RR or SRH - which team has a better chance of finishing in the top two of IPL 2024?

The Rajasthan Royals (RR) have gone from hoping to secure a place in Qualifier 1 to just settling for the Eliminator after their unprecedented four-match losing streak. It has given the SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH) to shoot past them if they win their remaining matches.

After amassing 16 points as early as April itself, RR's slump poetically started at the hands of SRH. The then-league leaders lost a last-ball thriller to Pat Cummins and company, and have now even lost to the struggling Punjab Kings (PBKS). Performance in the second half of the IPL has been a concern for the franchise in the recent past, as a similar slump cost them a place in the playoffs last season.

Although they have secured qualification, courtesy of Lucknow Super Giants' (LSG) defeat to the Delhi Capitals (DC) recently, that does not guarantee them a top-two spot. SRH, on the other hand, will be keen on capitalizing on RR's woes to leapfrog them in the table and have two shots at the final.

On that note, let us take a look at which team among RR and SRH has a better chance of finishing in the top two of IPL 2024.

Remaining matches

Rajasthan Royals do not have fate in their own hands. Even if they manage to defeat table-toppers Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) in their final league-stage match in Guwahati, they will have to settle for third place if the SunRisers Hyderabad win their last set of matches. SRH have a superior net run rate of +0.406, and it gives them the advantage if both are level on 18 points.

However, if RR lose their final match, and SRH also lose one of their remaining two matches, then the margins of the defeats will be taken into consideration. In this case, SRH have a slight headstart, but RR also play the last league match of the season, so they will be aware of the numbers, and can at least attempt to have a go at it.

Assessing the remaining matches is a near-futile endeavor in IPL, considering how any team can beat any team on any given day. PBKS' recent triumph over RR is a testament to this fact. SRH will play against two sides that have already been knocked out of the tournament - the Gujarat Titans (GT) and the Punjab Kings (PBKS).

The former recently defeated the Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and will be on the lookout to sign off on a high. The difference between their standings on the points table is close to being irrelevant as GT will be playing for their pride, and won't be willing to bend over.

SRH's final match of the league stage will be against the Punjab Kings (PBKS), and the biggest takeaway is the fact that the latter will be without almost their entire overseas contingent. The likes of Sam Curran and Jonny Bairstow have also left for England, leaving PBKS with only Rilee Rossouw, Chris Woakes, and Nathan Ellis as options. Taming a hungry SRH side with such a weakened squad will be an uphill task for PBKS.

RR are technically the most out-of-form side in the league, with four consecutive losses under their belt. No franchise wishes to enter the playoffs with such a run, especially in the Eliminator. RR's imperious squad and their ability gives them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the law of averages, but they would not want to rely on such an arbitrary aspect. Although, they will have the belief that they are only one good performance away from being back to their best in the long run.

However, Jos Buttler's absence, and Yashasvi Jaiswal's shaky form, among other factors complicate things for RR.

SRH are also not exactly cruising, having lost three of their last five matches. However, they do head into their final set of matches on the back of a resounding win over LSG. A couple of wins to conclude their league stage to prolong their form will be the perfect way for SRH to enter the playoffs.

Home factor

SRH have a distinct advantage over RR because they play their remaining matches at home. The Pat Cummins-led side have had a solid record at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, only losing once all season in five matches. Some of their most destructive performances have come on home soil, while the support the team has attained at the venue is among the best in the entire league.

Although RR are also playing at 'home', in reality, they could not be far from it. The franchise are playing their last two matches at the Barsapara Cricket Stadium in Guwahati, where they have won one match, and lost two.

To conclude, after considering all factors, the odds are in favor of SRH finishing in the top two over RR in IPL 2024.