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In one of the most busiest transfer windows you could ever imagine, English clubs have so far eclipsed other leagues in terms of money spent and quality acquired. The argument of English teams lacking the character to challenge other leagues, after bowing out early in the European front last season, might not live long enough for fans to brag about.
The phase teams in England are going through, the Germans are already past it and the Spanish are at the start of it. Call it rebuilding or transition, every club has to have such a period. But if we observe the statistics of the Champions League over the past 8 years, 72% of the teams in the semifinals have been from England or Spain. To be exact, 23 out of 32 teams have been from the two countries, and if we break those down, English teams have appeared 12 times and Spanish 11.
So what do all these numbers justify? If we take a closer look, on the periods of dominance of a particular league over the past 8 years, we see that, between 2006 and 2009, 3 of the 4 teams in the semifinals have been from England, with Chelsea and Manchester United featuring in all of them and Liverpool in two of them.
While the representation from the Premier League has fallen over the past 4 seasons, the Germans and the Spanish have taken the baton, Chelsea’s triumph in 2012 being an exception.
If we come down to the team level, Barcelona have been the most consistent of all, thanks to a certain Argentine, going on to win the competition 3 times. Manchester United and Chelsea share the honors as the second most consistent teams with 1 win in 4 semifinal appearances. Madrid and Bayern follow with 3 appearances each, but Madrid failed to win in any season, contrary to Bayern, who are the current champions of Europe.
English teams were imperious over a 3 year spell, but managed to win only once, in 2008 and later in 2012. They have been in the reconstructing phase ever since. While Barcelona was, and is, a regular face, Real Madrid came into light with Mourinho in charge. They still are capable of challenging for a semis berth under Carlo Ancelotti.
The German teams, on the other hand, have been lurking around with not so much dominance, and now taken the European elite for a ride. With Bayern Munich knocking on the glory door in the past 4 seasons and finally winning it last term, and Dortmund rising to prominence with more traditional upbringings, one can say that a period of German superiority has indeed started.
The figure shows the number of teams in UCL semis from each league in a particular season.
The Italians, who were ever present in almost every season, are in the most unimaginable state at the moment. Cash strapped and scandal hit, the Serie A has endured a lot of hardships and is just not ready to take on the present elite teams across Europe.
Though Juventus have a much better financial model among the Calcio teams, they lack experience to go the distance. Then there is the case of Paris St. Germain. Ancelotti’s tenure lasted only a year after Madrid came calling, and new man on the block Laurent Blanc has to fill in some heavy boots.
PSG were impressive against Barcelona in the Champions League, but lacked that world class element to get a win. This time around, PSG has a much better team, as they just can’t stop spending. Edinson Cavani (world class) will make the life of opposition defenders miserable as he tries to make his mark.
Now that we have established a theory, lets move on to the practicals. There has been some major movement between the big clubs, with managers getting replaced and also a lot of player movement, particularly strikers.
Previously, we have seen the transfer of managers and their impact on the European stage. Now lets have a brief look into how strong the top leagues are, and chances of their teams making it into the last four of the Champions League.
Spain is going through the worst possible economic crisis, and naturally, the football activities too have taken a huge hit. This new season, the stadiums will be merely half full and the clubs have done no good to themselves over the past decade, in economic terms.
The massive debt accumulated is forcing players to move out of Spain. Only some stern and desperate measures can save La Liga from imploding. Even though Barcelona and Real Madrid have huge debts, they have already spent large sums on new players this summer.
Illaramendi unveiled as a Real Madrid player
With the English and French leagues leading in the transfer market, La Liga will have to suffice with resources available within. According to the current figures, the Spanish league has a net positive balance of 68.5 million pounds in this transfer window, with some very good players moving to other leagues.
The major spenders are obviously the Clasico clubs, spending about £60 million each, with Barcelona bringing in a new face from Brazil, Neymar. It is probably the most fanciest signing and has the potential to pool in some more money from the viewership and sponsors front, not only for Barcelona but for the whole league as well. Real Madrid on the other hand, chose to tap local talent in the form of Isco and Illaramendi, and stand as firm favorites to win the league this season.
When we apply our dominance theory to the Spanish league, we halt abruptly at the very first step. It has been a two-club league from a long time, and continues to be, for the foreseeable future and both the teams have an equal chance of making it to the semifinals in Europe, thanks to the quality they possess. So we can expect to see both the clubs putting up a good challenge with some epic midweek nights.
Serie A
Reeling under similar circumstances as Spain, Italy too has not had a good period in terms of economy. But, they had already hit rock bottom last season, with the match fixing scandal and recession crippling them simultaneously. The Italian league is now recovering and they stand third in the money spent in the transfer window, behind EPL and Ligue 1.
