 – you would most probably be in a situation to replace him with another overseas player before KKR compete against KXIP. Thereby, it leads to a further waste of transfer.

The fact that they are overseas players who come with costly price-tags means sticking with them for over a 3-match span is extremely difficult and is accompanied by losing out on sure-shot scoring options more often than not.

In case you have planned a way to stick with Narine till he plays against KXIP, you can add on the points that Narine scores in that match, as well, and compare it with my method.

Similarly, you calculate the points for Kallis scenario.

Points scored by Kallis (106) = Points the player he would have replaced would score in his respective match (Warner vs. Delhi Daredevils) + the points the new replacement scores in his match(es) (new replacement – who I replace Warner with after the SRH match)

Sticking with Kallis, at the budget he comes, is a headache, and there would be obviously be losses as a result of it. However, if you were confident with it, you can calculate accordingly as mentioned in the Narine sequence.

The David Warner Powerplayer backlash:

Warner was chosen by me ahead of Glenn Maxwell to captain the Sunrisers Hyderabad vs. KXIP fixture. What happened then – Warner scored some 20-odd as compared to Maxwell who scored 200-odd points – doesn’t change my opinion in anyway. There was sound logic behind what I did and why I did, as explained in the article related to it. First of all, I did not expect Maxwell to flop; I expected Warner to outscore Maxwell. While I can’t speak for Warner messing it up, as I can’t play for him, the fears regarding Maxwell should have been realised when he did what he did after being given 3 lifelines: a dropped catch, out of a no ball, and a miscued shot, where the ball appeared to be in the skies for around 15 seconds only for it to fall on no-man’s land.

He rode his luck, and I can’t account for it.

Let us not even get into Shikhar Dhawan not bringing on Dale Steyn, whom Maxwell struggled to score off. While I know Dhawan’s captaincy rivals with George Bailey in terms of having little clue on how they go about their business, this was a new low: referring to it as a schoolboy error would be an understatement.

I do not like to discuss about the moves that I make after the events get over, as looking at the results in hindsight is one of the dim-witted things to do in any aspect of life. I standby every single move I have taken so far. If you have a counter-argument prior to the match, I am all ears. But I don’t care about what you think of the move after the match.

Sunrisers Hyderabad vs. Delhi Daredevils:

Guru’s team for the SRH vs. DD match

Transfer made – 0; Transfer available – 60

Captain – Amit MishraKarn Sharma in – Yuzvendra Chahal out

I badly hope Sunrisers get back on track right from this match, for they have the potential and I have my team ready without making any substituions. With a choice made between Warner and Aaron Finch ahead of their previous fixture and Darren Sammy and Amit Mishra in my team, I don’t really see the need for any other player.

For those who have not followed me so far, you can very well go ahead with Finch ahead of Warner. It is just that I have to choose one of the two, whom I see as making it big, and I have opted for the New South Wales southpaw.

Dale Steyn – Neither is he going to run through oppositions nor is he consistently exceptional at death like Malinga, and hence him being an overseas player keeps me away from depending on him.

Delhi Daredevils:

With Kevin Pietersen most likely to play and the franchise in the middle of a horror run, the Daredevils will undergo a massive change in their set-up for the next match.

As a result, Mayank Agarwal, Jimmy Neesham, Ross Taylor and Manoj Tiwary may be dropped; Kevin Pietersen may open or bat at No. 4 depending upon Quinton de Kock’s inclusion; and JP Duminy may be demoted to 6 (if one of Saurabh Tiwary/Kedar Jadhav is employed as floaters). None of their bowlers stand out, more so with Nathan Coulter-Nile’s injury.

Do you really want to pick a player from this team at this point of time? I don’t even consider it as an option.

However, if Pietersen continues to remain unfit, JP Duminy must be a part of your playing 11, as he will play a crucial role in deciding the fate of the match.

Uncapped player:

Even if Agarwal plays, it will take minutes for Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Dale Steyn to sort him out. Jadhav, who is most likely to play, is one of the brightest batting prospects in India, although he has to play in the top 4 to have an effect.

How do we know where Daredevils have planned to play him without watching a match with him being a part of it? So, he remains out for this match.

Lokesh Rahul is quite handful batting at No. 4, but I don’t see him playing a big part in the match with a possible top 3 and Darren Sammy dominance on the cards.

