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Real Madrid will have to make yet another extraordinary comeback to beat Manchester City in the semi-final second leg of the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday to reach the final.
A week ago at the Etihad, it looked like Real Madrid were going to get battered and bruised by a much superior side. Manchester City raced to a 3-1 lead by the 53rd minute and it was mostly one-way traffic until then. But then the sleeping giants awoke and poked back.
Vinicius Jr. and Karim Benzema each added a goal to bookend Bernardo Silva's 74th minute strike strike for Manchester City. The game ended 4-3 to set up an absolutely delectable second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu tonight.
Despite Manchester City's slender lead, our money is on Madrid. Without further ado, let's take a look at five reasons why Real Madrid will win against Manchester City tonight.
#5 Real Madrid have home advantage
Let's start with the most obvious one here. There is something about the historic Santiago Bernabeu stadium and the atmosphere there that never lets Real Madrid give up. Carlo Ancelotti's side beat Espanyol 4-0 at the weekend to clinch their 35th La Liga title at their home ground.
The celebrations are still ongoing and the focus has entirely shifted to the Champions League now. The Madrid faithful will egg their team onto producing something special like they did against Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea.
Los Blancos overturned a 2-0 deficit against PSG in the Champions League Round of 16. After winning the first leg of the quarter-finals against Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, Madrid fell behind as the Blues ran rampant at the Bernabeu, taking a 3-0 lead and thus leading the tie 4-3 on aggregate.
But Madrid bounced back to level the game on aggregate in normal time before Benzema scored the winner for them in extra-time. Special things have been happening at the Santiago Bernabeu and tonight could be no different.
#4 Real Madrid's Champions League pedigree
Real Madrid have been the most dominant team in Europe in the last decade. There is something about the competition that makes them punch above their weight even when they are being outplayed.
For long spells during the game against Paris Saint-Germain and even in the second leg of the quarter-final against Chelsea, Los Blancos were getting dominated. It didn't look like they could muster something special.
But Madrid have a lot of history when it comes to the Champions League and the occasion always helps them produce magical moments. Ahead of the semi-final second leg against Manchester City, Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville pointed out the same. He said:
"Real Madrid have a spirit in the Champions League that City don't. It's a big moment for City - a very big moment. Manchester City haven't got that Champions league spirit yet, that history. They've struggled to come to terms with the competition, the fans have in terms of the early days getting used to it."
#3 Real Madrid have already produce huge comebacks this season
Real Madrid's 3-2 win (on aggregate) over Paris Saint-Germain and their 4-3 win (on aggregate) over Chelsea have shown us one thing: you can never write Madrid off, especially in the Champions League.
Against PSG, Madrid scored three goals in the last 30 minutes of the game to absolutely stun their opponents. Chelsea must have believed that they had the quarter-final tie sealed, as they led by a goal heading into the final 15 minutes of the second leg.
Manchester City carry a slender one-goal lead to the Santiago Bernabeu tonight. They will need to produce a sensational performance to keep Madrid at bay on their home turf.
#2 Pep Guardiola tends to overcomplicate things in crunch scenarios
Pep Guardiola is one of the greatest managers and tacticians of all time. Guardiola's record in the knockout stages of the Champions League has not really been great since his Barcelona stint.
Of course, he took his side to the final last year and City were overwhelming favorites heading into the showdown against Chelsea. But Guardiola's side capitulated and Chelsea were crowned champions of Europe.
Guardiola's Bayern Munich lost 5-0 on aggregate to Los Blancos in the 2013-14 Champions League semi-final. The Bavarians' infamous 5-3 (on agg.) loss to Barcelona the following season after leading 3-2 heading into the second leg was also overseen by Guardiola.
There are plenty more such instances. Manchester City's losses against Monaco, Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid and Olympique Lyon have all exposed Guardiola's tendency to overcomplicate things during crunch scenarios.
He should just let his side play their natural game as they are simply one of the most talented units in the world right now. But Pep being Pep, we can't be very certain he'll do that.
#1 Manchester City will have to deal with the Karim Benzema factor
There is no need to elaborate on this at this point in the season. Karim Benzema scored a 17-minute hat-trick to help Los Blancos win against PSG in the Round of 16. He then scored a hat-trick against Chelsea in the first leg of the quarter-finals.
The Frenchman didn't stop there as he went onto score Los Blancos' winner in the second leg as well. Benzema also bagged a brace in the first leg of the semi-final against Manchester City.
The 34-year-old has scored 42 goals and provided 13 assists in 42 appearances across all competitions so far this season. We're talking about one of the most in-form players in the world right now. Manchester City better have a plan for Benzema or they will not even know what hit them.