Surprisingly, Roma has been the highest spender with £40 million and Napoli following closely with £37 million. Most of that revenue came from the sale of high profile players to other leagues. In spite of such cash splash, the Serie A has a net positive balance of £17 million, which is a good thing.
Tevez in his new colors
Juventus have only gotten better from last season, as they now have some ‘real’ strikers in Tevez and Llorente. They should pose considerable threat to the elite clubs, and are capable of claiming that semis berth.
Napoli too have a decent squad, and with Benitez as their coach, they might have an easy ride up to the quarters, but will have to pull off a miracle to go a step further. Nothing more can be expected from the Italian league, as it is clearly in the phase of rebuilding, and it will take few more years to reach that Europe dominating period.
Bundesliga
The Germans are the real deal in today’s world. Dortmund’s heroics last season earned them a huge fan base across the world, and the league as a whole will be benefited with the increased TV revenue from every corner.
The all German Champions League final in May, paved way for the spell of German dominance of Europe. All these positive outcomes are a result of some calculated and intelligent planning by the German FA back in 2003. Germany is one of those countries trying to get nations like Greece and Spain out of the financial crisis, and football has a special place for the administrators of the country.
The meticulous planning of building a local youth setup all across Germany has paid fruitful dividends. With not much spending, and an array of home-grown talent at their disposal, the Bundesliga clubs need not worry about financial troubles for the next decade.
Gotze’s Bayern introduction
Dubbed as the most unpredictable league on the planet, the Bundesliga has the potential to create teams capable of winning the Champions League. Dortmund is an example of this scenario. There has always been the debate on allotment of 4 Champions league slots to the Germans and less to Italy, and the protesters have their answer now.
Bayern Munich, who have been consistently reaching the finals of the UCL, are now a more dangerous and fearsome force under Pep Guardiola. There is no doubt that they are the best team in the world at the moment, and teams have to stage the play of their lives to beat Guardiola and Co.
The German league is past the rebuilding stage and is now stamping its authority over other leagues with some attractive young talent. The World Cup next summer will surely be a stage where the Germans will want to excel and help extend the notion of the dominance, further.
English Premier League
Standing at the top of the spending charts and holding a net negative balance of £267 million, the English clubs appear to have made Platini and his UEFA team look like a bunch of jokers. With an overhaul of managers in the top 3 teams from last season and a few changes elsewhere down the table, the clubs in England have spent a lot on some very good talent.
The EPL, being the most watched league on the planet, gets most of its income from TV deals across the globe. And the decision to split the money almost equally among the 20 teams has resulted in bottom half teams spending more money than usual, and making the league more competitive and interesting to watch.
Almost every team has had some activity in the market, Newcastle being the only exception. Manchester City has spent £98 million already on 4 new players, players who can possibly help them reach the UCL semis. Chelsea too have a few new personnel, but have been conservative till now, with an expenditure of £27 million.
Liverpool, Tottenham, Swansea, Southampton and Norwich have had a good time in the market. Coming to the practicality of EPL clubs in UCL, the transition is in the final phase and we can expect another Champions League trophy in England in the next 3 years.
While Chelsea and Manchester City are the front runners for the semifinal berth this time, Arsenal might be the bogey team, who are capable of pulling off miracles at times. But first, they need to tackle the qualifiers.
Ligue 1
Once, there was Lyon, and then there was Marseille, who would occasionally pop up in the quarters or in the semis of the Champions League. But then came PSG and oil money and hence started, an episode of monopoly in France.
Last season, PSG were impressive, and this time they have Cavani, Digne and Marquinhos. The youngest club in world football has paid no heed to the FFP regulations put out by the UEFA, and have gone out to acquire whomever they wanted in the market.
While this might hit back in their faces sooner rather than later, PSG don’t appear like a club with a long term plan of sustainability. One can only wait and see.
Observing the financials of the transfer market for the French league, new player AS Monaco has a major chunk of the expenditure on its head. The newly promoted club have spent £126 million and their aim is to dethrone PSG from the French throne.
Coming to the UCL, PSG will give good competition up to the quarter-finals, but they lack the depth and experience to go any further. But, a further cash splash can result in tables turning PSG’s way. With money, anything is possible.
From the above analysis, we see that there are about 7 teams which possess the calibre to reach the semifinals of the Champions League. But with only 4 spots up for grabs, there surely will be some high profile, scintillating match-ups in the quarter-final stage.
All this contribute to yet another memorable Champions League experience. The initial qualifying rounds have already started and September is not far away.