So, it comes down to Shahbaz Nadeem vs. Karn Sharma. Nadeem, a left-arm spinner, can be expected to have a difficult time against Shikhar Dhawan and David Warner (two lefties), which turns me towards Karn Sharma.

Chennai Super Kings vs. Mumbai Indians:

Guru’s team for the CSK vs. MI match

Transfer made – 2; Transfer available – 58

Captain – Suresh Raina

Rohit Sharma in – Amit Mishra outKieron Pollard in – David Warner outYuzvendra Chahal in – Karn Sharma out (uncapped player trick employed for budget and tactical reasons)

I have 3 players already in my team who feature in this fixture: McCullum, Suresh Raina and Ambati Rayudu. One player who will walk into my team in any Mumbai Indians match, unless he is in a poor run of form, will be Rohit Sharma, for reasons already mentioned in my previous articles.

While I stuck with Michael Hussey in the first two matches, it is not yet sure he has found his touch back. Having already picked him twice only to see him flop, I am not ready to take the risk again. One thing is for sure: being the class act that he is, he will start scoring bulk of runs soon. Once we get a clear picture of it, let him get back into the team.

McCullum vs. Dwayne Smith:

This was a decision made well ahead of McCullum’s horror shows in the last couple of matches. Again, as I said, I stand by it, as I really don’t see how one is better than the other. Both have similar strengths and weaknesses. If one can succeed, other can, too. Just that it has so far happened to be the West Indian. You really can’t say reasons such as McCullum is out of form, that too after how he started the IPL 7, and that Dwayne can bring points with his bowling. MS Dhoni did not use him with the ball in the Rajasthan Royals match, which shows the unpredictability surrounding his bowling chances.

All these factors apart, it would make zero sense to have McCullum replaced with Smith now. I have made a decision, and, with no cases of Schedule Mantra anywhere close, I stick to it for logical purposes as well as for sanity to prevail.

Du Plessis at No. 4 doesn’t quite seem the player he is as an opener, and Chennai will do well to understand it. MS Dhoni is a tempting option, with the CSK openers’ weakness against Pragyan Ojha (left-arm spin). However, after his flop show at No. 5 against Rajasthan Royals, I doubt that whether he will be positive enough to stick to the position or play safe by promoting Ravindra Jadeja or Mithun Manhas.

Ravichandran Ashwin against Rayudu, Rohit and Hussey wouldn’t reap high rewards. If you really consider including Jadeja as a part of playing 11 just because he produced a match-winning performance, I advise a few weeks off from playing fantasy cricket (note: this will hold true even if Jadeja scores 75 and picks up 5 wickets against Mumbai). You should never pick an all-rounder who bats at 6 in a batting-heavy team and bowls spin against good players of slow bowling.

The rise of Kieron Pollard:

Kieron Pollard, who is sure to bat at No. 5 no matter what happens and bowl a few overs, is a gamble worth taking against CSK’s weak death bowling unit. It gains further weight when you consider the fact that MI batsmen haven’t been delivering and the team follows up with a match against Delhi Daredevils soon. Although Mumbai Indians’ two matches don’t fit the Schedule Mantra, you should have noticed me mentioning an exception to the rule in a 4-match round: it is when you see heavy scoring opportunities in both the matches, and I see it here. So, I will be taking him in. The way he hit Yuzvendra Chahal indicated he is in some form, although he fell to a brilliant catch at the deep.

Stay out, ‘Slinga’ Malinga:

Raina, Dhoni, McCullum: All of them can play Malinga; infact, they can slog him well. Smith and Faf are not mugs, as well. Jadeja knows his ways. Why do I need Malinga here?

Although Ojha stands a good chance of picking up a couple of wickets in the match, the fact that the next MI match is being played at Sharjah, a good batting wicket, makes him unworthy of a spot. He is neither a Narine to worry about while leaving out of the team nor is a fantasy managers’ favourite to affect us so much.

No other bowler from both sides look good enough to me.

Uncapped player spot: Aditya Tare would find it difficult to escape the new-ball threat that Ishwar Pandey and Ben Hilfenhaus pose. The only other uncapped player Pandey is in the team already. So, the uncapped player trick is employed here. Bring in Yuzvendra Chahal.

