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Just a season ago, the Buffalo Bills looked like a dark horse Super Bowl winner with a complete, stacked roster led by QB Josh Allen. They won the AFC East at 13-3 and made it all the way to the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Buffalo had five Pro Bowlers and five All-Pros, including Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs and CB Tre'Davious White. Head coach Sean McDermott and his coaching staff are underrated in the NFL, but it's just a matter of time before the Bills return to the Super Bowl. Allen and his offense have returned, with WR Emmanuel Sanders and QB Mitchell Trubisky joining the ranks.
The defense will hopefully be able to finally take the next step, with potential in AJ Epenesa, Ed Oliver and rookie Greg Rousseau. Here are five bold takes on the 2021 season for the Buffalo Bills.
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#1 Buffalo Bills' defense to finish top 5 in sacks, top 10 against the run
There is a ton of untapped potential on the defensive line with Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa, Efe Obada and Jerry Hughes. They drafted EDGE Greg Rousseau and LB Carlos 'Boogie' Basham to add even more pressure up front.
The Buffalo Bills had the fourth-most QB pressure, but ended up with the 15th-most sacks (38). They allowed the 16th-most rushing yards in 2020, falling in the middle of the pack. More pressure on the QB means an increase in the ability to get around the OL. Getting through the OL results in more tackles for loss and stuffing the run gaps.
LB AJ Klein led the team in sacks last year (5), but he's the wrong person to be getting to the QB the most. DE Mario Addison (five sacks) led the team with seven tackles for loss. The second and third-year players need to make an impact in 2021 for this team to be considered a top-tier contender in the AFC.
#2 Buffalo Bills to get through a tough playoff run to reach the Super Bowl
The Buffalo Bills haven't appeared in the Super Bowl since 1994 when they had four consecutive losses. 0-4 in four years is both impressive and haunting. In 2020, the Bills came up short against Patrick Mahomes' lightning-fast offense.
Buffalo and Kansas City are still the top two teams in the AFC heading into the season, and have the best odds among AFC teams to win the Super Bowl: Kansas City at +450, Buffalo at +1100.
The AFC East will be more competitive this year, but the Buffalo Bills have become a superior team. It's not a sure thing to get the No.1 seed, so the Bills will have to defeat three teams to reach the Super Bowl.
Based on the projected win-loss records, the Bills (#2 seed) could have to go through Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and then Patrick Mahomes to get to the Super Bowl. Getting through those three QBs and offenses should make the Bills the favorites in the Super Bowl, though.
#3 Success from the offense and Mitchell Trubisky's transformation to put Brian Daboll in line for a head coaching job
The Buffalo Bills were third in passing yards and 20th in rushing yards last year. The Bills should still be a top-five team in passing, and should greatly improve on the ground with Devin Singletary, Zach Moss and Josh Allen's mobility.
Part of the success comes from OC Brian Daboll's playcalling, and he has already caught attention for how well Mitchell Trubisky has been in preseason. A top-10 overall offense, with Mitchell Trubisky becoming a legitimate QB again, will shine a light on Daboll as a candidate to lead a team in 2022.
He may not leave Buffalo in 2022, but should still get calls from potential teams in need of a new coach, such as the LA Rams, Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings.
#4 Buffalo Bills could struggle in divisional play
The Buffalo Bills open their season against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and play the NFC South and AFC South. They also face Washington, Kansas City and Tennessee along with their AFC East rivals.
Their Week-1 opener will be a tough match to begin the season, but they should sneak a win. Buffalo play Miami right after that, and could get upset. Then there are two easy matches against Washington and Houston before they face the Chiefs. The Bills will likely lose there.
The Bills should defeat the Titans before their bye week. There is a five-game stretch where the Bills could gain as many wins: Miami, Jacksonville, Jets, Indianapolis and New Orleans. They have their first match against the Patriots which they could lose to their defense, followed by a loss to Tampa Bay.
Their season could end with a win over Carolina, another loss to New England, a win over Atlanta and a potential loss in the finale against the Jets if they rest starters for the playoffs. A 12-5 record seems likely for the Buffalo Bills in 2021.
#5 Buffalo Bills to lose to Kansas City and Tampa Bay by fewer than three points
The Buffalo Bills will, unfortunately,y play both Super Bowl teams from 2020 during the regular season. Kansas City in Week 5 will be one of the highest-rated games that week, and could be a shootout.
With Kansas City's speed, the Bills could fall short of an upset over Mahomes. Tampa Bay in Week 14 could be more of a defensive game with both QBs playing efficiently. Allen is good, but he's not Tom Brady-level.
Tom Brady could give some respect to the young QB, though after a hard-fought battle. Buffalo could end up facing both teams again in the playoffs, and will at least have a bit more insight about them in Round 2.
