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The road to WWE Money in the Bank 2023 is well and truly underway. Both ladder matches are starting to take shape. While the rest of the matches on the card haven't been announced, fans have a vague idea of the promotion's creative direction.
After what will surely be a wild night at the O2 Arena, two superstars will have a golden chance to challenge any champion of their choosing for up to a year. Not only will they have a ticket to glory in their hands, but they will also be able to cash in on their target at any time. This is reminiscent of another golden ticket in WWE's arsenal, one with more tradition and prestige: winning The Royal Rumble.
So which of these two iconic star-making opportunities is a safer bet to win the world title? Here are two reasons why it's Money in the Bank and two why it's the Royal Rumble:
#2 Winning the Royal Rumble is the safest bet because it has WrestleMania implications
Winning the Money in the Bank contract earns you a shot at any title whenever you choose (in kayfabe). This means that the company could decide to have a performer cash in on a random episode of RAW or the main event of WrestleMania. While this may seem like a dream, it could become a nightmare, as an unsuccessful cash-in on a small stage dooming a star to obscurity.
Winning the Royal Rumble earns you a WWE world championship shot at the company's biggest show of the year, WrestleMania. The victor is guaranteed to compete on The Grandest Stage of Them All. With the exception of John Cena, who used his shot at No Way Out 2008, all Rumble winners have gone on to have a world title match at The Show Of Shows.
Even in that case, The Cenation Leader ended up in a world title match at WrestleMania XXIV. Conversely, only one MITB cash-in has occurred at The Show Of Shows.
#2 Money in the Bank winners have historically had a better success rate than Royal Rumble winners
There have been 28 Money in the Bank cash-in attempts in the bout's 18-year history. Of those, 23 successfully cashed in. This makes for an 82% probability of becoming a WWE world champion once you gain possession of the briefcase.
The Royal Rumble, meanwhile, began having world title implications in 1992, when Ric Flair won one of the greatest editions of all time. 38 winners later, 24 have won a world championship through the match itself or the resulting WrestleMania title shot, while 14 have failed that challenge. This gives Rumble winners a 63% probability of becoming world champions, making MITB a safer immediate bet.
#1 Winning the Royal Rumble is the safest bet because MITB winners sometimes don't even get a WWE world title match
From the point above, Money in the Bank may seem to have an overwhelming case as the safest bet to win a WWE world championship. However, It's worth noting that 92% of Royal Rumble winners have held a world title at some point in their careers, compared to 84% for MITB. Even worse for the iconic briefcase, three of its holders never got to use it in a world title match at all.
Mr. Kennedy and Otis lost their contracts to Edge in 2007 and The Miz in 2020, respectively, both of whom went on to cash in successfully. Austin Theory, the most recent holder of the men's contract, used his shot on a mid-card title, that too unsuccessfully.
Meanwhile, since the 30-man Battle Royal became a vehicle to world championship gold, all Rumble winners have had their chance to challenge for a top title.
#1 Money in the Bank is the safer bet to win a WWE world championship because it can be cashed in at any time and anywhere
As much prestige as winning the Royal Rumble carries, Money in the Bank has one advantage the iconic 30-man match can never top: unpredictability. Everyone in the WWE Universe, including the targeted champion, knows where and when the Rumble winner will take their shot. Both titleholder and challenger arrive on the grandest stage, rested, prepared, and primed for battle.
Comparatively, only the MITB contract holder (in kayfabe) knows when they intend to cash in, and they have a year to change their mind. The ability to pick and choose their moment, often cashing in on the prone champion after a grueling title defense. This gives the challenger a massive advantage over the world champion, making it the safest bet to win a world championship in WWE.