Before going into the next match or, rather, the day, I need to make this clear:

The mess that Shane Watson, Chris Gayle and Jacques Kallis, Kieron Pollard turn your team into:

I wanted to have all of them in my team, as I see good scoring opportunities for them. When I looked for ways to get them in, my transfers came down from 60 to 50 after the Kolkata Knight Riders vs. KXIP game. It would be foolish to go all out this early into the season.

This is the probability of them succeeding:

Kallis > Pollard > Watson > Gayle

I decided to go for Pollard alone, as he is both the cheapest and the fastest to play the second match. While he might fail against the CSK spinners in his first fixture, the second against Daredevils promises so much.

Looking at the other individuals,

To a Shane Watson coming in at No. 4, Yuzvendra Chahal is the only real threat against RCB. Remember, I have only had him in my team when he has fired (and that includes the T20 World Cup 2014, as well): against KXIP. I see an opportunity for him again in an Abu Dhabi pitch that doesn’t do much in the afternoon games.

Now that I can’t afford, let’s hope Chahal nails him.

Chris Gayle, should he play, will bring in a lot of complexity, as he is totally worthy of a spot, too, again considering it is an afternoon game. Had he played the last match, as mentioned in my previous article, I would have got him in straightaway. Now, with RCB scheduled to play their second match only after a span of four matches, it is not that obvious.

Now that I can’t afford him, let’s hope he doesn’t get fit or the variety in Rajasthan Royals attack proves to be too much for him.

Jacques Kallis against KXIP is the most certain pick. Against a weak bowling attack, he should be assured of a half-century and backed to pick up a couple of wickets with the kind of pressure that Narine sends down from the other end.

Now that I can’t afford him, let’s hope Mitchell Johnson catches him off-guard early in the innings, and Glenn Maxwell and David Miller go berserk on his bowling.

I may add one of the them depending upon the proceedings. If I do, I will update here after the toss. However, to keep them away and use the transfer when points will be more easy to come without disturbing the team too much appears to be the way to go.

Rajasthan Royals vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore:

Guru’s team for the RR vs. RCB match

Transfer made – 1; Transfer available – 57

Captain – Virat Kohli

Sunil Narine in – Brendon McCullum out (Tactical substitution to accomodate Manish Pandey for the next match)Akshar Patel in – Ishwar Pandey out

With Virat Kohli, Sanju Samson and Chahal in the team, I don’t see the need for any other player from this match, given the problems that Watson and Gayle pose to the team combination and budget. AB de Villiers playing at 5 is great for us fantasy players, as we can keep him out every single time without worrying about how many points he can bring for us.

Ajinkya Rahane is a shrewd Schedule Mantra pick, but he doesn’t merit a spot when RR play a single match. Even in his best days, he can only give 100 points.

Uncapped player pick:

Tambe and Bhatia would be bowling against Kohli and De Villiers. Even Gayle and Yuvraj Singh won’t have any problem with them. Dhawal Kulkarni without swing isn’t worthy of a spot. Yogesh Takawale is not good enough to score on a consistent basis in T20s. Therefore, Chahal looks the best bet. Since I have Chahal already, I bring in Akshar Patel into the team.

Kolkata Knight Riders vs. Kings 11 Punjab:

Guru’s team for the KKR vs. KXIP match

Transfer made – 0; Transfer available – 57

Manish Pandey in – Sanju Samson out

Sunil Narine would be the first player to walk into my team for this fixture. Maxwell, finally, would have a torrid time against the West Indian spinner, although he would find out a way to tackle him someday down the line. However, having not played him as much as he would have liked to till now, there should be no way on earth he can tackle Narine’s mystery this time around. Miller is no exception either.

Chris Lynn appears to be a decent option. This is the same Lynn who struggled to put bat to ball in the Champions League T20 2013 matches, though. Batting in Sharjah is different from batting in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, more so when they are the night matches. We need to wait to gauge if he has grown some brains in trying to see through the difficult phases, which he didn’t last year. Also, will he always be sent in at number 4 ahead of Robin Uthappa? This is one question that puts both of them out of contention for now.

Gautam Gambhir will be determined to show what he is made of after the shocking performances in the first three matches…No, I am just kidding. Mitchell Johnson is likely to get him for the fourth consecutive duck.

Uncapped player: Bring in Manish Pandey. If he survives Mitchell Johnson, we are in for some real points in this match.

Fantasy League:

As per the demand, an official IPL fantasy league has been created. Come, join, and have fun while I plan for ways to make our league more interactive.

League name – FantasyMattersLeague code – 59270